Piast Gliwice 0-1 Zaglebie Lubin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Piast Gliwice at 62%, yet other data sources diverge — this Piast Gliwice vs Zaglebie Lubin fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Zaglebie Lubin make the trip to Stadion Miejski to face Piast Gliwice in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 7. The match kicks off on Sunday 12 September 2021 at 11:30 UTC.
Form
Piast Gliwice (all games): 3W 1D 2L across 6 Ekstraklasa fixtures this term — 1.67 PPG. Last five: W L W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.67 goals per game, with 1.33 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 6 outings provides some defensive foundation. Piast Gliwice have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Piast Gliwice at Stadion Miejski this season: 1W 1D 1L from 3 home games — 1.33 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.33 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 100% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Zaglebie Lubin have collected 1.20 PPG across 5 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 2W 0D 3L. Last five: L W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 5 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Zaglebie Lubin have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.67 PPG for Piast Gliwice against 1.20 for Zaglebie Lubin. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading & In-Play
Piast Gliwice — key trading statistics (5 games): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Zaglebie Lubin — key trading statistics (5 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games; Over 3.5 in 60%; they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Piast Gliwice 40% versus Zaglebie Lubin 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Piast Gliwice 20% | Zaglebie Lubin 80%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Piast Gliwice 2.22 xG and Zaglebie Lubin 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Piast Gliwice attack 1.262 / defence 1.456 | Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.651 / defence 1.625. League average goals — home 1.083 / away 1.103. Piast Gliwice carry an above-average attack strength of 1.262 — their λ of 2.22 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Zaglebie Lubin bring a strong defensive rating of 1.625 — this is suppressing Piast Gliwice's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 6 Piast Gliwice games / 5 Zaglebie Lubin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Piast Gliwice 62% | Draw 22% | Zaglebie Lubin 15%. Fair-value odds: Piast Gliwice 1.61 | Draw 4.55 | Zaglebie Lubin 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Piast Gliwice (62%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.27. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.27 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Piast Gliwice at 62% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.27 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 63% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 4.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Piast Gliwice 100% | Zaglebie Lubin 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Piast Gliwice vs Zaglebie Lubin | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Stadion Miejski • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Sep 2021, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Piast Gliwice 62% | Draw 22% | Zaglebie Lubin 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 59% | xG Piast Gliwice 2.22 / Zaglebie Lubin 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Piast Gliwice attack 1.262 / def 1.456 | Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.651 / def 1.625 | league avg home 1.083 / away 1.103 • Poisson stance: Piast Gliwice (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.22
Piast Gliwice xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Zaglebie Lubin xG
59%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Piast Gliwice vs Zaglebie Lubin kick off?
Piast Gliwice vs Zaglebie Lubin kicked off at 11:30 on Sunday 12 September 2021 at Stadion Miejski.
What was the final score in Piast Gliwice vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Piast Gliwice 0 - 1 Zaglebie Lubin.
Where is Piast Gliwice vs Zaglebie Lubin being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski.
What competition is Piast Gliwice vs Zaglebie Lubin part of?
Piast Gliwice vs Zaglebie Lubin is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Piast Gliwice vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Our statistical model gives Piast Gliwice a 62% chance of winning, Zaglebie Lubin a 15% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Piast Gliwice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Piast Gliwice vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Piast Gliwice and Zaglebie Lubin will score (BTTS).
Will Piast Gliwice vs Zaglebie Lubin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Piast Gliwice and Zaglebie Lubin?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Piast Gliwice and Zaglebie Lubin in?
Piast Gliwice (all comps): 3W-1D-2L in 6 | 1.67 PPG | GF 1.67 / GA 1.33 | L5 W-L-W-D-W. Zaglebie Lubin (all comps): 2W-0D-3L in 5 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Piast Gliwice's attacking strength (1.26x league average) is weighed against Zaglebie Lubin's defensive record (1.62x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.22. Flip it around — Zaglebie Lubin's attack (0.65x) against Piast Gliwice's defence (1.46x) — and the away total comes out at 1.05.
These ratings are built from 6/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (9.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Piast Gliwice Win
62%
1.60
22%
4.47
15%
6.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
9.4%
Home win
1 – 1
8.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.22
Piast Gliwice xG
Total xG
3.27
1.05
Zaglebie Lubin xG
1.60
62%
Home win
4.47
22%
Draw
6.59
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.68
41%
BTTS No
2.46
Clean Sheet
35%
2.85
11%
9.23
Win to Nil
22%
4.56
2%
60.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 8.5 | 8.9 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.8 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.0 | 7.3 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.9 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Piast Gliwice vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.0%.
How many goals are Piast Gliwice and Zaglebie Lubin expected to score?
The model projects 2.22 expected goals for Piast Gliwice and 1.05 for Zaglebie Lubin, a combined total of 3.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Piast Gliwice vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Piast Gliwice come into this having played 5 games, going 3W 1D 1L for 2.00 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-D-W. It's still early in the season for Piast Gliwice, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Zaglebie Lubin sit at 1.20 PPG from 5 outings (2W 0D 3L), a run that reads L-W-W-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Zaglebie Lubin, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Piast Gliwice carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.80 PPG clear of Zaglebie Lubin — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Piast Gliwice are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Zaglebie Lubin are on 1.20 scored and 2.20 conceded.
Defensively: Piast Gliwice have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 5 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Piast Gliwice
Early Season
Zaglebie Lubin
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Piast Gliwice and Zaglebie Lubin in coming into this match?
Piast Gliwice have gone 3W 1D 1L in their last 5 games (2.00 PPG), while Zaglebie Lubin have gone 2W 0D 3L in their last 5 (1.20 PPG).
Have Piast Gliwice or Zaglebie Lubin been keeping clean sheets recently?
Piast Gliwice have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Zaglebie Lubin in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since March 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. The two were last together as recently as 27 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Zaglebie Lubin have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Piast Gliwice have gone 2W 0D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Zaglebie Lubin — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Piast Gliwice
3
Draws
3
Zaglebie Lubin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Piast Gliwice and Zaglebie Lubin?
From 10 meetings on record, Piast Gliwice have won 4, Zaglebie Lubin have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Piast Gliwice and Zaglebie Lubin last play each other?
They last met on 27 July 2026, when Zaglebie Lubin 2-0 Piast Gliwice.
Who has won more matches between Piast Gliwice and Zaglebie Lubin?
Piast Gliwice have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Piast Gliwice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Zaglebie Lubin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Piast Gliwice 40%, Zaglebie Lubin 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 20% (Piast Gliwice) and 80% (Zaglebie Lubin).
On the defensive side: Piast Gliwice keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Zaglebie Lubin in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Piast Gliwice home games / Zaglebie Lubin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Piast Gliwice play Zaglebie Lubin?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Piast Gliwice's recent matches and 40% of Zaglebie Lubin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Piast Gliwice vs Zaglebie Lubin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 20% of Piast Gliwice's recent games and 80% of Zaglebie Lubin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Piast Gliwice and Zaglebie Lubin tend to score early?
Piast Gliwice have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Zaglebie Lubin in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Zaglebie Lubin defy the odds to beat Piast Gliwice 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Zaglebie Lubin beat Piast Gliwice 0-1 at Stadion Miejski, Regular Season - 7, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Piast Gliwice 2.22 xG and Zaglebie Lubin 1.05 xG, a combined 3.27. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Piast Gliwice fell 2.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Piast Gliwice attack 1.26 / defence 1.46 against Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.65 / defence 1.62, drawn from 6/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Piast Gliwice 62% | Draw 22% | Zaglebie Lubin 15%, with Piast Gliwice to win its most likely call at 62%. Instead the game produced a Zaglebie Lubin win, an outcome the model had rated at just 15% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 85% and missed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Piast Gliwice 20%, Zaglebie Lubin 80%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Piast Gliwice's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Zaglebie Lubin's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Piast Gliwice arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.20. Form was overturned, with Zaglebie Lubin winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Piast Gliwice managed 0 against a 1.60 scoring average — below par going forward. Zaglebie Lubin conceded 0 against a 2.20 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.