Piast Gliwice 1-0 Wisla Krakow – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Piast Gliwice at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Piast Gliwice vs Wisla Krakow fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ekstraklasa clash, Regular Season - 10 as Piast Gliwice welcome Wisla Krakow to Stadion Miejski. Kick-off is set for Friday 1 October 2021 at 19:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Piast Gliwice have gone 3W 1D 5L from 9 outings — a 1.11 PPG return. Last five: D W L L L. They are averaging 1.33 goals per game and conceding 1.56 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 9 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Piast Gliwice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Piast Gliwice at Stadion Miejski this season: 1W 1D 3L from 5 home games — 0.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Wisla Krakow stand at 3W 2D 4L from 9 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.22 PPG. Last five: W W D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.44 per game is modest, conceding 1.67 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 9 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Wisla Krakow, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Wisla Krakow's away record: 1W 1D 2L from 4 road trips in Ekstraklasa this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Piast Gliwice at 1.11 PPG versus Wisla Krakow's 1.22. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Both teams score in over 75% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
In-Play Data
Piast Gliwice trading profile (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Wisla Krakow trading profile (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Piast Gliwice 44% versus Wisla Krakow 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Piast Gliwice 33% | Wisla Krakow 78%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Piast Gliwice 1.96 xG and Wisla Krakow 1.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Piast Gliwice attack 1.062 / defence 1.605 | Wisla Krakow attack 0.891 / defence 1.628. League average goals — home 1.131 / away 1.202. Wisla Krakow bring a strong defensive rating of 1.628 — this is suppressing Piast Gliwice's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 9 Piast Gliwice games / 9 Wisla Krakow games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Piast Gliwice 44% | Draw 22% | Wisla Krakow 34%. Fair-value odds: Piast Gliwice 2.27 | Draw 4.55 | Wisla Krakow 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 22% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS probability 70% | Total xG 3.67. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.67 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 70% reflects that both xG figures (1.96 / 1.72) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Piast Gliwice as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Piast Gliwice offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.67 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 71% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 4.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 70% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Piast Gliwice 80% | Wisla Krakow 75% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Piast Gliwice vs Wisla Krakow | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Stadion Miejski • Kick-off: Friday 1 Oct 2021, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Piast Gliwice 44% | Draw 22% | Wisla Krakow 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% | BTTS 70% | xG Piast Gliwice 1.96 / Wisla Krakow 1.72 • Poisson strength factors: Piast Gliwice attack 1.062 / def 1.605 | Wisla Krakow attack 0.891 / def 1.628 | league avg home 1.131 / away 1.202 • Poisson stance: Piast Gliwice (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.96
Piast Gliwice xG
Expected Goals
1.72
Wisla Krakow xG
70%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Piast Gliwice vs Wisla Krakow kick off?
Piast Gliwice vs Wisla Krakow kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 1 October 2021 at Stadion Miejski.
What was the final score in Piast Gliwice vs Wisla Krakow?
Piast Gliwice 1 - 0 Wisla Krakow.
Where is Piast Gliwice vs Wisla Krakow being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski.
What competition is Piast Gliwice vs Wisla Krakow part of?
Piast Gliwice vs Wisla Krakow is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Piast Gliwice vs Wisla Krakow?
Our statistical model gives Piast Gliwice a 44% chance of winning, Wisla Krakow a 34% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Piast Gliwice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Piast Gliwice vs Wisla Krakow?
Our model estimates a 70% probability that both Piast Gliwice and Wisla Krakow will score (BTTS).
Will Piast Gliwice vs Wisla Krakow have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%.
What is the head-to-head record between Piast Gliwice and Wisla Krakow?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Piast Gliwice and Wisla Krakow in?
Piast Gliwice (all comps): 3W-1D-5L in 9 | 1.11 PPG | GF 1.33 / GA 1.56 | L5 D-W-L-L-L. Wisla Krakow (all comps): 3W-2D-4L in 9 | 1.22 PPG | GF 1.44 / GA 1.67 | L5 W-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Piast Gliwice's attack rating (1.06) and Wisla Krakow's defence rating (1.63), the model arrives at 1.96 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Wisla Krakow's attack versus Piast Gliwice's defence, projects 1.72 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 9/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.3%), 1-2 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Piast Gliwice Win
44%
2.28
22%
4.64
34%
2.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
8.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.3%
Home win
1 – 2
7.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.96
Piast Gliwice xG
Total xG
3.67
1.72
Wisla Krakow xG
2.28
44%
Home win
4.64
22%
Draw
2.90
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
71%
Over 2.5
1.41
29%
Under 2.5
3.45
50%
Over 3.5
2.00
50%
Under 3.5
2.00
31%
Over 4.5
3.23
69%
Under 4.5
1.45
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
70%
BTTS Yes
1.42
30%
BTTS No
3.39
Clean Sheet
18%
5.58
14%
7.06
Win to Nil
8%
12.69
5%
20.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.5 | 4.4 | 3.7 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 5.0 | 8.5 | 7.3 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 8.3 | 7.2 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 5.4 | 4.7 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.7 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Piast Gliwice vs Wisla Krakow?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.6%.
How many goals are Piast Gliwice and Wisla Krakow expected to score?
The model projects 1.96 expected goals for Piast Gliwice and 1.72 for Wisla Krakow, a combined total of 3.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Piast Gliwice vs Wisla Krakow?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Piast Gliwice's recent record stands at 3W 1D 5L from 9 games, a 1.11 PPG return, with D-W-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Piast Gliwice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Wisla Krakow, meanwhile, have gone 3W 2D 4L across 9 games — 1.22 PPG, with W-W-D-L-L in their last five. The sample for Wisla Krakow is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Piast Gliwice on 1.11 PPG, Wisla Krakow on 1.22. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Piast Gliwice have managed 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Wisla Krakow's away record stands at 1W 1D 2L across 4 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Piast Gliwice are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; Wisla Krakow are on 1.44 scored and 1.67 conceded.
Last 9 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Piast Gliwice
Blended
Wisla Krakow
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Piast Gliwice and Wisla Krakow in coming into this match?
Piast Gliwice have gone 3W 1D 5L in their last 9 games (1.11 PPG), while Wisla Krakow have gone 3W 2D 4L in their last 9 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Piast Gliwice at home or Wisla Krakow away?
Piast Gliwice's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Piast Gliwice at home: 1.00 PPG; Wisla Krakow away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Piast Gliwice and Wisla Krakow runs to 3 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. The two were last together as recently as 1 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Piast Gliwice's record when hosting Wisla Krakow specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 3 Meetings
2
Piast Gliwice
1
Draws
0
Wisla Krakow
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Piast Gliwice and Wisla Krakow?
From 3 meetings on record, Piast Gliwice have won 2, Wisla Krakow have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Piast Gliwice and Wisla Krakow last play each other?
They last met on 1 August 2026, when Piast Gliwice 4-3 Wisla Krakow.
Who has won more matches between Piast Gliwice and Wisla Krakow?
Piast Gliwice have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Piast Gliwice see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Wisla Krakow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Piast Gliwice at 75%, Wisla Krakow at 75%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Piast Gliwice and 100% for Wisla Krakow. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 75% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Piast Gliwice home games / Wisla Krakow away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Piast Gliwice play Wisla Krakow?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Piast Gliwice's games and 75% of Wisla Krakow's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Piast Gliwice vs Wisla Krakow usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Piast Gliwice's matches and 100% of Wisla Krakow's.
Do Piast Gliwice and Wisla Krakow tend to score early?
Piast Gliwice have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Wisla Krakow in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Piast Gliwice edge out Wisla Krakow 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Piast Gliwice beat Wisla Krakow 1-0 at Stadion Miejski, Regular Season - 10, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Piast Gliwice 1.96 xG and Wisla Krakow 1.72 xG, a combined 3.67. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Piast Gliwice fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Wisla Krakow landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Piast Gliwice attack 1.06 / defence 1.60 against Wisla Krakow attack 0.89 / defence 1.63, drawn from 9/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Piast Gliwice 44% | Draw 22% | Wisla Krakow 34%, with Piast Gliwice to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 88% and missed. Over 3.5 was 50% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Piast Gliwice 33%, Wisla Krakow 78%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Piast Gliwice's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not.
Wisla Krakow's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Piast Gliwice 1.11 PPG, Wisla Krakow 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Piast Gliwice win broke the near-deadlock. Piast Gliwice (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.25 average — tighter than their form line. Wisla Krakow (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.