Piast Gliwice 1-1 Slask Wroclaw – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Piast Gliwice at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Piast Gliwice vs Slask Wroclaw fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion Miejski plays host to Piast Gliwice versus Slask Wroclaw in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off: Friday 16 September 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Piast Gliwice have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W W L W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Piast Gliwice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Piast Gliwice's home record at Stadion Miejski: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Ekstraklasa appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Slask Wroclaw's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: W D L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Slask Wroclaw, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Slask Wroclaw have posted 2W 5D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.40 vs 1.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Piast Gliwice 1W, Slask Wroclaw 0W, 1D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Feb 2022, ended 3–1 with Piast Gliwice winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Piast Gliwice goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (42 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Slask Wroclaw goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (42 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Piast Gliwice 43% versus Slask Wroclaw 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Piast Gliwice 36% | Slask Wroclaw 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Piast Gliwice 1.48 xG and Slask Wroclaw 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Piast Gliwice attack 1.064 / defence 0.869 | Slask Wroclaw attack 0.812 / defence 1.007. League average goals — home 1.384 / away 1.153. Data: 42 Piast Gliwice games / 43 Slask Wroclaw games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Piast Gliwice 53% | Draw 26% | Slask Wroclaw 21%. Fair-value odds: Piast Gliwice 1.89 | Draw 3.85 | Slask Wroclaw 4.76. Piast Gliwice hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Piast Gliwice are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Piast Gliwice if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.30 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Piast Gliwice 40% | Slask Wroclaw 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Piast Gliwice vs Slask Wroclaw | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Stadion Miejski • Kick-off: Friday 16 Sep 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Piast Gliwice 53% | Draw 26% | Slask Wroclaw 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 43% | xG Piast Gliwice 1.48 / Slask Wroclaw 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Piast Gliwice attack 1.064 / def 0.869 | Slask Wroclaw attack 0.812 / def 1.007 | league avg home 1.384 / away 1.153 • Poisson stance: Piast Gliwice (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Piast Gliwice xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Slask Wroclaw xG
43%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Piast Gliwice vs Slask Wroclaw kick off?
Piast Gliwice vs Slask Wroclaw kicked off at 17:00 on Friday 16 September 2022 at Stadion Miejski.
What was the final score in Piast Gliwice vs Slask Wroclaw?
Piast Gliwice 1 - 1 Slask Wroclaw.
Where is Piast Gliwice vs Slask Wroclaw being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski.
What competition is Piast Gliwice vs Slask Wroclaw part of?
Piast Gliwice vs Slask Wroclaw is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Piast Gliwice vs Slask Wroclaw?
Our statistical model gives Piast Gliwice a 53% chance of winning, Slask Wroclaw a 21% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Piast Gliwice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Piast Gliwice vs Slask Wroclaw?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Piast Gliwice and Slask Wroclaw will score (BTTS).
Will Piast Gliwice vs Slask Wroclaw have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Piast Gliwice and Slask Wroclaw?
Record (2 meetings): Piast Gliwice 1W | Draws 1 | Slask Wroclaw 0W.
What form are Piast Gliwice and Slask Wroclaw in?
Piast Gliwice (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-W-D. Slask Wroclaw (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Piast Gliwice's attack rating (1.06) and Slask Wroclaw's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 1.48 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Slask Wroclaw's attack (0.81x) against Piast Gliwice's defence (0.87x) — and the away total comes out at 0.81.
These ratings are built from 42/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.3%), 0-0 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Piast Gliwice Win
53%
1.89
26%
3.79
21%
4.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
2 – 0
11.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Piast Gliwice xG
Total xG
2.30
0.81
Slask Wroclaw xG
1.89
53%
Home win
3.79
26%
Draw
4.86
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.32
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
44%
2.25
23%
4.41
Win to Nil
24%
4.25
5%
21.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 8.2 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.9 | 12.1 | 4.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.1 | 9.0 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.5 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Piast Gliwice vs Slask Wroclaw?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Piast Gliwice and Slask Wroclaw expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Piast Gliwice and 0.81 for Slask Wroclaw, a combined total of 2.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Piast Gliwice vs Slask Wroclaw?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Piast Gliwice's recent record stands at 18W 10D 14L from 42 games, a 1.52 PPG return, with W-W-L-W-D in the last five. The sample for Piast Gliwice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Slask Wroclaw, meanwhile, have gone 10W 16D 16L across 42 games — 1.10 PPG, with W-D-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Slask Wroclaw is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Piast Gliwice by 0.42 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Slask Wroclaw heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Piast Gliwice have managed 9W 4D 7L from 20 games — 1.55 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Slask Wroclaw's away record stands at 4W 7D 9L across 20 trips, a 0.95 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Piast Gliwice come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Piast Gliwice are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Slask Wroclaw are on 1.14 scored and 1.48 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Slask Wroclaw in 64%.
Last 42 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Piast Gliwice
Blended
Slask Wroclaw
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Piast Gliwice and Slask Wroclaw in coming into this match?
Piast Gliwice have gone 18W 10D 14L in their last 42 games (1.52 PPG), while Slask Wroclaw have gone 10W 16D 16L in their last 42 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Piast Gliwice at home or Slask Wroclaw away?
Piast Gliwice's home record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Piast Gliwice at home: 1.55 PPG; Slask Wroclaw away: 0.95 PPG.
Have Piast Gliwice or Slask Wroclaw been keeping clean sheets recently?
Piast Gliwice have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Slask Wroclaw in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Piast Gliwice go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Piast Gliwice have gone 1W 3D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Slask Wroclaw — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Piast Gliwice
3
Draws
1
Slask Wroclaw
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Piast Gliwice and Slask Wroclaw?
From 8 meetings on record, Piast Gliwice have won 4, Slask Wroclaw have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Piast Gliwice and Slask Wroclaw last play each other?
They last met on 3 February 2025, when Slask Wroclaw 1-3 Piast Gliwice.
Who has won more matches between Piast Gliwice and Slask Wroclaw?
Piast Gliwice have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Piast Gliwice see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Slask Wroclaw are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Piast Gliwice 55%, Slask Wroclaw 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Piast Gliwice) and 45% (Slask Wroclaw).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Piast Gliwice home games / Slask Wroclaw away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Piast Gliwice play Slask Wroclaw?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 55% of Piast Gliwice's games and 65% of Slask Wroclaw's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Piast Gliwice vs Slask Wroclaw usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Piast Gliwice's recent games and 45% of Slask Wroclaw's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Piast Gliwice and Slask Wroclaw tend to score early?
Piast Gliwice have had a goal before half-time in 55% of their recent matches, Slask Wroclaw in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Piast Gliwice and Slask Wroclaw share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Piast Gliwice and Slask Wroclaw finished level at 1-1 at Stadion Miejski, Regular Season - 10, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Piast Gliwice 1.48 xG and Slask Wroclaw 0.81 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Piast Gliwice attack 1.06 / defence 0.87 against Slask Wroclaw attack 0.81 / defence 1.01, drawn from 42/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Piast Gliwice 53% | Draw 26% | Slask Wroclaw 21%, with Piast Gliwice to win its most likely call at 53%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Piast Gliwice 36%, Slask Wroclaw 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Piast Gliwice's trading profile (42 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Slask Wroclaw's trading profile (42 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Piast Gliwice arrived the stronger side — 1.52 PPG against 1.10. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.