Piast Gliwice 2-1 Raków Częstochowa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Piast Gliwice at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Piast Gliwice vs Raków Częstochowa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Piast Gliwice and Raków Częstochowa meet at Stadion Miejski in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 4. This fixture gets under way on Friday 11 August 2023 at 19:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Piast Gliwice have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: D L L D D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Piast Gliwice have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Piast Gliwice at Stadion Miejski this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game.
Raków Częstochowa (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this term — 1.80 points per game. Last five: L W D W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Raków Częstochowa have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Raków Częstochowa's away record: 5W 3D 2L from 10 road trips in Ekstraklasa this season (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.60 vs 1.80 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Across the last 4 meetings, Raków Częstochowa have the stronger historical record — 4 wins to Piast Gliwice's 0, with 0 draws in the mix.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Feb 2023, ended 0–1 with Raków Częstochowa winning.
It is worth noting that Raków Częstochowa have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 4 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading
Piast Gliwice half-time and goal-timing data (36 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Raków Częstochowa half-time and goal-timing data (36 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Piast Gliwice 42% versus Raków Częstochowa 39%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Piast Gliwice 28% | Raków Częstochowa 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Piast Gliwice 1.09 xG and Raków Częstochowa 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Piast Gliwice attack 0.876 / defence 1.041 | Raków Częstochowa attack 1.057 / defence 0.866. League average goals — home 1.437 / away 0.949. Data: 37 Piast Gliwice games / 36 Raków Częstochowa games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Piast Gliwice 36% | Draw 31% | Raków Częstochowa 33%. Fair-value odds: Piast Gliwice 2.78 | Draw 3.23 | Raków Częstochowa 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.13. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.13 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Piast Gliwice are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Piast Gliwice if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.13 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 36% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Piast Gliwice 50% | Raków Częstochowa 50%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (36 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Piast Gliwice vs Raków Częstochowa | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Stadion Miejski • Kick-off: Friday 11 Aug 2023, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Piast Gliwice 36% | Draw 31% | Raków Częstochowa 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 44% | xG Piast Gliwice 1.09 / Raków Częstochowa 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Piast Gliwice attack 0.876 / def 1.041 | Raków Częstochowa attack 1.057 / def 0.866 | league avg home 1.437 / away 0.949 • Poisson stance: Piast Gliwice (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Piast Gliwice xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Raków Częstochowa xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Piast Gliwice vs Raków Częstochowa kick off?
Piast Gliwice vs Raków Częstochowa kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 11 August 2023 at Stadion Miejski.
What was the final score in Piast Gliwice vs Raków Częstochowa?
Piast Gliwice 2 - 1 Raków Częstochowa.
Where is Piast Gliwice vs Raków Częstochowa being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski.
What competition is Piast Gliwice vs Raków Częstochowa part of?
Piast Gliwice vs Raków Częstochowa is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Piast Gliwice vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our statistical model gives Piast Gliwice a 36% chance of winning, Raków Częstochowa a 33% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Piast Gliwice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Piast Gliwice vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Piast Gliwice and Raków Częstochowa will score (BTTS).
Will Piast Gliwice vs Raków Częstochowa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Piast Gliwice and Raków Częstochowa?
Record (4 meetings): Piast Gliwice 0W | Draws 0 | Raków Częstochowa 4W.
What form are Piast Gliwice and Raków Częstochowa in?
Piast Gliwice (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-L-L-D-D. Raków Częstochowa (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.70 | L5 L-W-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Piast Gliwice's attacking strength (0.88x league average) is weighed against Raków Częstochowa's defensive record (0.87x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.09. Flip it around — Raków Częstochowa's attack (1.06x) against Piast Gliwice's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 1.04.
The sample (37/36 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.6%), 1-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Piast Gliwice Win
36%
2.80
31%
3.24
33%
3.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
0 – 1
12.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Piast Gliwice xG
Total xG
2.13
1.04
Raków Częstochowa xG
2.80
36%
Home win
3.24
31%
Draw
3.00
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.29
56%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
35%
2.84
34%
2.98
Win to Nil
13%
7.94
11%
8.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.8 | 12.3 | 6.4 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.9 | 13.5 | 7.0 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 7.3 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Piast Gliwice vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Piast Gliwice and Raków Częstochowa expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Piast Gliwice and 1.04 for Raków Częstochowa, a combined total of 2.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Piast Gliwice vs Raków Częstochowa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 36 outings, Piast Gliwice have picked up 1.44 PPG on a 14W 10D 12L record — D-L-L-D-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Piast Gliwice, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Raków Częstochowa's form line: 24W 7D 5L from 36 games, 2.19 PPG, last five L-W-D-W-D. It's still early in the season for Raków Częstochowa, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Raków Częstochowa are the form team by 0.75 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Piast Gliwice.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Piast Gliwice have posted 1.29 PPG from 17 outings (6W 4D 7L).
On the road, Raków Częstochowa have gone 9W 4D 4L from 17 away games — 1.82 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Raków Częstochowa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Piast Gliwice are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 0.89 conceded per game recently; Raków Częstochowa are on 1.89 scored and 0.72 conceded. Raków Częstochowa's attacking output running into Piast Gliwice's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
Defensively: Raków Częstochowa in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 36 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Piast Gliwice
Early Season
Raków Częstochowa
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Piast Gliwice and Raków Częstochowa in coming into this match?
Piast Gliwice have gone 14W 10D 12L in their last 36 games (1.44 PPG), while Raków Częstochowa have gone 24W 7D 5L in their last 36 (2.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Piast Gliwice at home or Raków Częstochowa away?
Raków Częstochowa's away record (1.82 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Piast Gliwice at home: 1.29 PPG; Raków Częstochowa away: 1.82 PPG.
Have Piast Gliwice or Raków Częstochowa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Piast Gliwice have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Raków Częstochowa in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. The two were last together as recently as 17 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Raków Częstochowa won 0-3 on 8 Mar 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Piast Gliwice have gone 1W 0D 4L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Raków Częstochowa — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Piast Gliwice
0
Draws
7
Raków Częstochowa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Piast Gliwice and Raków Częstochowa?
From 10 meetings on record, Piast Gliwice have won 3, Raków Częstochowa have won 7, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Piast Gliwice and Raków Częstochowa last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Piast Gliwice 1-3 Raków Częstochowa.
Who has won more matches between Piast Gliwice and Raków Częstochowa?
Raków Częstochowa have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Piast Gliwice see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches.
Raków Częstochowa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Piast Gliwice 53%, Raków Częstochowa 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Piast Gliwice) and 47% (Raków Częstochowa).
On the defensive side: Raków Częstochowa in 41%; Piast Gliwice have failed to score in 29% of games; Raków Częstochowa in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Piast Gliwice home games / Raków Częstochowa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Piast Gliwice play Raków Częstochowa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Piast Gliwice's recent matches and 41% of Raków Częstochowa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Piast Gliwice vs Raków Częstochowa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Piast Gliwice's recent games and 47% of Raków Częstochowa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Piast Gliwice and Raków Częstochowa tend to score early?
Piast Gliwice have had a goal before half-time in 59% of their recent matches, Raków Częstochowa in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Piast Gliwice edge out Raków Częstochowa 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Piast Gliwice beat Raków Częstochowa 2-1 at Stadion Miejski, Regular Season - 4, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Piast Gliwice 1.09 xG and Raków Częstochowa 1.04 xG, a combined 2.13. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Piast Gliwice beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Piast Gliwice attack 0.88 / defence 1.04 against Raków Częstochowa attack 1.06 / defence 0.87, drawn from 37/36 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Piast Gliwice 36% | Draw 31% | Raków Częstochowa 33%, with Piast Gliwice to win its most likely call at 36%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Piast Gliwice 28%, Raków Częstochowa 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Piast Gliwice's trading profile (36 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Raków Częstochowa's trading profile (36 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Raków Częstochowa arrived the stronger side — 2.19 PPG against 1.44. Form was overturned, with Piast Gliwice winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Piast Gliwice (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.06 average — above their attacking norm. Raków Częstochowa (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.82 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.