Piast Gliwice 0-2 Pogon Szczecin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Pogon Szczecin at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Piast Gliwice vs Pogon Szczecin encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ekstraklasa encounter, Regular Season - 20 sees Pogon Szczecin travel to Stadion Miejski to take on Piast Gliwice. The game is scheduled for Saturday 5 February 2022, 16:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Piast Gliwice have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: L W L D D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Piast Gliwice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Piast Gliwice's home record at Stadion Miejski: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Ekstraklasa appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Pogon Szczecin — All Games: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W W D D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Pogon Szczecin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pogon Szczecin away from home this season: 3W 5D 2L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Pogon Szczecin are 0.80 PPG ahead (2.10 vs 1.30), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Piast Gliwice have won 0, Pogon Szczecin 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 8 Aug 2021, ended 0–1 with Pogon Szczecin winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Piast Gliwice trading profile (19 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Pogon Szczecin trading profile (19 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; they lead at the break 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Piast Gliwice 53% versus Pogon Szczecin 63%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Piast Gliwice 37% | Pogon Szczecin 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Piast Gliwice 1.14 xG and Pogon Szczecin 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Piast Gliwice attack 0.974 / defence 1.245 | Pogon Szczecin attack 0.901 / defence 0.961. League average goals — home 1.214 / away 1.229. Data: 19 Piast Gliwice games / 19 Pogon Szczecin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Piast Gliwice 31% | Draw 27% | Pogon Szczecin 42%. Fair-value odds: Piast Gliwice 3.23 | Draw 3.70 | Pogon Szczecin 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Pogon Szczecin are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Pogon Szczecin offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.51 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Piast Gliwice 70% | Pogon Szczecin 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Piast Gliwice vs Pogon Szczecin | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Stadion Miejski • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Feb 2022, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Piast Gliwice 31% | Draw 27% | Pogon Szczecin 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG Piast Gliwice 1.14 / Pogon Szczecin 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Piast Gliwice attack 0.974 / def 1.245 | Pogon Szczecin attack 0.901 / def 0.961 | league avg home 1.214 / away 1.229 • Poisson stance: Pogon Szczecin (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Piast Gliwice xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Pogon Szczecin xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Piast Gliwice vs Pogon Szczecin kick off?
Piast Gliwice vs Pogon Szczecin kicked off at 16:30 on Saturday 5 February 2022 at Stadion Miejski.
What was the final score in Piast Gliwice vs Pogon Szczecin?
Piast Gliwice 0 - 2 Pogon Szczecin.
Where is Piast Gliwice vs Pogon Szczecin being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski.
What competition is Piast Gliwice vs Pogon Szczecin part of?
Piast Gliwice vs Pogon Szczecin is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Piast Gliwice vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our statistical model gives Piast Gliwice a 31% chance of winning, Pogon Szczecin a 42% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Pogon Szczecin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Piast Gliwice vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Piast Gliwice and Pogon Szczecin will score (BTTS).
Will Piast Gliwice vs Pogon Szczecin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Piast Gliwice and Pogon Szczecin?
Record (1 meetings): Piast Gliwice 0W | Draws 0 | Pogon Szczecin 1W.
What form are Piast Gliwice and Pogon Szczecin in?
Piast Gliwice (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-L-D-D. Pogon Szczecin (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Piast Gliwice's attacking strength (0.97x league average) is weighed against Pogon Szczecin's defensive record (0.96x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.14. The same calculation in reverse, Pogon Szczecin's attack versus Piast Gliwice's defence, projects 1.38 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 19/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.7%), 0-1 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pogon Szczecin Win
31%
3.24
27%
3.75
42%
2.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.2%
Away win
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Piast Gliwice xG
Total xG
2.51
1.38
Pogon Szczecin xG
3.24
31%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
2.36
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
25%
3.97
32%
3.11
Win to Nil
8%
12.85
14%
7.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 11.2 | 7.7 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 12.7 | 8.7 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 7.2 | 5.0 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.7 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Piast Gliwice vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Piast Gliwice and Pogon Szczecin expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Piast Gliwice and 1.38 for Pogon Szczecin, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Piast Gliwice vs Pogon Szczecin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Piast Gliwice's recent record stands at 6W 5D 8L from 19 games, a 1.21 PPG return, with L-W-L-D-D in the last five. The sample for Piast Gliwice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Pogon Szczecin, meanwhile, have gone 10W 7D 2L across 19 games — 1.95 PPG, with W-W-W-D-D in their last five. The sample for Pogon Szczecin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Pogon Szczecin by 0.74 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Piast Gliwice heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Piast Gliwice have managed 4W 2D 4L from 10 games — 1.40 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Pogon Szczecin's away record stands at 3W 5D 2L across 10 trips, a 1.40 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.95 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Pogon Szczecin's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Piast Gliwice are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Pogon Szczecin are on 1.84 scored and 0.84 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Pogon Szczecin in 63%.
Last 19 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Piast Gliwice
Blended
Pogon Szczecin
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Piast Gliwice and Pogon Szczecin in coming into this match?
Piast Gliwice have gone 6W 5D 8L in their last 19 games (1.21 PPG), while Pogon Szczecin have gone 10W 7D 2L in their last 19 (1.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Piast Gliwice at home or Pogon Szczecin away?
Piast Gliwice's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Piast Gliwice at home: 1.40 PPG; Pogon Szczecin away: 1.40 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 13 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Pogon Szczecin have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Piast Gliwice's record when hosting Pogon Szczecin specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Piast Gliwice
3
Draws
5
Pogon Szczecin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Piast Gliwice and Pogon Szczecin?
From 10 meetings on record, Piast Gliwice have won 2, Pogon Szczecin have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Piast Gliwice and Pogon Szczecin last play each other?
They last met on 13 April 2026, when Piast Gliwice 0-2 Pogon Szczecin.
Who has won more matches between Piast Gliwice and Pogon Szczecin?
Pogon Szczecin have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Piast Gliwice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Pogon Szczecin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Piast Gliwice 70%, Pogon Szczecin 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 50% for Piast Gliwice and 20% for Pogon Szczecin.
On the defensive side: Pogon Szczecin in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Piast Gliwice home games / Pogon Szczecin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Piast Gliwice play Pogon Szczecin?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Piast Gliwice's games and 50% of Pogon Szczecin's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Piast Gliwice vs Pogon Szczecin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Piast Gliwice's recent games and 20% of Pogon Szczecin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Piast Gliwice and Pogon Szczecin tend to score early?
Piast Gliwice have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Pogon Szczecin in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Pogon Szczecin cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Piast Gliwice.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pogon Szczecin beat Piast Gliwice 0-2 at Stadion Miejski, Regular Season - 20, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Piast Gliwice 1.14 xG and Pogon Szczecin 1.38 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Piast Gliwice fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Piast Gliwice attack 0.97 / defence 1.25 against Pogon Szczecin attack 0.90 / defence 0.96, drawn from 19/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Piast Gliwice 31% | Draw 27% | Pogon Szczecin 42%, with Pogon Szczecin to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 37% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Piast Gliwice 37%, Pogon Szczecin 37%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Piast Gliwice's trading profile (19 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Pogon Szczecin's trading profile (19 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Pogon Szczecin arrived the stronger side — 1.95 PPG against 1.21. Form held, and they took the win. Piast Gliwice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.70 scoring average — below par going forward. Pogon Szczecin (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.90 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.