Piast Gliwice 2-1 Jagiellonia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Piast Gliwice at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Piast Gliwice vs Jagiellonia encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ekstraklasa encounter, Regular Season - 30 sees Jagiellonia travel to Stadion Miejski to take on Piast Gliwice. The game is scheduled for Saturday 23 April 2022, 16:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Piast Gliwice stand at 6W 3D 1L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W D W W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
In front of their own supporters this season, Piast Gliwice have posted 5W 2D 3L at Stadion Miejski — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Jagiellonia have recorded 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Jagiellonia's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Piast Gliwice carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.10 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.10 vs 1.00. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Piast Gliwice, 0 for Jagiellonia and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 6.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 30 Oct 2021, ended 3–3 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 6.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Piast Gliwice in-play tendencies (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Jagiellonia in-play tendencies (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Piast Gliwice 41% versus Jagiellonia 66%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Piast Gliwice 31% | Jagiellonia 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Piast Gliwice 1.25 xG and Jagiellonia 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Piast Gliwice attack 0.805 / defence 0.959 | Jagiellonia attack 0.846 / defence 1.534. League average goals — home 1.013 / away 1.177. Jagiellonia bring a strong defensive rating of 1.534 — this is suppressing Piast Gliwice's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 29 Piast Gliwice games / 29 Jagiellonia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Piast Gliwice 43% | Draw 29% | Jagiellonia 28%. Fair-value odds: Piast Gliwice 2.33 | Draw 3.45 | Jagiellonia 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.21. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.21 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Piast Gliwice at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Piast Gliwice offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.21 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 38% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates are neutral: Piast Gliwice 40% | Jagiellonia 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Piast Gliwice vs Jagiellonia | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Stadion Miejski • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Apr 2022, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Piast Gliwice 43% | Draw 29% | Jagiellonia 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 44% | xG Piast Gliwice 1.25 / Jagiellonia 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Piast Gliwice attack 0.805 / def 0.959 | Jagiellonia attack 0.846 / def 1.534 | league avg home 1.013 / away 1.177 • Poisson stance: Piast Gliwice (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Piast Gliwice xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Jagiellonia xG
44%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Piast Gliwice vs Jagiellonia kick off?
Piast Gliwice vs Jagiellonia kicked off at 16:30 on Saturday 23 April 2022 at Stadion Miejski.
What was the final score in Piast Gliwice vs Jagiellonia?
Piast Gliwice 2 - 1 Jagiellonia.
Where is Piast Gliwice vs Jagiellonia being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski.
What competition is Piast Gliwice vs Jagiellonia part of?
Piast Gliwice vs Jagiellonia is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Piast Gliwice vs Jagiellonia?
Our statistical model gives Piast Gliwice a 43% chance of winning, Jagiellonia a 28% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Piast Gliwice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Piast Gliwice vs Jagiellonia?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Piast Gliwice and Jagiellonia will score (BTTS).
Will Piast Gliwice vs Jagiellonia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Piast Gliwice and Jagiellonia?
Record (1 meetings): Piast Gliwice 0W | Draws 1 | Jagiellonia 0W.
What form are Piast Gliwice and Jagiellonia in?
Piast Gliwice (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-D-W-W. Jagiellonia (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Piast Gliwice's attacking strength (0.81x league average) is weighed against Jagiellonia's defensive record (1.53x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.25. The same calculation in reverse, Jagiellonia's attack versus Piast Gliwice's defence, projects 0.95 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 29/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.7%), 1-0 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Piast Gliwice Win
43%
2.32
29%
3.49
28%
3.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
11.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Piast Gliwice xG
Total xG
2.21
0.95
Jagiellonia xG
2.32
43%
Home win
3.49
29%
Draw
3.54
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.28
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
38%
2.60
29%
3.49
Win to Nil
17%
6.04
8%
12.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.0 | 10.5 | 5.0 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.8 | 13.2 | 6.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 8.2 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Piast Gliwice vs Jagiellonia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Piast Gliwice and Jagiellonia expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Piast Gliwice and 0.95 for Jagiellonia, a combined total of 2.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Piast Gliwice vs Jagiellonia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Piast Gliwice come into this having played 29 games, going 12W 8D 9L for 1.52 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-W-W.
On the other side, Jagiellonia sit at 1.17 PPG from 29 outings (8W 10D 11L), a run that reads L-L-W-D-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Piast Gliwice on 1.52 PPG, Jagiellonia on 1.17. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Piast Gliwice's home form reads 6W 3D 5L across 14 games on their own ground, a 1.50 PPG return.
Away from home, Jagiellonia have taken 0.93 points per game from 14 outings (3W 4D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Piast Gliwice come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Piast Gliwice are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; Jagiellonia are on 1.17 scored and 1.55 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jagiellonia in 66%.
Last 29 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Piast Gliwice
Current Season
Jagiellonia
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Piast Gliwice and Jagiellonia in coming into this match?
Piast Gliwice have gone 12W 8D 9L in their last 29 games (1.52 PPG), while Jagiellonia have gone 8W 10D 11L in their last 29 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Piast Gliwice at home or Jagiellonia away?
Piast Gliwice's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Piast Gliwice at home: 1.50 PPG; Jagiellonia away: 0.93 PPG.
Have Piast Gliwice or Jagiellonia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Piast Gliwice have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Jagiellonia in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Piast Gliwice's record when hosting Jagiellonia specifically: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Piast Gliwice
6
Draws
2
Jagiellonia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Piast Gliwice and Jagiellonia?
From 10 meetings on record, Piast Gliwice have won 2, Jagiellonia have won 2, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Piast Gliwice and Jagiellonia last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when Jagiellonia 1-2 Piast Gliwice.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Piast Gliwice see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Jagiellonia see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Piast Gliwice 50%, Jagiellonia 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Piast Gliwice) and 71% (Jagiellonia).
On the defensive side: Piast Gliwice have failed to score in 29% of games; Jagiellonia in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Piast Gliwice home games / Jagiellonia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Piast Gliwice play Jagiellonia?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Piast Gliwice's games and 64% of Jagiellonia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Piast Gliwice vs Jagiellonia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Piast Gliwice's recent games and 71% of Jagiellonia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as Piast Gliwice edge out Jagiellonia 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Piast Gliwice beat Jagiellonia 2-1 at Stadion Miejski, Regular Season - 30, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Piast Gliwice 1.25 xG and Jagiellonia 0.95 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Piast Gliwice attack 0.81 / defence 0.96 against Jagiellonia attack 0.85 / defence 1.53, drawn from 29/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Piast Gliwice 43% | Draw 29% | Jagiellonia 28%, with Piast Gliwice to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Piast Gliwice 31%, Jagiellonia 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Piast Gliwice's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Jagiellonia's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Piast Gliwice 1.52 PPG, Jagiellonia 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Piast Gliwice win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.