Piast Gliwice 2-4 Cracovia Krakow – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Piast Gliwice at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Piast Gliwice vs Cracovia Krakow fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ekstraklasa clash, Regular Season - 9 as Piast Gliwice welcome Cracovia Krakow to Stadion Miejski. Kick-off is set for Monday 27 September 2021 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Piast Gliwice — All Games: 3W 1D 4L from 8 Ekstraklasa outings this season, averaging 1.25 points per game. Last five: W D W L L. They are averaging 1.25 goals per game and conceding 1.25 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 8 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Piast Gliwice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Piast Gliwice's form when playing at home: 1W 1D 2L across 4 games at Stadion Miejski this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.75 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Cracovia Krakow have recorded 2W 3D 3L from 8 outings — 1.12 PPG. Last five: L W W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.12 per game is modest, conceding 1.62 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 75% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Cracovia Krakow, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Cracovia Krakow have posted 1W 2D 2L from 5 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.25 PPG (Piast Gliwice) versus 1.12 (Cracovia Krakow). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Piast Gliwice register both teams scoring in 75% of relevant matches, Cracovia Krakow in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Trading Patterns
Piast Gliwice in-play and half-time data (8 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Cracovia Krakow in-play and half-time data (8 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 38% of cases; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Piast Gliwice 38% versus Cracovia Krakow 75%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Piast Gliwice 25% | Cracovia Krakow 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Piast Gliwice 1.37 xG and Cracovia Krakow 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Piast Gliwice attack 1.003 / defence 1.355 | Cracovia Krakow attack 0.751 / defence 1.200. League average goals — home 1.141 / away 1.143. Data: 8 Piast Gliwice games / 8 Cracovia Krakow games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Piast Gliwice 42% | Draw 27% | Cracovia Krakow 32%. Fair-value odds: Piast Gliwice 2.38 | Draw 3.70 | Cracovia Krakow 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Piast Gliwice at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Piast Gliwice offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.54 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.1 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Piast Gliwice 75% | Cracovia Krakow 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Piast Gliwice vs Cracovia Krakow | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Stadion Miejski • Kick-off: Monday 27 Sep 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Piast Gliwice 42% | Draw 27% | Cracovia Krakow 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 51% | xG Piast Gliwice 1.37 / Cracovia Krakow 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Piast Gliwice attack 1.003 / def 1.355 | Cracovia Krakow attack 0.751 / def 1.200 | league avg home 1.141 / away 1.143 • Poisson stance: Piast Gliwice (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Piast Gliwice xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Cracovia Krakow xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Piast Gliwice vs Cracovia Krakow kick off?
Piast Gliwice vs Cracovia Krakow kicked off at 17:00 on Monday 27 September 2021 at Stadion Miejski.
What was the final score in Piast Gliwice vs Cracovia Krakow?
Piast Gliwice 2 - 4 Cracovia Krakow.
Where is Piast Gliwice vs Cracovia Krakow being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski.
What competition is Piast Gliwice vs Cracovia Krakow part of?
Piast Gliwice vs Cracovia Krakow is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Piast Gliwice vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our statistical model gives Piast Gliwice a 42% chance of winning, Cracovia Krakow a 32% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Piast Gliwice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Piast Gliwice vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Piast Gliwice and Cracovia Krakow will score (BTTS).
Will Piast Gliwice vs Cracovia Krakow have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Piast Gliwice and Cracovia Krakow?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Piast Gliwice and Cracovia Krakow in?
Piast Gliwice (all comps): 3W-1D-4L in 8 | 1.25 PPG | GF 1.25 / GA 1.25 | L5 W-D-W-L-L. Cracovia Krakow (all comps): 2W-3D-3L in 8 | 1.12 PPG | GF 1.12 / GA 1.62 | L5 L-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Piast Gliwice's attack rating (1.00) and Cracovia Krakow's defence rating (1.20), the model arrives at 1.37 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Cracovia Krakow's attack versus Piast Gliwice's defence, projects 1.16 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 8/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.6%), 1-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Piast Gliwice Win
42%
2.40
27%
3.76
32%
3.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Piast Gliwice xG
Total xG
2.54
1.16
Cracovia Krakow xG
2.40
42%
Home win
3.76
27%
Draw
3.15
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
31%
3.20
25%
3.95
Win to Nil
13%
7.69
8%
12.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 9.2 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 12.6 | 7.4 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 8.7 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.0 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Piast Gliwice vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Piast Gliwice and Cracovia Krakow expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Piast Gliwice and 1.16 for Cracovia Krakow, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Piast Gliwice vs Cracovia Krakow?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 8 outings, Piast Gliwice have picked up 1.25 PPG on a 3W 1D 4L record — W-D-W-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Piast Gliwice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cracovia Krakow's form line: 2W 3D 3L from 8 games, 1.12 PPG, last five L-W-W-D-D. The sample for Cracovia Krakow is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Piast Gliwice on 1.25 PPG, Cracovia Krakow on 1.12. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Piast Gliwice have posted 1.00 PPG from 4 outings (1W 1D 2L).
On the road, Cracovia Krakow have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Piast Gliwice are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Cracovia Krakow are on 1.12 scored and 1.62 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cracovia Krakow in 75%.
Last 8 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Piast Gliwice
Blended
Cracovia Krakow
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Piast Gliwice and Cracovia Krakow in coming into this match?
Piast Gliwice have gone 3W 1D 4L in their last 8 games (1.25 PPG), while Cracovia Krakow have gone 2W 3D 3L in their last 8 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Piast Gliwice at home or Cracovia Krakow away?
Piast Gliwice's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Piast Gliwice at home: 1.00 PPG; Cracovia Krakow away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Piast Gliwice and Cracovia Krakow runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 27 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Piast Gliwice's record when hosting Cracovia Krakow specifically: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Piast Gliwice
5
Draws
1
Cracovia Krakow
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Piast Gliwice and Cracovia Krakow?
From 10 meetings on record, Piast Gliwice have won 4, Cracovia Krakow have won 1, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Piast Gliwice and Cracovia Krakow last play each other?
They last met on 27 February 2026, when Cracovia Krakow 2-3 Piast Gliwice.
Who has won more matches between Piast Gliwice and Cracovia Krakow?
Piast Gliwice have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Piast Gliwice see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Cracovia Krakow see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Piast Gliwice 75%, Cracovia Krakow 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Piast Gliwice) and 50% (Cracovia Krakow).
On the defensive side: Cracovia Krakow in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Piast Gliwice home games / Cracovia Krakow away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Piast Gliwice play Cracovia Krakow?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Piast Gliwice's games and 50% of Cracovia Krakow's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Piast Gliwice vs Cracovia Krakow usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Piast Gliwice's recent games and 50% of Cracovia Krakow's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Cracovia Krakow cruise to a comfortable 2-4 victory over Piast Gliwice.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cracovia Krakow beat Piast Gliwice 2-4 at Stadion Miejski, Regular Season - 9, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Piast Gliwice 1.37 xG and Cracovia Krakow 1.16 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 2-4 for 6 actual goals. Cracovia Krakow outscored their 1.16 projection by 2.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Piast Gliwice attack 1.00 / defence 1.35 against Cracovia Krakow attack 0.75 / defence 1.20, drawn from 8/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Piast Gliwice 42% | Draw 27% | Cracovia Krakow 32%, with Piast Gliwice to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Cracovia Krakow win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Piast Gliwice 25%, Cracovia Krakow 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Piast Gliwice's trading profile (8 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did.
Cracovia Krakow's trading profile (8 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Piast Gliwice 1.25 PPG, Cracovia Krakow 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cracovia Krakow win broke the near-deadlock. Piast Gliwice (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Cracovia Krakow (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.75 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.