Nieciecza 1-1 Gornik Zabrze – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Gornik Zabrze at 36% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Nieciecza face Gornik Zabrze.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Nieciecza welcome Gornik Zabrze to Termalica Bruk-Bet Nieciecza in Ekstraklasa (matchday 21). Kick-off is Monday 16 February 2026 at 18:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Nieciecza — last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: W L W L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Nieciecza have gone 2W 2D 6L in their last 10 home games (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Gornik Zabrze have recorded 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D L L W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.80. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Gornik Zabrze have gone 3W 2D 5L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Nieciecza at 1.10 PPG versus Gornik Zabrze's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Nieciecza, 0 for Gornik Zabrze and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 8 Aug 2025, ended Nieciecza 1–0 Gornik Zabrze — a Nieciecza win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Nieciecza in-play and half-time data (last 20 games, 9 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in home games; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 43%; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Gornik Zabrze in-play and half-time data (last 20 games, 9 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 56% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Nieciecza 65% and Gornik Zabrze 55% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nieciecza 50% | Gornik Zabrze 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nieciecza 1.40 xG and Gornik Zabrze 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nieciecza attack 0.795 / defence 1.277 | Gornik Zabrze attack 0.946 / defence 1.222. League average goals — home 1.441 / away 1.169. Nieciecza's attack rating of 0.795 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.40. Gornik Zabrze's defence rating of 1.222 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Nieciecza's projected output up. Nieciecza's defence rating of 1.277 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Gornik Zabrze's projected output up. Data: built from Nieciecza's last 20 games and Gornik Zabrze's last 54.
Result probabilities: Nieciecza 36% | Draw 28% | Gornik Zabrze 36%. Fair-value odds: Nieciecza 2.80 | Draw 3.58 | Gornik Zabrze 2.75. The model can't separate the sides — both are rated at 36% to win, with the draw at 28%. There is no result lean here.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS Yes probability 58% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 58% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model can't separate the sides — Nieciecza 36% and Gornik Zabrze 36%, with the draw at 28%. There is no result lean from the model; the goals and BTTS markets below are where it has a view.
The Poisson model projects 2.81 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Nieciecza's last 10 home games and Gornik Zabrze's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Nieciecza 60% (last 10 home games) | Gornik Zabrze 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nieciecza vs Gornik Zabrze | Competition: Ekstraklasa, matchday 21 | Venue: Termalica Bruk-Bet Nieciecza • Kick-off: Monday 16 February 2026 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nieciecza 36% | Draw 28% | Gornik Zabrze 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% (Under 47%) | BTTS Yes 58% (No 42%) | xG Nieciecza 1.40 / Gornik Zabrze 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: Nieciecza attack 0.795 / def 1.277 | Gornik Zabrze attack 0.946 / def 1.222 | league avg home 1.441 / away 1.169 • Poisson stance: no clear lean — Nieciecza and Gornik Zabrze level at 36% — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Nieciecza xG
Expected Goals
1.41
Gornik Zabrze xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Nieciecza vs Gornik Zabrze FAQs
What time does Nieciecza vs Gornik Zabrze kick off?
Nieciecza vs Gornik Zabrze kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Monday 16 February 2026 at Termalica Bruk-Bet Nieciecza.
What was the final score in Nieciecza vs Gornik Zabrze?
Nieciecza 1 - 1 Gornik Zabrze.
Where is Nieciecza vs Gornik Zabrze being played?
The match is being played at Termalica Bruk-Bet Nieciecza.
What competition is Nieciecza vs Gornik Zabrze part of?
Nieciecza vs Gornik Zabrze is a Ekstraklasa fixture (matchday 21) (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Nieciecza vs Gornik Zabrze?
Our statistical model gives Nieciecza a 36% chance of winning, Gornik Zabrze a 36% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Nieciecza vs Gornik Zabrze?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Nieciecza and Gornik Zabrze will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Nieciecza vs Gornik Zabrze have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Nieciecza's attacking strength (0.80x league average) is weighed against Gornik Zabrze's defensive record (1.22x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.40. The same calculation in reverse, Gornik Zabrze's attack versus Nieciecza's defence, projects 1.41 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Nieciecza's last 20 games and Gornik Zabrze's last 54 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.4%), 2-1 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gornik Zabrze Win
36%
2.80
28%
3.58
36%
2.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
8.5%
Away win
1 – 0
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Nieciecza xG
Total xG
2.81
1.41
Gornik Zabrze xG
2.80
36%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
2.75
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.71
42%
BTTS No
2.40
Clean Sheet
24%
4.11
25%
4.06
Win to Nil
9%
11.49
9%
11.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 8.5 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 11.9 | 8.4 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 8.3 | 5.9 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.9 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Nieciecza vs Gornik Zabrze Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Nieciecza vs Gornik Zabrze?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Nieciecza and Gornik Zabrze expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Nieciecza and 1.41 for Gornik Zabrze, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Nieciecza vs Gornik Zabrze?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 20 outings, Nieciecza have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 5W 5D 10L record — W-L-W-L-D across the most recent five.
Gornik Zabrze's form line: 10W 3D 7L from 20 games, 1.65 PPG, last five D-L-L-W-L.
Put side by side, Gornik Zabrze are the form team by 0.65 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Nieciecza.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Nieciecza have posted 0.78 PPG from their last 9 home games (2W 1D 6L).
On the road, Gornik Zabrze have gone 3W 2D 4L from their last 9 away games — 1.22 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.65 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Gornik Zabrze's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Gornik Zabrze come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Nieciecza are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.85 conceded per game recently; Gornik Zabrze are on 1.55 scored and 1.30 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Nieciecza have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 20 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nieciecza
Blended
Gornik Zabrze
Blended
Nieciecza (Home) vs Gornik Zabrze (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Nieciecza
Blended
Gornik Zabrze
Blended
❓ Nieciecza vs Gornik Zabrze Form FAQs
What form are Nieciecza and Gornik Zabrze in coming into this match?
Nieciecza have gone 5W 5D 10L in their last 20 games (1.00 PPG), while Gornik Zabrze have gone 10W 3D 7L in their last 20 (1.65 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nieciecza at home or Gornik Zabrze away?
Gornik Zabrze's away record (1.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nieciecza at home: 0.78 PPG; Gornik Zabrze away: 1.22 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 4 H2H matches in our data, going back to September 2021. All of them came in Ekstraklasa. The most recent was on 16 February 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Nieciecza's record when hosting Gornik Zabrze specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Nieciecza
2
Draws
0
Gornik Zabrze
Recent Meetings
❓ Nieciecza vs Gornik Zabrze H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Nieciecza and Gornik Zabrze?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Nieciecza have won 2, Gornik Zabrze have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Nieciecza and Gornik Zabrze last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 16 February 2026: Nieciecza 1-1 Gornik Zabrze.
Who has won more matches between Nieciecza and Gornik Zabrze?
Nieciecza have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Nieciecza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches.
Gornik Zabrze see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nieciecza 56%, Gornik Zabrze 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Nieciecza) and 44% (Gornik Zabrze).
On the defensive side: Gornik Zabrze in 33%; Nieciecza have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nieciecza home games / Gornik Zabrze away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Nieciecza vs Gornik Zabrze Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Nieciecza and Gornik Zabrze matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Nieciecza's recent matches and 44% of Gornik Zabrze's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Nieciecza and Gornik Zabrze matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Nieciecza's recent games and 44% of Gornik Zabrze's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nieciecza and Gornik Zabrze matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 78% of Nieciecza's recent matches and 56% of Gornik Zabrze's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Nieciecza and Gornik Zabrze share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nieciecza and Gornik Zabrze finished level at 1-1 at Termalica Bruk-Bet Nieciecza, Regular Season - 21, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nieciecza 1.40 xG and Gornik Zabrze 1.41 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nieciecza attack 0.80 / defence 1.28 against Gornik Zabrze attack 0.95 / defence 1.22, drawn from 20/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nieciecza 36% | Draw 28% | Gornik Zabrze 36%, with Nieciecza to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nieciecza 50%, Gornik Zabrze 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nieciecza's trading profile (20 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Gornik Zabrze's trading profile (20 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Gornik Zabrze arrived the stronger side — 1.65 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Nieciecza (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.