Motor Lublin 3-3 Legia Warszawa – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Motor Lublin at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Motor Lublin vs Legia Warszawa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ekstraklasa encounter, Regular Season - 24 sees Legia Warszawa travel to Motor Lublin Arena to take on Motor Lublin. The game is scheduled for Monday 10 March 2025, 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Motor Lublin stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D L L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Motor Lublin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Motor Lublin's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at Motor Lublin Arena this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Legia Warszawa — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D L W L W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.60. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Legia Warszawa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Legia Warszawa have posted 2W 4D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Motor Lublin at 2.00 PPG versus Legia Warszawa's 1.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Motor Lublin register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Legia Warszawa in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Motor Lublin, 1 for Legia Warszawa and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 7.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 1 Sep 2024, ended 2–5 with Legia Warszawa winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 7.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Motor Lublin trading profile (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Legia Warszawa trading profile (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Motor Lublin 52% versus Legia Warszawa 65%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Motor Lublin 48% | Legia Warszawa 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Motor Lublin 1.58 xG and Legia Warszawa 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Motor Lublin attack 1.031 / defence 1.176 | Legia Warszawa attack 1.019 / defence 1.138. League average goals — home 1.349 / away 1.168. Data: 23 Motor Lublin games / 57 Legia Warszawa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Motor Lublin 42% | Draw 24% | Legia Warszawa 34%. Fair-value odds: Motor Lublin 2.38 | Draw 4.17 | Legia Warszawa 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.98. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.98 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.58 / 1.40) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Motor Lublin as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Motor Lublin offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.98 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate: Motor Lublin 60% | Legia Warszawa 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Motor Lublin vs Legia Warszawa | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Motor Lublin Arena • Kick-off: Monday 10 Mar 2025, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Motor Lublin 42% | Draw 24% | Legia Warszawa 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 60% | xG Motor Lublin 1.58 / Legia Warszawa 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: Motor Lublin attack 1.031 / def 1.176 | Legia Warszawa attack 1.019 / def 1.138 | league avg home 1.349 / away 1.168 • Poisson stance: Motor Lublin (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
Motor Lublin xG
Expected Goals
1.40
Legia Warszawa xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Motor Lublin vs Legia Warszawa kick off?
Motor Lublin vs Legia Warszawa kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 10 March 2025 at Motor Lublin Arena.
What was the final score in Motor Lublin vs Legia Warszawa?
Motor Lublin 3 - 3 Legia Warszawa.
Where is Motor Lublin vs Legia Warszawa being played?
The match is being played at Motor Lublin Arena.
What competition is Motor Lublin vs Legia Warszawa part of?
Motor Lublin vs Legia Warszawa is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Motor Lublin vs Legia Warszawa?
Our statistical model gives Motor Lublin a 42% chance of winning, Legia Warszawa a 34% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Motor Lublin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Motor Lublin vs Legia Warszawa?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Motor Lublin and Legia Warszawa will score (BTTS).
Will Motor Lublin vs Legia Warszawa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Motor Lublin and Legia Warszawa?
Record (1 meetings): Motor Lublin 0W | Draws 0 | Legia Warszawa 1W.
What form are Motor Lublin and Legia Warszawa in?
Motor Lublin (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-L-W-W. Legia Warszawa (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Motor Lublin's attacking strength (1.03x league average) is weighed against Legia Warszawa's defensive record (1.14x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.58. The same calculation in reverse, Legia Warszawa's attack versus Motor Lublin's defence, projects 1.40 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 23/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Motor Lublin Win
42%
2.39
24%
4.12
34%
2.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 0
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
Motor Lublin xG
Total xG
2.98
1.40
Legia Warszawa xG
2.39
42%
Home win
4.12
24%
Draw
2.96
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.49
Clean Sheet
25%
4.06
21%
4.86
Win to Nil
10%
9.68
7%
14.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 7.1 | 5.0 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 11.2 | 7.9 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 8.9 | 6.2 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.7 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Motor Lublin vs Legia Warszawa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Motor Lublin and Legia Warszawa expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Motor Lublin and 1.40 for Legia Warszawa, a combined total of 2.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Motor Lublin vs Legia Warszawa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 23 outings, Motor Lublin have picked up 1.52 PPG on a 10W 5D 8L record — D-L-L-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Motor Lublin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Legia Warszawa's form line: 11W 6D 6L from 23 games, 1.70 PPG, last five D-L-W-L-W. The sample for Legia Warszawa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Motor Lublin on 1.52 PPG, Legia Warszawa on 1.70. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Motor Lublin have posted 1.64 PPG from 11 outings (5W 3D 3L).
On the road, Legia Warszawa have gone 3W 4D 4L from 11 away games — 1.18 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.70 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Legia Warszawa's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Motor Lublin come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Motor Lublin are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 1.61 conceded per game recently; Legia Warszawa are on 1.87 scored and 1.26 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Legia Warszawa in 65%.
Last 23 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Motor Lublin
Blended
Legia Warszawa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Motor Lublin and Legia Warszawa in coming into this match?
Motor Lublin have gone 10W 5D 8L in their last 23 games (1.52 PPG), while Legia Warszawa have gone 11W 6D 6L in their last 23 (1.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Motor Lublin at home or Legia Warszawa away?
Motor Lublin's home record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Motor Lublin at home: 1.64 PPG; Legia Warszawa away: 1.18 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Motor Lublin and Legia Warszawa runs to 5 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. The two were last together as recently as 5 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Legia Warszawa have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 23 May 2026, when Legia Warszawa won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Motor Lublin's record when hosting Legia Warszawa specifically: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
0
Motor Lublin
2
Draws
3
Legia Warszawa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Motor Lublin and Legia Warszawa?
From 5 meetings on record, Motor Lublin have won 0, Legia Warszawa have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Motor Lublin and Legia Warszawa last play each other?
They last met on 5 September 2026, when Motor Lublin 2-3 Legia Warszawa.
Who has won more matches between Motor Lublin and Legia Warszawa?
Legia Warszawa have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Motor Lublin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Legia Warszawa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Motor Lublin 54%, Legia Warszawa 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Motor Lublin) and 46% (Legia Warszawa).
On the defensive side: Motor Lublin have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Motor Lublin home games / Legia Warszawa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Motor Lublin play Legia Warszawa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Motor Lublin's recent matches and 54% of Legia Warszawa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Motor Lublin vs Legia Warszawa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Motor Lublin's recent games and 46% of Legia Warszawa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Motor Lublin and Legia Warszawa tend to score early?
Motor Lublin have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Legia Warszawa in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Motor Lublin and Legia Warszawa share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Motor Lublin and Legia Warszawa finished level at 3-3 at Motor Lublin Arena, Regular Season - 24, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Motor Lublin 1.58 xG and Legia Warszawa 1.40 xG, a combined 2.98. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Motor Lublin beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Legia Warszawa outscored their 1.40 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Motor Lublin attack 1.03 / defence 1.18 against Legia Warszawa attack 1.02 / defence 1.14, drawn from 23/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Motor Lublin 42% | Draw 24% | Legia Warszawa 34%, with Motor Lublin to win its most likely call at 42%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Motor Lublin 48%, Legia Warszawa 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Motor Lublin's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Legia Warszawa's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Motor Lublin 1.52 PPG, Legia Warszawa 1.70 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Motor Lublin (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.45 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.36 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Legia Warszawa (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.36 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.45 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.