Motor Lublin 3-3 Cracovia Krakow – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Motor Lublin at 48% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Motor Lublin vs Cracovia Krakow encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Motor Lublin Arena plays host to Motor Lublin versus Cracovia Krakow in Ekstraklasa (matchday 33). Kick-off: Saturday 16 May 2026 at 14:45 UK time.
Form
Motor Lublin (all games): 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D L L L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Motor Lublin's form when playing at home: 3W 5D 2L across their last 10 home games (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Cracovia Krakow's record over their last 10 games: 1W 4D 5L (0.70 PPG). Last five: D L D D D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
On the road, Cracovia Krakow have gone 2W 4D 4L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The points-per-game gap of 0.80 in Motor Lublin's favour (1.50 vs 0.70) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 3 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Motor Lublin, 2 for Cracovia Krakow and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 4.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 22 Nov 2025, ended Motor Lublin 2–1 Cracovia Krakow — a Motor Lublin win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Motor Lublin goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 66 games, 33 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games).
Cracovia Krakow goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 66 games, 33 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 53%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Motor Lublin 58% versus Cracovia Krakow 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Motor Lublin 52% | Cracovia Krakow 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Motor Lublin 1.29 xG and Cracovia Krakow 0.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Motor Lublin attack 0.886 / defence 0.922 | Cracovia Krakow attack 0.736 / defence 1.057. League average goals — home 1.376 / away 1.094. Cracovia Krakow's attack rating of 0.736 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.74. Data: built from Motor Lublin's last 66 games and Cracovia Krakow's last 66.
Result probabilities: Motor Lublin 48% | Draw 32% | Cracovia Krakow 20%. Fair-value odds: Motor Lublin 2.08 | Draw 3.14 | Cracovia Krakow 4.99. Motor Lublin hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS Yes probability 39% | Total xG 2.03. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.03 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 61% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Motor Lublin as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Motor Lublin if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.03 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 67% probability — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Motor Lublin's last 10 home games and Cracovia Krakow's last 10 away games) averaging 1.8 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging 4.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Motor Lublin 60% (last 10 home games) | Cracovia Krakow 20% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Motor Lublin vs Cracovia Krakow | Competition: Ekstraklasa, matchday 33 | Venue: Motor Lublin Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 16 May 2026 at 14:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Motor Lublin 48% | Draw 32% | Cracovia Krakow 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% (Under 67%) | BTTS Yes 39% (No 61%) | xG Motor Lublin 1.29 / Cracovia Krakow 0.74 • Poisson strength factors: Motor Lublin attack 0.886 / def 0.922 | Cracovia Krakow attack 0.736 / def 1.057 | league avg home 1.376 / away 1.094 • Poisson stance: Motor Lublin (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Motor Lublin xG
Expected Goals
0.74
Cracovia Krakow xG
39%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Motor Lublin vs Cracovia Krakow FAQs
What time does Motor Lublin vs Cracovia Krakow kick off?
Motor Lublin vs Cracovia Krakow kicked off at 14:45 UK time on Saturday 16 May 2026 at Motor Lublin Arena.
What was the final score in Motor Lublin vs Cracovia Krakow?
Motor Lublin 3 - 3 Cracovia Krakow.
Where is Motor Lublin vs Cracovia Krakow being played?
The match is being played at Motor Lublin Arena.
What competition is Motor Lublin vs Cracovia Krakow part of?
Motor Lublin vs Cracovia Krakow is a Ekstraklasa fixture (matchday 33) (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Motor Lublin vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our statistical model gives Motor Lublin a 48% chance of winning, Cracovia Krakow a 20% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Motor Lublin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Motor Lublin vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Motor Lublin and Cracovia Krakow will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (61%).
Will Motor Lublin vs Cracovia Krakow have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (67%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Motor Lublin's attack rating (0.89) and Cracovia Krakow's defence rating (1.06), the model arrives at 1.29 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Cracovia Krakow's attack (0.74x) against Motor Lublin's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 0.74.
These ratings are built from Motor Lublin's last 66 games and Cracovia Krakow's last 66 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.8%), 1-1 (14.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Motor Lublin Win
48%
2.08
32%
3.14
20%
4.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.9%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.1%
Draw
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Motor Lublin xG
Total xG
2.03
0.74
Cracovia Krakow xG
2.08
48%
Home win
3.14
32%
Draw
4.99
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.54
61%
BTTS No
1.65
Clean Sheet
48%
2.10
28%
3.63
Win to Nil
23%
4.37
6%
18.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.1 | 9.7 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.9 | 12.5 | 4.7 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.9 | 8.1 | 3.0 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.7 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Motor Lublin vs Cracovia Krakow Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Motor Lublin vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Motor Lublin and Cracovia Krakow expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Motor Lublin and 0.74 for Cracovia Krakow, a combined total of 2.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Motor Lublin vs Cracovia Krakow?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 66 outings, Motor Lublin have picked up 1.38 PPG on a 24W 19D 23L record — D-L-L-L-W across the most recent five.
Cracovia Krakow's form line: 23W 22D 21L from 66 games, 1.38 PPG, last five D-L-D-D-D.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.38 PPG for Motor Lublin against 1.38 for Cracovia Krakow. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Motor Lublin have posted 1.45 PPG from their last 33 home games (12W 12D 9L).
On the road, Cracovia Krakow have gone 13W 8D 12L from their last 33 away games — 1.42 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Motor Lublin are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; Cracovia Krakow are on 1.41 scored and 1.38 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cracovia Krakow in 62%.
Last 66 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Motor Lublin
Current Season
Cracovia Krakow
Current Season
Motor Lublin (Home) vs Cracovia Krakow (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Motor Lublin
Current Season
Cracovia Krakow
Current Season
❓ Motor Lublin vs Cracovia Krakow Form FAQs
What form are Motor Lublin and Cracovia Krakow in coming into this match?
Motor Lublin have gone 24W 19D 23L in their last 66 games (1.38 PPG), while Cracovia Krakow have gone 23W 22D 21L in their last 66 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Motor Lublin at home or Cracovia Krakow away?
Motor Lublin's home record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Motor Lublin at home: 1.45 PPG; Cracovia Krakow away: 1.42 PPG.
Have Motor Lublin or Cracovia Krakow been keeping clean sheets recently?
Motor Lublin have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Cracovia Krakow in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 5 H2H matches between Motor Lublin and Cracovia Krakow, the earliest from October 2024. All of them came in Ekstraklasa. The most recent was as recently as 30 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Cracovia Krakow won Cracovia Krakow 6-2 Motor Lublin on 26 Oct 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Motor Lublin have gone 0W 1D 1L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Cracovia Krakow — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Motor Lublin
1
Draws
2
Cracovia Krakow
Recent Meetings
❓ Motor Lublin vs Cracovia Krakow H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Motor Lublin and Cracovia Krakow?
Across the 5 head-to-head matches in our data, Motor Lublin have won 2, Cracovia Krakow have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Motor Lublin and Cracovia Krakow last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 30 October 2026: Cracovia Krakow 1-2 Motor Lublin.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Motor Lublin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 30% of those situations.
Cracovia Krakow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 30% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Motor Lublin 58%, Cracovia Krakow 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Motor Lublin) and 54% (Cracovia Krakow).
On the defensive side: Motor Lublin keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; Cracovia Krakow in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Motor Lublin home games / Cracovia Krakow away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Motor Lublin vs Cracovia Krakow Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Motor Lublin and Cracovia Krakow matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Motor Lublin's games and 54% of Cracovia Krakow's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Motor Lublin and Cracovia Krakow matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Motor Lublin's recent games and 54% of Cracovia Krakow's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Motor Lublin and Cracovia Krakow matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 73% of Motor Lublin's recent matches and 67% of Cracovia Krakow's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Motor Lublin and Cracovia Krakow share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Motor Lublin Arena, Regular Season - 33, as Motor Lublin and Cracovia Krakow drew 3-3 in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Motor Lublin 1.29 xG and Cracovia Krakow 0.74 xG, a combined 2.03. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Motor Lublin beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Cracovia Krakow outscored their 0.74 projection by 2.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Motor Lublin attack 0.89 / defence 0.92 against Cracovia Krakow attack 0.74 / defence 1.06, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Motor Lublin 48% | Draw 32% | Cracovia Krakow 20%, with Motor Lublin to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. Over 3.5 was 15% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Motor Lublin 52%, Cracovia Krakow 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Motor Lublin's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Cracovia Krakow's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Motor Lublin 1.38 PPG, Cracovia Krakow 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Motor Lublin (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.39 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.30 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Cracovia Krakow (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.30 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.36 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.