Miedz Legnica 1-1 Cracovia Krakow – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Cracovia Krakow at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Miedz Legnica vs Cracovia Krakow encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ekstraklasa encounter, Regular Season - 13 sees Cracovia Krakow travel to Stadion im. Orła Białego to take on Miedz Legnica. The game is scheduled for Sunday 16 October 2022, 11:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Miedz Legnica stand at 1W 1D 8L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Miedz Legnica, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Miedz Legnica have posted 1W 1D 3L at Stadion im. Orła Białego — 0.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Cracovia Krakow have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Cracovia Krakow, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Cracovia Krakow have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Cracovia Krakow — 0.70 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.10 vs 0.40). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Trading Patterns
Miedz Legnica in-play and half-time data (11 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Cracovia Krakow in-play and half-time data (11 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games (away games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Miedz Legnica 73% versus Cracovia Krakow 18%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Miedz Legnica 64% | Cracovia Krakow 18%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Miedz Legnica 0.89 xG and Cracovia Krakow 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Miedz Legnica attack 0.766 / defence 1.258 | Cracovia Krakow attack 0.880 / defence 0.882. League average goals — home 1.318 / away 1.163. Miedz Legnica's attack strength of 0.766 is below the league average — the 0.89 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 11 Miedz Legnica games / 46 Cracovia Krakow games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Miedz Legnica 26% | Draw 29% | Cracovia Krakow 46%. Fair-value odds: Miedz Legnica 3.85 | Draw 3.45 | Cracovia Krakow 2.17. Cracovia Krakow hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.18. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.18 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Cracovia Krakow as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cracovia Krakow offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.18 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 37% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates corroborate: Miedz Legnica 60% | Cracovia Krakow 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Miedz Legnica vs Cracovia Krakow | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Stadion im. Orła Białego • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Oct 2022, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Miedz Legnica 26% | Draw 29% | Cracovia Krakow 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 43% | xG Miedz Legnica 0.89 / Cracovia Krakow 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Miedz Legnica attack 0.766 / def 1.258 | Cracovia Krakow attack 0.880 / def 0.882 | league avg home 1.318 / away 1.163 • Poisson stance: Cracovia Krakow (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.89
Miedz Legnica xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Cracovia Krakow xG
43%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Miedz Legnica vs Cracovia Krakow kick off?
Miedz Legnica vs Cracovia Krakow kicked off at 11:30 on Sunday 16 October 2022 at Stadion im. Orła Białego.
What was the final score in Miedz Legnica vs Cracovia Krakow?
Miedz Legnica 1 - 1 Cracovia Krakow.
Where is Miedz Legnica vs Cracovia Krakow being played?
The match is being played at Stadion im. Orła Białego.
What competition is Miedz Legnica vs Cracovia Krakow part of?
Miedz Legnica vs Cracovia Krakow is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Miedz Legnica vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our statistical model gives Miedz Legnica a 26% chance of winning, Cracovia Krakow a 46% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Cracovia Krakow the favourite.
Will both teams score in Miedz Legnica vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Miedz Legnica and Cracovia Krakow will score (BTTS).
Will Miedz Legnica vs Cracovia Krakow have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Miedz Legnica and Cracovia Krakow?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Miedz Legnica and Cracovia Krakow in?
Miedz Legnica (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-L-L-L. Cracovia Krakow (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Miedz Legnica's attacking strength (0.77x league average) is weighed against Cracovia Krakow's defensive record (0.88x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.89. The same calculation in reverse, Cracovia Krakow's attack versus Miedz Legnica's defence, projects 1.29 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 11/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.0%), 0-1 (12.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cracovia Krakow Win
26%
3.88
29%
3.50
46%
2.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
11.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.89
Miedz Legnica xG
Total xG
2.18
1.29
Cracovia Krakow xG
3.88
26%
Home win
3.50
29%
Draw
2.19
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.34
57%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
28%
3.63
41%
2.44
Win to Nil
7%
14.08
19%
5.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.3 | 14.6 | 9.4 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 13.0 | 8.4 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 5.8 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Miedz Legnica vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Miedz Legnica and Cracovia Krakow expected to score?
The model projects 0.89 expected goals for Miedz Legnica and 1.29 for Cracovia Krakow, a combined total of 2.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Miedz Legnica vs Cracovia Krakow?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 11 outings, Miedz Legnica have picked up 0.45 PPG on a 1W 2D 8L record — L-D-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Miedz Legnica is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cracovia Krakow's form line: 4W 2D 5L from 11 games, 1.27 PPG, last five W-L-D-W-L. The sample for Cracovia Krakow is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Cracovia Krakow are the form team by 0.82 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Miedz Legnica.
Venue Form
On home soil, Miedz Legnica have posted 1.00 PPG from 4 outings (1W 1D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 0.45 PPG overall — Miedz Legnica are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Cracovia Krakow have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Miedz Legnica are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.91 conceded per game recently; Cracovia Krakow are on 1.09 scored and 0.91 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Miedz Legnica have seen both teams score in 73% of their recent games; Cracovia Krakow in 18%.
Defensively: Cracovia Krakow in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 11 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Miedz Legnica
Blended
Cracovia Krakow
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Miedz Legnica and Cracovia Krakow in coming into this match?
Miedz Legnica have gone 1W 2D 8L in their last 11 games (0.45 PPG), while Cracovia Krakow have gone 4W 2D 5L in their last 11 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Miedz Legnica at home or Cracovia Krakow away?
Miedz Legnica's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Miedz Legnica at home: 1.00 PPG; Cracovia Krakow away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Miedz Legnica or Cracovia Krakow been keeping clean sheets recently?
Miedz Legnica have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Cracovia Krakow in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Miedz Legnica
2
Draws
0
Cracovia Krakow
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Miedz Legnica and Cracovia Krakow?
From 2 meetings on record, Miedz Legnica have won 0, Cracovia Krakow have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Miedz Legnica and Cracovia Krakow last play each other?
They last met on 1 May 2023, when Cracovia Krakow 1-1 Miedz Legnica.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Miedz Legnica are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Cracovia Krakow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Miedz Legnica 50%, Cracovia Krakow 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 50% for Miedz Legnica and 0% for Cracovia Krakow.
On the defensive side: Miedz Legnica have failed to score in 50% of games; Cracovia Krakow in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Miedz Legnica home games / Cracovia Krakow away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Miedz Legnica play Cracovia Krakow?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Miedz Legnica's recent matches and 25% of Cracovia Krakow's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Miedz Legnica vs Cracovia Krakow usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Miedz Legnica's recent games and 0% of Cracovia Krakow's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Miedz Legnica and Cracovia Krakow tend to score early?
Miedz Legnica have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Cracovia Krakow in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Miedz Legnica and Cracovia Krakow share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion im. Orła Białego, Regular Season - 13, as Miedz Legnica and Cracovia Krakow drew 1-1 in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Miedz Legnica 0.89 xG and Cracovia Krakow 1.29 xG, a combined 2.18. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Miedz Legnica attack 0.77 / defence 1.26 against Cracovia Krakow attack 0.88 / defence 0.88, drawn from 11/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Miedz Legnica 26% | Draw 29% | Cracovia Krakow 46%, with Cracovia Krakow to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Miedz Legnica 64%, Cracovia Krakow 18%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Miedz Legnica's trading profile (11 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did.
Cracovia Krakow's trading profile (11 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 18% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Cracovia Krakow arrived the stronger side — 1.27 PPG against 0.45. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.