Legia Warszawa 4-0 Zaglebie Lubin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Legia Warszawa at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Legia Warszawa vs Zaglebie Lubin fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego plays host to Legia Warszawa versus Zaglebie Lubin in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off: Wednesday 15 December 2021 at 19:30 UTC.
Current Form
Legia Warszawa's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 1W 0D 9L from 10 games (0.30 PPG). Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Legia Warszawa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego, Legia Warszawa have gone 3W 0D 4L this season (7 games, 1.29 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.29 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.30 — Legia Warszawa are significantly better at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego than their overall form suggests.
Zaglebie Lubin have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Zaglebie Lubin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Zaglebie Lubin have gone 2W 1D 5L from 8 away fixtures this term (0.88 PPG). Away from home they average 0.75 goals scored and 2.12 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 8 away games (38%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Zaglebie Lubin arrive in superior form — a 0.50 PPG advantage (0.80 vs 0.30) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Trading & In-Play
Legia Warszawa — key trading statistics (16 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they fail to score in 38% of games.
Zaglebie Lubin — key trading statistics (16 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Legia Warszawa 44% versus Zaglebie Lubin 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Legia Warszawa 44% | Zaglebie Lubin 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Legia Warszawa 1.42 xG and Zaglebie Lubin 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Legia Warszawa attack 0.798 / defence 1.252 | Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.694 / defence 1.468. League average goals — home 1.210 / away 1.217. Legia Warszawa's attack strength of 0.798 is below the league average — the 1.42 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Zaglebie Lubin bring a strong defensive rating of 1.468 — this is suppressing Legia Warszawa's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 16 Legia Warszawa games / 17 Zaglebie Lubin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Legia Warszawa 45% | Draw 27% | Zaglebie Lubin 28%. Fair-value odds: Legia Warszawa 2.22 | Draw 3.70 | Zaglebie Lubin 3.57. Legia Warszawa hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Legia Warszawa are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Zaglebie Lubin (0.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Legia Warszawa if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.47 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates corroborate: Legia Warszawa 43% | Zaglebie Lubin 25% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Legia Warszawa vs Zaglebie Lubin | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego • Kick-off: Wednesday 15 Dec 2021, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Legia Warszawa 45% | Draw 27% | Zaglebie Lubin 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 49% | xG Legia Warszawa 1.42 / Zaglebie Lubin 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Legia Warszawa attack 0.798 / def 1.252 | Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.694 / def 1.468 | league avg home 1.210 / away 1.217 • Poisson stance: Legia Warszawa (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Legia Warszawa xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Zaglebie Lubin xG
49%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Legia Warszawa vs Zaglebie Lubin kick off?
Legia Warszawa vs Zaglebie Lubin kicked off at 19:30 on Wednesday 15 December 2021 at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What was the final score in Legia Warszawa vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Legia Warszawa 4 - 0 Zaglebie Lubin.
Where is Legia Warszawa vs Zaglebie Lubin being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What competition is Legia Warszawa vs Zaglebie Lubin part of?
Legia Warszawa vs Zaglebie Lubin is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Legia Warszawa vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Our statistical model gives Legia Warszawa a 45% chance of winning, Zaglebie Lubin a 28% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Legia Warszawa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Legia Warszawa vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Legia Warszawa and Zaglebie Lubin will score (BTTS).
Will Legia Warszawa vs Zaglebie Lubin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Legia Warszawa and Zaglebie Lubin?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Legia Warszawa and Zaglebie Lubin in?
Legia Warszawa (all comps): 1W-0D-9L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-W-L-L. Zaglebie Lubin (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Legia Warszawa's attack at 0.80x the league average against Zaglebie Lubin's defence at 1.47x — combine the two and it projects 1.42 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Zaglebie Lubin's attack (0.69x) against Legia Warszawa's defence (1.25x) — and the away total comes out at 1.06.
These ratings are built from 16/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.3%), 0-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Legia Warszawa Win
45%
2.21
27%
3.76
28%
3.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Legia Warszawa xG
Total xG
2.47
1.06
Zaglebie Lubin xG
2.21
45%
Home win
3.76
27%
Draw
3.56
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.02
51%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
35%
2.88
24%
4.13
Win to Nil
16%
6.36
7%
14.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 8.9 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 12.6 | 6.7 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 8.9 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.2 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Legia Warszawa vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Legia Warszawa and Zaglebie Lubin expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Legia Warszawa and 1.06 for Zaglebie Lubin, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Legia Warszawa vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Legia Warszawa come into this having played 16 games, going 4W 0D 12L for 0.75 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-L-L. The sample for Legia Warszawa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Zaglebie Lubin sit at 1.25 PPG from 16 outings (6W 2D 8L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for Zaglebie Lubin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Zaglebie Lubin carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.50 PPG clear of Legia Warszawa — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Legia Warszawa's home form reads 3W 0D 4L across 7 games on their own ground, a 1.29 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 0.75 PPG overall — Legia Warszawa are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Zaglebie Lubin have taken 1.00 points per game from 7 outings (2W 1D 4L).
Attack vs Defence
Legia Warszawa are averaging 0.94 goals scored and 1.69 conceded per game recently; Zaglebie Lubin are on 1.19 scored and 1.69 conceded.
Last 16 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Legia Warszawa
Blended
Zaglebie Lubin
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Legia Warszawa and Zaglebie Lubin in coming into this match?
Legia Warszawa have gone 4W 0D 12L in their last 16 games (0.75 PPG), while Zaglebie Lubin have gone 6W 2D 8L in their last 16 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Legia Warszawa at home or Zaglebie Lubin away?
Legia Warszawa's home record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Legia Warszawa at home: 1.29 PPG; Zaglebie Lubin away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to February 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. The two were last together as recently as 2 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Legia Warszawa go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Legia Warszawa won 0-3 on 3 Dec 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Legia Warszawa have gone 5W 0D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Zaglebie Lubin — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
9
Legia Warszawa
0
Draws
1
Zaglebie Lubin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Legia Warszawa and Zaglebie Lubin?
From 10 meetings on record, Legia Warszawa have won 9, Zaglebie Lubin have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Legia Warszawa and Zaglebie Lubin last play each other?
They last met on 2 August 2026, when Legia Warszawa 3-1 Zaglebie Lubin.
Who has won more matches between Legia Warszawa and Zaglebie Lubin?
Legia Warszawa have the better head-to-head record, with 9 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Legia Warszawa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Zaglebie Lubin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Legia Warszawa 43%, Zaglebie Lubin 29% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Legia Warszawa) and 57% (Zaglebie Lubin).
On the defensive side: Zaglebie Lubin in 43%; Legia Warszawa have failed to score in 29% of games; Zaglebie Lubin in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Legia Warszawa home games / Zaglebie Lubin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Legia Warszawa play Zaglebie Lubin?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Legia Warszawa's recent matches and 29% of Zaglebie Lubin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Legia Warszawa vs Zaglebie Lubin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Legia Warszawa's recent games and 57% of Zaglebie Lubin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Legia Warszawa and Zaglebie Lubin tend to score early?
Legia Warszawa have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Zaglebie Lubin in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Legia Warszawa run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Zaglebie Lubin.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Legia Warszawa beat Zaglebie Lubin 4-0 at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego, Regular Season - 3, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Legia Warszawa 1.42 xG and Zaglebie Lubin 1.06 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Legia Warszawa beat their projection by 2.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Zaglebie Lubin landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Legia Warszawa attack 0.80 / defence 1.25 against Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.69 / defence 1.47, drawn from 16/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Legia Warszawa 45% | Draw 27% | Zaglebie Lubin 28%, with Legia Warszawa to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Legia Warszawa 44%, Zaglebie Lubin 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Legia Warszawa's trading profile (16 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not.
Zaglebie Lubin's trading profile (16 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Zaglebie Lubin arrived the stronger side — 1.25 PPG against 0.75. Form was overturned, with Legia Warszawa winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Legia Warszawa (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.43 average — tighter than their form line. Zaglebie Lubin (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.86 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.