Legia Warszawa vs Wieczysta Kraków – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Legia Warszawa at 71% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Legia Warszawa vs Wieczysta Kraków encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Wieczysta Kraków make the trip to Stadion Wojska Polskiego to face Legia Warszawa in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 16. The match kicks off on Saturday 28 November 2026 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Legia Warszawa have collected 2.40 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 7W 3D 0L. Last five: W D W D D. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Legia Warszawa have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Legia Warszawa's form when playing at home: 7W 3D 0L across 10 games at Stadion Wojska Polskiego this term (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion Wojska Polskiego.
Wieczysta Kraków's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 1W 0D 4L from 5 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: L L W L L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 2.40. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Wieczysta Kraków have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Wieczysta Kraków have posted 1W 0D 3L from 4 away outings — 0.75 PPG. Away from home they average 1.75 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The points-per-game gap of 1.80 in Legia Warszawa's favour (2.40 vs 0.60) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Trading
Legia Warszawa half-time and goal-timing data (5 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 60% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 40% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games; Over 3.5 in 40%.
Wieczysta Kraków half-time and goal-timing data (5 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games; Over 3.5 in 40%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Legia Warszawa 80% and Wieczysta Kraków 80% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Legia Warszawa 40% | Wieczysta Kraków 80%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Legia Warszawa 2.76 xG and Wieczysta Kraków 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Legia Warszawa attack 1.284 / defence 0.793 | Wieczysta Kraków attack 1.034 / defence 1.392. League average goals — home 1.543 / away 1.303. Legia Warszawa carry an above-average attack strength of 1.284 — their λ of 2.76 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Wieczysta Kraków bring a strong defensive rating of 1.392 — this is suppressing Legia Warszawa's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Legia Warszawa's defence rating of 0.793 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 40 Legia Warszawa games / 5 Wieczysta Kraków games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Legia Warszawa 71% | Draw 18% | Wieczysta Kraków 10%. Fair-value odds: Legia Warszawa 1.41 | Draw 5.56 | Wieczysta Kraków 10.00. The model has a clear lean to Legia Warszawa (71%) — a 61pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 74% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.83. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 74% — a total xG of 3.83 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (2.76 / 1.07) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Legia Warszawa as the most likely outcome at 71% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.83 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 74% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Legia Warszawa 50% | Wieczysta Kraków 75% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Legia Warszawa vs Wieczysta Kraków | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Stadion Wojska Polskiego • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Nov 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Legia Warszawa 71% | Draw 18% | Wieczysta Kraków 10% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 74% | BTTS 63% | xG Legia Warszawa 2.76 / Wieczysta Kraków 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Legia Warszawa attack 1.284 / def 0.793 | Wieczysta Kraków attack 1.034 / def 1.392 | league avg home 1.543 / away 1.303 • Poisson stance: Legia Warszawa (71%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.76
Legia Warszawa xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Wieczysta Kraków xG
63%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
74%
Over 2.5
53%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Legia Warszawa vs Wieczysta Kraków kick off?
Legia Warszawa vs Wieczysta Kraków is scheduled to kick off at 17:00 on Saturday 28 November 2026 at Stadion Wojska Polskiego.
Where is Legia Warszawa vs Wieczysta Kraków being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Wojska Polskiego.
What competition is Legia Warszawa vs Wieczysta Kraków part of?
Legia Warszawa vs Wieczysta Kraków is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Legia Warszawa vs Wieczysta Kraków?
Our statistical model gives Legia Warszawa a 71% chance of winning, Wieczysta Kraków a 10% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Legia Warszawa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Legia Warszawa vs Wieczysta Kraków?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Legia Warszawa and Wieczysta Kraków will score (BTTS).
Will Legia Warszawa vs Wieczysta Kraków have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 74%.
What is the head-to-head record between Legia Warszawa and Wieczysta Kraków?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Legia Warszawa and Wieczysta Kraków in?
Legia Warszawa (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-D-W-D-D. Wieczysta Kraków (all comps): 1W-0D-4L in 5 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Legia Warszawa's attacking strength (1.28x league average) is weighed against Wieczysta Kraków's defensive record (1.39x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.76. Flip it around — Wieczysta Kraków's attack (1.03x) against Legia Warszawa's defence (0.79x) — and the away total comes out at 1.07.
These ratings are built from 40/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 8.9%. Close behind: 2-0 (8.3%), 3-1 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Legia Warszawa Win
71%
1.41
18%
5.43
10%
9.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
8.3%
Home win
3 – 1
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.76
Legia Warszawa xG
Total xG
3.83
1.07
Wieczysta Kraków xG
1.41
71%
Home win
5.43
18%
Draw
9.55
10%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
74%
Over 2.5
1.35
26%
Under 2.5
3.85
53%
Over 3.5
1.89
47%
Under 3.5
2.13
34%
Over 4.5
2.94
66%
Under 4.5
1.52
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.71
Clean Sheet
34%
2.91
6%
15.78
Win to Nil
24%
4.09
1%
150.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 6.0 | 6.4 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 8.9 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.6 | 8.1 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 5.3 | 5.6 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 2.9 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Legia Warszawa vs Wieczysta Kraków?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.9%.
How many goals are Legia Warszawa and Wieczysta Kraków expected to score?
The model projects 2.76 expected goals for Legia Warszawa and 1.07 for Wieczysta Kraków, a combined total of 3.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Legia Warszawa vs Wieczysta Kraków?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 71%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Legia Warszawa's recent record stands at 2W 3D 0L from 5 games, a 1.80 PPG return, with W-D-W-D-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Legia Warszawa, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Wieczysta Kraków, meanwhile, have gone 1W 0D 4L across 5 games — 0.60 PPG, with L-L-W-L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Wieczysta Kraków, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Legia Warszawa by 1.20 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Wieczysta Kraków heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Legia Warszawa have managed 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — 2.33 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.80 PPG overall — Legia Warszawa are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Wieczysta Kraków's away record stands at 1W 0D 2L across 3 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul. That's actually stronger than their 0.60 PPG overall record — Wieczysta Kraków travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Legia Warszawa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Legia Warszawa are averaging 2.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game recently; Wieczysta Kraków are on 1.60 scored and 2.40 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Legia Warszawa have seen both teams score in 80% of their recent games; Wieczysta Kraków in 80%.
Last 5 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Legia Warszawa
Early Season
Wieczysta Kraków
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Legia Warszawa and Wieczysta Kraków in coming into this match?
Legia Warszawa have gone 2W 3D 0L in their last 5 games (1.80 PPG), while Wieczysta Kraków have gone 1W 0D 4L in their last 5 (0.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Legia Warszawa at home or Wieczysta Kraków away?
Legia Warszawa's home record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Legia Warszawa at home: 2.33 PPG; Wieczysta Kraków away: 1.00 PPG.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Legia Warszawa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Wieczysta Kraków are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 67% for Legia Warszawa, 67% for Wieczysta Kraków — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Legia Warszawa and 67% for Wieczysta Kraków. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 67% and 67% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Legia Warszawa keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Wieczysta Kraków in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Legia Warszawa home games / Wieczysta Kraków away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Legia Warszawa play Wieczysta Kraków?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Legia Warszawa's games and 67% of Wieczysta Kraków's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Legia Warszawa vs Wieczysta Kraków usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Legia Warszawa's matches and 67% of Wieczysta Kraków's.
Do Legia Warszawa and Wieczysta Kraków tend to score early?
Legia Warszawa have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Wieczysta Kraków in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.