Legia Warszawa vs Wieczysta Kraków – Pre-Match Analysis

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Poisson rates Legia Warszawa at 65% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Legia Warszawa vs Wieczysta Kraków encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis

Wieczysta Kraków make the trip to Stadion Wojska Polskiego to face Legia Warszawa in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 16. The match kicks off on Saturday 28 November 2026 at 17:00 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Legia Warszawa have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 5W 5D 0L. Last five: W D W W D. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Legia Warszawa, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Legia Warszawa's form when playing at home: 6W 4D 0L across 10 games at Stadion Wojska Polskiego this term (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion Wojska Polskiego.

Wieczysta Kraków's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: L D W L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.90. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Wieczysta Kraków, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Wieczysta Kraków have posted 1W 1D 5L from 7 away outings — 0.57 PPG. Away from home they average 1.43 goals scored and 2.29 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 71% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

The points-per-game gap of 1.20 in Legia Warszawa's favour (2.00 vs 0.80) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.

Trading

Legia Warszawa half-time and goal-timing data (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.

Wieczysta Kraków half-time and goal-timing data (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Legia Warszawa 73% and Wieczysta Kraków 73% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Legia Warszawa 36% | Wieczysta Kraków 73%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Legia Warszawa 2.29 xG and Wieczysta Kraków 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Legia Warszawa attack 1.143 / defence 0.741 | Wieczysta Kraków attack 0.965 / defence 1.301. League average goals — home 1.539 / away 1.332. Wieczysta Kraków bring a strong defensive rating of 1.301 — this is suppressing Legia Warszawa's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Legia Warszawa's defence rating of 0.741 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 45 Legia Warszawa games / 11 Wieczysta Kraków games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Legia Warszawa 65% | Draw 24% | Wieczysta Kraków 12%. Fair-value odds: Legia Warszawa 1.54 | Draw 4.17 | Wieczysta Kraków 8.33. The model has a clear lean to Legia Warszawa (65%) — a 53pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.24. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.24 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Legia Warszawa as the most likely outcome at 65% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 3.24 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 63% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Legia Warszawa 50% | Wieczysta Kraków 71% BTTS from recent games.

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