Legia Warszawa 2-1 Widzew Łódź – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Legia Warszawa at 53% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Legia Warszawa face Widzew Łódź.

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Analysis & Preview

Widzew Łódź travel to Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego to take on Legia Warszawa in Ekstraklasa (matchday 14). The game is scheduled for Sunday 3 November 2024 at 19:15 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Legia Warszawa have gone 4W 4D 2L — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: L D D W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

At home, Legia Warszawa have gone 5W 2D 3L in their last 10 home games (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Widzew Łódź — last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W D L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

Widzew Łódź's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 road games (1.50 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Legia Warszawa 1.60 PPG, Widzew Łódź 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Legia Warszawa's games and 80% of Widzew Łódź's (from Legia Warszawa's last 10 home games and Widzew Łódź's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 4 H2H matches, Legia Warszawa have won 2, Widzew Łódź 1, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.0 per game across the 4 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 10 Mar 2024, ended Legia Warszawa 0–1 Widzew Łódź — a Widzew Łódź win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Profile

Legia Warszawa in-play tendencies (last 47 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 56%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).

Widzew Łódź in-play tendencies (last 47 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 79% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Legia Warszawa 57% versus Widzew Łódź 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Legia Warszawa 47% | Widzew Łódź 49%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Legia Warszawa 2.08 xG and Widzew Łódź 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Legia Warszawa attack 1.310 / defence 0.996 | Widzew Łódź attack 1.200 / defence 1.059. League average goals — home 1.503 / away 1.182. Legia Warszawa carry an above-average attack rating of 1.310 — their 2.08 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Data: built from Legia Warszawa's last 47 games and Widzew Łódź's last 47.

Result probabilities: Legia Warszawa 53% | Draw 21% | Widzew Łódź 26%. Fair-value odds: Legia Warszawa 1.89 | Draw 4.74 | Widzew Łódź 3.86. Legia Warszawa hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (21%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS Yes probability 66% | Total xG 3.50. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.50 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% — both xG figures (2.08 / 1.41) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Legia Warszawa are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean.

The Poisson model projects 3.50 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 68% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Legia Warszawa's last 10 home games and Widzew Łódź's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 66% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Legia Warszawa 60% (last 10 home games) | Widzew Łódź 80% (last 10 away games).

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