Legia Warszawa 2-0 Puszcza Niepołomice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Legia Warszawa at 53% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Legia Warszawa vs Puszcza Niepołomice encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Legia Warszawa host Puszcza Niepołomice at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego in Ekstraklasa (matchday 21). Kick-off is Saturday 15 February 2025 at 19:15 UK time.
Form Guide
Legia Warszawa — last 10 games: 5W 3D 2L, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: W D W D L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Legia Warszawa have gone 6W 2D 2L in their last 10 home games (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Puszcza Niepołomice stand at 3W 2D 5L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W W D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Puszcza Niepołomice's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across their last 10 road games (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Legia Warszawa carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.70 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.80 vs 1.10. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, Legia Warszawa have won 0, Puszcza Niepołomice 0, with 3 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 11 Aug 2024, ended Legia Warszawa 2–2 Puszcza Niepołomice — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Legia Warszawa in-play and half-time data (last 54 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games).
Puszcza Niepołomice in-play and half-time data (last 54 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 56% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 56%; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 47%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 26% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Legia Warszawa 59% versus Puszcza Niepołomice 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Legia Warszawa 50% | Puszcza Niepołomice 37%). Note also that Puszcza Niepołomice surrender HT leads in 56% of cases while Legia Warszawa recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 50% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Legia Warszawa 1.57 xG and Puszcza Niepołomice 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Legia Warszawa attack 1.195 / defence 1.037 | Puszcza Niepołomice attack 0.789 / defence 0.916. League average goals — home 1.431 / away 1.106. Puszcza Niepołomice's attack rating of 0.789 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.91. Data: built from Legia Warszawa's last 54 games and Puszcza Niepołomice's last 54.
Result probabilities: Legia Warszawa 53% | Draw 26% | Puszcza Niepołomice 21%. Fair-value odds: Legia Warszawa 1.90 | Draw 3.85 | Puszcza Niepołomice 4.66. Legia Warszawa hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS Yes probability 47% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 53% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Legia Warszawa at 53% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Legia Warszawa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.47 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Legia Warszawa 80% (last 10 home games) | Puszcza Niepołomice 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Legia Warszawa vs Puszcza Niepołomice | Competition: Ekstraklasa, matchday 21 | Venue: Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego • Kick-off: Saturday 15 February 2025 at 19:15 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Legia Warszawa 53% | Draw 26% | Puszcza Niepołomice 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% (Under 55%) | BTTS Yes 47% (No 53%) | xG Legia Warszawa 1.57 / Puszcza Niepołomice 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Legia Warszawa attack 1.195 / def 1.037 | Puszcza Niepołomice attack 0.789 / def 0.916 | league avg home 1.431 / away 1.106 • Poisson stance: Legia Warszawa (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
Legia Warszawa xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Puszcza Niepołomice xG
47%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Legia Warszawa vs Puszcza Niepołomice FAQs
What time does Legia Warszawa vs Puszcza Niepołomice kick off?
Legia Warszawa vs Puszcza Niepołomice kicked off at 19:15 UK time on Saturday 15 February 2025 at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What was the final score in Legia Warszawa vs Puszcza Niepołomice?
Legia Warszawa 2 - 0 Puszcza Niepołomice.
Where is Legia Warszawa vs Puszcza Niepołomice being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What competition is Legia Warszawa vs Puszcza Niepołomice part of?
Legia Warszawa vs Puszcza Niepołomice is a Ekstraklasa fixture (matchday 21) (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Legia Warszawa vs Puszcza Niepołomice?
Our statistical model gives Legia Warszawa a 53% chance of winning, Puszcza Niepołomice a 21% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Legia Warszawa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Legia Warszawa vs Puszcza Niepołomice?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Legia Warszawa and Puszcza Niepołomice will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (53%).
Will Legia Warszawa vs Puszcza Niepołomice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (55%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Legia Warszawa's attack rating (1.20) and Puszcza Niepołomice's defence rating (0.92), the model arrives at 1.57 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Puszcza Niepołomice's attack versus Legia Warszawa's defence, projects 0.91 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Legia Warszawa's last 54 games and Puszcza Niepołomice's last 54 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.7%), 2-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Legia Warszawa Win
53%
1.90
26%
3.85
21%
4.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
2 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
Legia Warszawa xG
Total xG
2.47
0.91
Puszcza Niepołomice xG
1.90
53%
Home win
3.85
26%
Draw
4.66
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
40%
2.47
21%
4.79
Win to Nil
21%
4.70
4%
22.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 7.6 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.2 | 12.0 | 5.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.4 | 9.4 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Legia Warszawa vs Puszcza Niepołomice Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Legia Warszawa vs Puszcza Niepołomice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Legia Warszawa and Puszcza Niepołomice expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Legia Warszawa and 0.91 for Puszcza Niepołomice, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Legia Warszawa vs Puszcza Niepołomice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 54 outings, Legia Warszawa have picked up 1.70 PPG on a 25W 17D 12L record — W-D-W-D-L across the most recent five.
Puszcza Niepołomice's form line: 13W 20D 21L from 54 games, 1.09 PPG, last five W-W-D-D-L.
Put side by side, Legia Warszawa are the form team by 0.61 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Puszcza Niepołomice.
Venue Form
On home soil, Legia Warszawa have posted 1.85 PPG from their last 27 home games (14W 8D 5L).
On the road, Puszcza Niepołomice have gone 3W 8D 16L from their last 27 away games — 0.63 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.09 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Puszcza Niepołomice's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Legia Warszawa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Legia Warszawa are averaging 1.63 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Puszcza Niepołomice are on 1.07 scored and 1.44 conceded.
Last 54 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Legia Warszawa
Blended
Puszcza Niepołomice
Blended
Legia Warszawa (Home) vs Puszcza Niepołomice (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Legia Warszawa
Blended
Puszcza Niepołomice
Blended
❓ Legia Warszawa vs Puszcza Niepołomice Form FAQs
What form are Legia Warszawa and Puszcza Niepołomice in coming into this match?
Legia Warszawa have gone 25W 17D 12L in their last 54 games (1.70 PPG), while Puszcza Niepołomice have gone 13W 20D 21L in their last 54 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Legia Warszawa at home or Puszcza Niepołomice away?
Legia Warszawa's home record (1.85 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Legia Warszawa at home: 1.85 PPG; Puszcza Niepołomice away: 0.63 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 4 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from August 2023. All of them came in Ekstraklasa. The most recent in our data was on 15 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Legia Warszawa's record when hosting Puszcza Niepołomice specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Legia Warszawa
3
Draws
0
Puszcza Niepołomice
Recent Meetings
❓ Legia Warszawa vs Puszcza Niepołomice H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Legia Warszawa and Puszcza Niepołomice?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Legia Warszawa have won 1, Puszcza Niepołomice have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Legia Warszawa and Puszcza Niepołomice last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 15 February 2025: Legia Warszawa 2-0 Puszcza Niepołomice.
Who has won more matches between Legia Warszawa and Puszcza Niepołomice?
Legia Warszawa have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Legia Warszawa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Puszcza Niepołomice see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Legia Warszawa 67%, Puszcza Niepołomice 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Legia Warszawa) and 26% (Puszcza Niepołomice).
On the defensive side: Puszcza Niepołomice in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Legia Warszawa home games / Puszcza Niepołomice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Legia Warszawa vs Puszcza Niepołomice Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Legia Warszawa and Puszcza Niepołomice matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Legia Warszawa's games and 44% of Puszcza Niepołomice's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Legia Warszawa and Puszcza Niepołomice matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of Legia Warszawa's recent games and 26% of Puszcza Niepołomice's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Legia Warszawa and Puszcza Niepołomice matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 78% of Legia Warszawa's recent matches and 56% of Puszcza Niepołomice's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Legia Warszawa cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Puszcza Niepołomice.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Legia Warszawa beat Puszcza Niepołomice 2-0 at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego, Regular Season - 21, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Legia Warszawa 1.57 xG and Puszcza Niepołomice 0.91 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Puszcza Niepołomice landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Legia Warszawa attack 1.20 / defence 1.04 against Puszcza Niepołomice attack 0.79 / defence 0.92, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Legia Warszawa 53% | Draw 26% | Puszcza Niepołomice 21%, with Legia Warszawa to win its most likely call at 53%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Legia Warszawa 50%, Puszcza Niepołomice 37%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Legia Warszawa's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Puszcza Niepołomice's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Legia Warszawa arrived the stronger side — 1.70 PPG against 1.09. That form edge translated into the three points. Legia Warszawa (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.07 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.