Legia Warszawa 2-0 Piast Gliwice – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Legia Warszawa at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Legia Warszawa vs Piast Gliwice fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Piast Gliwice make the trip to Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego to face Legia Warszawa in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 4. The match kicks off on Friday 5 August 2022 at 19:30 UTC.
Form
Legia Warszawa (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D W D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Legia Warszawa have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Legia Warszawa at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego this season: 7W 0D 3L from 10 home games — 2.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Legia Warszawa are significantly better at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego than their overall form suggests.
Piast Gliwice's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: L W D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Piast Gliwice have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Piast Gliwice's away record: 6W 3D 1L from 10 road trips in Ekstraklasa this season (2.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
On a straight form reading, Piast Gliwice are the stronger side — 0.50 PPG clear of the hosts (1.70 vs 1.20). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Legia Warszawa 0W, Piast Gliwice 2W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 18 Apr 2022, ended 0–1 with Piast Gliwice winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Legia Warszawa goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (36 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
Piast Gliwice goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (36 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Legia Warszawa 50% versus Piast Gliwice 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Legia Warszawa 53% | Piast Gliwice 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Legia Warszawa 1.61 xG and Piast Gliwice 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Legia Warszawa attack 1.242 / defence 0.856 | Piast Gliwice attack 0.929 / defence 0.970. League average goals — home 1.334 / away 1.224. Data: 37 Legia Warszawa games / 36 Piast Gliwice games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Legia Warszawa 51% | Draw 27% | Piast Gliwice 22%. Fair-value odds: Legia Warszawa 1.96 | Draw 3.70 | Piast Gliwice 4.55. Legia Warszawa hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Legia Warszawa as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Piast Gliwice (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Legia Warszawa if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.58 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Legia Warszawa 40% | Piast Gliwice 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (36 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Legia Warszawa vs Piast Gliwice | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego • Kick-off: Friday 5 Aug 2022, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Legia Warszawa 51% | Draw 27% | Piast Gliwice 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 51% | xG Legia Warszawa 1.61 / Piast Gliwice 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Legia Warszawa attack 1.242 / def 0.856 | Piast Gliwice attack 0.929 / def 0.970 | league avg home 1.334 / away 1.224 • Poisson stance: Legia Warszawa (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
Legia Warszawa xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Piast Gliwice xG
51%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Legia Warszawa vs Piast Gliwice kick off?
Legia Warszawa vs Piast Gliwice kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 5 August 2022 at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What was the final score in Legia Warszawa vs Piast Gliwice?
Legia Warszawa 2 - 0 Piast Gliwice.
Where is Legia Warszawa vs Piast Gliwice being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What competition is Legia Warszawa vs Piast Gliwice part of?
Legia Warszawa vs Piast Gliwice is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Legia Warszawa vs Piast Gliwice?
Our statistical model gives Legia Warszawa a 51% chance of winning, Piast Gliwice a 22% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Legia Warszawa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Legia Warszawa vs Piast Gliwice?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Legia Warszawa and Piast Gliwice will score (BTTS).
Will Legia Warszawa vs Piast Gliwice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Legia Warszawa and Piast Gliwice?
Record (2 meetings): Legia Warszawa 0W | Draws 0 | Piast Gliwice 2W.
What form are Legia Warszawa and Piast Gliwice in?
Legia Warszawa (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-D-W-L. Piast Gliwice (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Legia Warszawa's attack rating (1.24) and Piast Gliwice's defence rating (0.97), the model arrives at 1.61 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Piast Gliwice's attack (0.93x) against Legia Warszawa's defence (0.86x) — and the away total comes out at 0.97.
The sample (37/36 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.6%), 2-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Legia Warszawa Win
51%
1.95
27%
3.76
22%
4.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
2 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
Legia Warszawa xG
Total xG
2.58
0.97
Piast Gliwice xG
1.95
51%
Home win
3.76
27%
Draw
4.53
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.98
49%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
38%
2.65
20%
4.99
Win to Nil
19%
5.16
4%
22.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 7.4 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 11.8 | 5.8 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 9.5 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 5.1 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Legia Warszawa vs Piast Gliwice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Legia Warszawa and Piast Gliwice expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Legia Warszawa and 0.97 for Piast Gliwice, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Legia Warszawa vs Piast Gliwice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Legia Warszawa's recent record stands at 13W 5D 18L from 36 games, a 1.22 PPG return, with D-W-D-W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Legia Warszawa, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Piast Gliwice, meanwhile, have gone 15W 9D 12L across 36 games — 1.50 PPG, with L-W-D-L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Piast Gliwice, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.22 PPG for Legia Warszawa against 1.50 for Piast Gliwice. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Legia Warszawa have managed 10W 0D 7L from 17 games — 1.76 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.22 PPG overall — Legia Warszawa are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Piast Gliwice's away record stands at 7W 5D 5L across 17 trips, a 1.53 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Legia Warszawa are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Piast Gliwice are on 1.25 scored and 1.11 conceded.
Last 36 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Legia Warszawa
Early Season
Piast Gliwice
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Legia Warszawa and Piast Gliwice in coming into this match?
Legia Warszawa have gone 13W 5D 18L in their last 36 games (1.22 PPG), while Piast Gliwice have gone 15W 9D 12L in their last 36 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Legia Warszawa at home or Piast Gliwice away?
Legia Warszawa's home record (1.76 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Legia Warszawa at home: 1.76 PPG; Piast Gliwice away: 1.53 PPG.
Have Legia Warszawa or Piast Gliwice been keeping clean sheets recently?
Legia Warszawa have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Piast Gliwice in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 14 December 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Piast Gliwice have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Piast Gliwice won 4-1 on 24 Oct 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Legia Warszawa have gone 2W 0D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Piast Gliwice — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Legia Warszawa
1
Draws
6
Piast Gliwice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Legia Warszawa and Piast Gliwice?
From 10 meetings on record, Legia Warszawa have won 3, Piast Gliwice have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Legia Warszawa and Piast Gliwice last play each other?
They last met on 14 December 2025, when Legia Warszawa 0-1 Piast Gliwice.
Who has won more matches between Legia Warszawa and Piast Gliwice?
Piast Gliwice have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Legia Warszawa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Piast Gliwice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Legia Warszawa 41%, Piast Gliwice 35% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Legia Warszawa) and 29% (Piast Gliwice).
On the defensive side: Piast Gliwice in 35%; Legia Warszawa have failed to score in 29% of games; Piast Gliwice in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Legia Warszawa home games / Piast Gliwice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Legia Warszawa play Piast Gliwice?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Legia Warszawa's recent matches and 35% of Piast Gliwice's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Legia Warszawa vs Piast Gliwice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of Legia Warszawa's recent games and 29% of Piast Gliwice's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Legia Warszawa and Piast Gliwice tend to score early?
Legia Warszawa have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Piast Gliwice in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Legia Warszawa cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Piast Gliwice.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Legia Warszawa beat Piast Gliwice 2-0 at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego, Regular Season - 4, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Legia Warszawa 1.61 xG and Piast Gliwice 0.97 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Piast Gliwice landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Legia Warszawa attack 1.24 / defence 0.86 against Piast Gliwice attack 0.93 / defence 0.97, drawn from 37/36 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Legia Warszawa 51% | Draw 27% | Piast Gliwice 22%, with Legia Warszawa to win its most likely call at 51%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Legia Warszawa 53%, Piast Gliwice 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Legia Warszawa's trading profile (36 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Piast Gliwice's trading profile (36 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Legia Warszawa 1.22 PPG, Piast Gliwice 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Legia Warszawa win broke the near-deadlock. Legia Warszawa (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.24 average — tighter than their form line. Piast Gliwice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.18 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.