Lechia Gdansk 1-3 Zaglebie Lubin – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Zaglebie Lubin at 37% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lechia Gdansk vs Zaglebie Lubin encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Lechia Gdansk and Zaglebie Lubin meet at Polsat Plus Arena Gdańsk in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 31. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 6 May 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Lechia Gdansk's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 1W 1D 8L from 10 games (0.40 PPG). Last five: D L L L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
In front of their own supporters this season, Lechia Gdansk have posted 4W 2D 4L at Polsat Plus Arena Gdańsk — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Polsat Plus Arena Gdańsk. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.40 — Lechia Gdansk are significantly better at Polsat Plus Arena Gdańsk than their overall form suggests.
Zaglebie Lubin have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: D L L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Zaglebie Lubin away from home this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Zaglebie Lubin are 1.10 PPG clear of Lechia Gdansk in recent Ekstraklasa fixtures (1.50 vs 0.40). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Lechia Gdansk lead 2W to 0W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.3 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 24 Oct 2022, ended 3–0 with Lechia Gdansk winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Lechia Gdansk — key trading statistics (64 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Zaglebie Lubin — key trading statistics (64 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lechia Gdansk 44% versus Zaglebie Lubin 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lechia Gdansk 52% | Zaglebie Lubin 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lechia Gdansk 1.18 xG and Zaglebie Lubin 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lechia Gdansk attack 0.822 / defence 1.061 | Zaglebie Lubin attack 1.174 / defence 1.102. League average goals — home 1.306 / away 1.014. Data: 64 Lechia Gdansk games / 64 Zaglebie Lubin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lechia Gdansk 33% | Draw 30% | Zaglebie Lubin 37%. Fair-value odds: Lechia Gdansk 3.03 | Draw 3.33 | Zaglebie Lubin 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
Lechia Gdansk dominate the H2H record, yet Zaglebie Lubin are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
On the Poisson output, Zaglebie Lubin are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Zaglebie Lubin if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.45 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Lechia Gdansk 40% | Zaglebie Lubin 50%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lechia Gdansk vs Zaglebie Lubin | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Polsat Plus Arena Gdańsk • Kick-off: Saturday 6 May 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lechia Gdansk 33% | Draw 30% | Zaglebie Lubin 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 51% | xG Lechia Gdansk 1.18 / Zaglebie Lubin 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Lechia Gdansk attack 0.822 / def 1.061 | Zaglebie Lubin attack 1.174 / def 1.102 | league avg home 1.306 / away 1.014 • Poisson stance: Zaglebie Lubin (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Lechia Gdansk xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Zaglebie Lubin xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lechia Gdansk vs Zaglebie Lubin kick off?
Lechia Gdansk vs Zaglebie Lubin kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 6 May 2023 at Polsat Plus Arena Gdańsk.
What was the final score in Lechia Gdansk vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Lechia Gdansk 1 - 3 Zaglebie Lubin.
Where is Lechia Gdansk vs Zaglebie Lubin being played?
The match is being played at Polsat Plus Arena Gdańsk.
What competition is Lechia Gdansk vs Zaglebie Lubin part of?
Lechia Gdansk vs Zaglebie Lubin is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Lechia Gdansk vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Our statistical model gives Lechia Gdansk a 33% chance of winning, Zaglebie Lubin a 37% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Zaglebie Lubin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lechia Gdansk vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Lechia Gdansk and Zaglebie Lubin will score (BTTS).
Will Lechia Gdansk vs Zaglebie Lubin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lechia Gdansk and Zaglebie Lubin?
Record (3 meetings): Lechia Gdansk 2W | Draws 1 | Zaglebie Lubin 0W.
What form are Lechia Gdansk and Zaglebie Lubin in?
Lechia Gdansk (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-L-L-L. Zaglebie Lubin (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Lechia Gdansk's attacking strength (0.82x league average) is weighed against Zaglebie Lubin's defensive record (1.10x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.18. Flip it around — Zaglebie Lubin's attack (1.17x) against Lechia Gdansk's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.26.
These ratings are built from 64/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.4%), 0-1 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Zaglebie Lubin Win
33%
3.03
30%
3.31
37%
2.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Lechia Gdansk xG
Total xG
2.45
1.26
Zaglebie Lubin xG
3.03
33%
Home win
3.31
30%
Draw
2.72
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
28%
3.53
31%
3.26
Win to Nil
9%
10.70
11%
8.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 10.9 | 6.9 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 12.9 | 8.2 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 7.7 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.0 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lechia Gdansk vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Lechia Gdansk and Zaglebie Lubin expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Lechia Gdansk and 1.26 for Zaglebie Lubin, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Lechia Gdansk vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 64 outings, Lechia Gdansk have picked up 1.30 PPG on a 23W 14D 27L record — D-L-L-L-L across the most recent five.
Zaglebie Lubin's form line: 20W 13D 31L from 64 games, 1.14 PPG, last five D-L-L-D-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.30 PPG for Lechia Gdansk against 1.14 for Zaglebie Lubin. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Lechia Gdansk have posted 1.71 PPG from 31 outings (15W 8D 8L). That's noticeably better than their 1.30 PPG overall — Lechia Gdansk are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Zaglebie Lubin have gone 10W 5D 16L from 31 away games — 1.13 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lechia Gdansk come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Lechia Gdansk are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Zaglebie Lubin are on 1.11 scored and 1.58 conceded.
Last 64 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lechia Gdansk
Current Season
Zaglebie Lubin
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lechia Gdansk and Zaglebie Lubin in coming into this match?
Lechia Gdansk have gone 23W 14D 27L in their last 64 games (1.30 PPG), while Zaglebie Lubin have gone 20W 13D 31L in their last 64 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lechia Gdansk at home or Zaglebie Lubin away?
Lechia Gdansk's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lechia Gdansk at home: 1.71 PPG; Zaglebie Lubin away: 1.13 PPG.
Have Lechia Gdansk or Zaglebie Lubin been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lechia Gdansk have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Zaglebie Lubin in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 23 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Zaglebie Lubin have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Zaglebie Lubin won 6-2 on 15 Aug 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lechia Gdansk have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Zaglebie Lubin — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Lechia Gdansk
2
Draws
3
Zaglebie Lubin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lechia Gdansk and Zaglebie Lubin?
From 8 meetings on record, Lechia Gdansk have won 3, Zaglebie Lubin have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Lechia Gdansk and Zaglebie Lubin last play each other?
They last met on 23 February 2026, when Lechia Gdansk 0-2 Zaglebie Lubin.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Lechia Gdansk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Zaglebie Lubin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lechia Gdansk 42%, Zaglebie Lubin 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Lechia Gdansk) and 64% (Zaglebie Lubin). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 26% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Lechia Gdansk keep a clean sheet in 45% of their matches; Lechia Gdansk have failed to score in 26% of games; Zaglebie Lubin in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lechia Gdansk home games / Zaglebie Lubin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lechia Gdansk play Zaglebie Lubin?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Lechia Gdansk's recent matches and 39% of Zaglebie Lubin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lechia Gdansk vs Zaglebie Lubin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 48% of Lechia Gdansk's matches and 64% of Zaglebie Lubin's.
Do Lechia Gdansk and Zaglebie Lubin tend to score early?
Lechia Gdansk have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Zaglebie Lubin in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Zaglebie Lubin cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Lechia Gdansk.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Zaglebie Lubin beat Lechia Gdansk 1-3 at Polsat Plus Arena Gdańsk, Regular Season - 31, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lechia Gdansk 1.18 xG and Zaglebie Lubin 1.26 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Zaglebie Lubin outscored their 1.26 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lechia Gdansk attack 0.82 / defence 1.06 against Zaglebie Lubin attack 1.17 / defence 1.10, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lechia Gdansk 33% | Draw 30% | Zaglebie Lubin 37%, with Zaglebie Lubin to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lechia Gdansk 52%, Zaglebie Lubin 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lechia Gdansk's trading profile (64 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Zaglebie Lubin's trading profile (64 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lechia Gdansk 1.30 PPG, Zaglebie Lubin 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Zaglebie Lubin win broke the near-deadlock. Lechia Gdansk (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.97 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Zaglebie Lubin (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.13 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.