Lechia Gdansk 2-0 Slask Wroclaw – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Lechia Gdansk at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lechia Gdansk vs Slask Wroclaw encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion Energa Gdańsk plays host to Lechia Gdansk versus Slask Wroclaw in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off: Saturday 5 February 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Lechia Gdansk have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: D L W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Lechia Gdansk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadion Energa Gdańsk, Lechia Gdansk have gone 6W 2D 1L this season (9 games, 2.22 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.89 goals scored and 0.89 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.22 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Lechia Gdansk are significantly better at Stadion Energa Gdańsk than their overall form suggests.
Slask Wroclaw (all games): 2W 1D 7L across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this term — 0.70 points per game. Last five: L W L L L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 2.20. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Slask Wroclaw, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Slask Wroclaw's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in Ekstraklasa this season (1.10 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The points-per-game gap of 1.00 in Lechia Gdansk's favour (1.70 vs 0.70) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Lechia Gdansk have seen both teams score in 67% of their games, Slask Wroclaw in 80%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Lechia Gdansk 0W, Slask Wroclaw 0W, 1D.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Aug 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Lechia Gdansk half-time and goal-timing data (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Slask Wroclaw half-time and goal-timing data (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Lechia Gdansk 58% and Slask Wroclaw 74% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lechia Gdansk 53% | Slask Wroclaw 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lechia Gdansk 1.82 xG and Slask Wroclaw 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lechia Gdansk attack 1.068 / defence 1.109 | Slask Wroclaw attack 1.026 / defence 1.419. League average goals — home 1.202 / away 1.238. Slask Wroclaw bring a strong defensive rating of 1.419 — this is suppressing Lechia Gdansk's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 19 Lechia Gdansk games / 19 Slask Wroclaw games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lechia Gdansk 47% | Draw 23% | Slask Wroclaw 30%. Fair-value odds: Lechia Gdansk 2.13 | Draw 4.35 | Slask Wroclaw 3.33. Lechia Gdansk hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.23. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.23 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.82 / 1.41) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lechia Gdansk at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lechia Gdansk if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.23 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 63% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Lechia Gdansk 67% | Slask Wroclaw 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lechia Gdansk vs Slask Wroclaw | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Stadion Energa Gdańsk • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Feb 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lechia Gdansk 47% | Draw 23% | Slask Wroclaw 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 63% | xG Lechia Gdansk 1.82 / Slask Wroclaw 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: Lechia Gdansk attack 1.068 / def 1.109 | Slask Wroclaw attack 1.026 / def 1.419 | league avg home 1.202 / away 1.238 • Poisson stance: Lechia Gdansk (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.82
Lechia Gdansk xG
Expected Goals
1.41
Slask Wroclaw xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lechia Gdansk vs Slask Wroclaw kick off?
Lechia Gdansk vs Slask Wroclaw kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 5 February 2022 at Stadion Energa Gdańsk.
What was the final score in Lechia Gdansk vs Slask Wroclaw?
Lechia Gdansk 2 - 0 Slask Wroclaw.
Where is Lechia Gdansk vs Slask Wroclaw being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Energa Gdańsk.
What competition is Lechia Gdansk vs Slask Wroclaw part of?
Lechia Gdansk vs Slask Wroclaw is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Lechia Gdansk vs Slask Wroclaw?
Our statistical model gives Lechia Gdansk a 47% chance of winning, Slask Wroclaw a 30% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Lechia Gdansk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lechia Gdansk vs Slask Wroclaw?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Lechia Gdansk and Slask Wroclaw will score (BTTS).
Will Lechia Gdansk vs Slask Wroclaw have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lechia Gdansk and Slask Wroclaw?
Record (1 meetings): Lechia Gdansk 0W | Draws 1 | Slask Wroclaw 0W.
What form are Lechia Gdansk and Slask Wroclaw in?
Lechia Gdansk (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-W-L-L. Slask Wroclaw (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Lechia Gdansk's attack at 1.07x the league average against Slask Wroclaw's defence at 1.42x — combine the two and it projects 1.82 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Slask Wroclaw's attack (1.03x) against Lechia Gdansk's defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 1.41.
These ratings are built from 19/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-2 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Lechia Gdansk Win
47%
2.11
23%
4.39
30%
3.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
1 – 0
7.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.82
Lechia Gdansk xG
Total xG
3.23
1.41
Slask Wroclaw xG
2.11
47%
Home win
4.39
23%
Draw
3.35
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.73
Clean Sheet
24%
4.09
16%
6.18
Win to Nil
12%
8.64
5%
20.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 5.6 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 10.1 | 7.1 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 9.2 | 6.5 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 5.6 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lechia Gdansk vs Slask Wroclaw?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Lechia Gdansk and Slask Wroclaw expected to score?
The model projects 1.82 expected goals for Lechia Gdansk and 1.41 for Slask Wroclaw, a combined total of 3.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Lechia Gdansk vs Slask Wroclaw?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Lechia Gdansk's recent record stands at 9W 6D 4L from 19 games, a 1.74 PPG return, with D-L-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for Lechia Gdansk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Slask Wroclaw, meanwhile, have gone 6W 6D 7L across 19 games — 1.26 PPG, with L-W-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Slask Wroclaw is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Lechia Gdansk by 0.48 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Slask Wroclaw heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Lechia Gdansk have managed 6W 2D 1L from 9 games — 2.22 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.74 PPG overall — Lechia Gdansk are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Slask Wroclaw's away record stands at 2W 2D 5L across 9 trips, a 0.89 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lechia Gdansk come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Lechia Gdansk are averaging 1.74 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Slask Wroclaw are on 1.58 scored and 1.58 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Slask Wroclaw in 74%.
Last 19 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lechia Gdansk
Blended
Slask Wroclaw
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lechia Gdansk and Slask Wroclaw in coming into this match?
Lechia Gdansk have gone 9W 6D 4L in their last 19 games (1.74 PPG), while Slask Wroclaw have gone 6W 6D 7L in their last 19 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lechia Gdansk at home or Slask Wroclaw away?
Lechia Gdansk's home record (2.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lechia Gdansk at home: 2.22 PPG; Slask Wroclaw away: 0.89 PPG.
Have Lechia Gdansk or Slask Wroclaw been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lechia Gdansk have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Slask Wroclaw in 16%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 December 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lechia Gdansk have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Slask Wroclaw — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Lechia Gdansk
3
Draws
1
Slask Wroclaw
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lechia Gdansk and Slask Wroclaw?
From 6 meetings on record, Lechia Gdansk have won 2, Slask Wroclaw have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Lechia Gdansk and Slask Wroclaw last play each other?
They last met on 7 December 2024, when Lechia Gdansk 1-0 Slask Wroclaw.
Who has won more matches between Lechia Gdansk and Slask Wroclaw?
Lechia Gdansk have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Lechia Gdansk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Slask Wroclaw are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 67% for Lechia Gdansk, 78% for Slask Wroclaw — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Lechia Gdansk and 78% for Slask Wroclaw. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 56% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Lechia Gdansk keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lechia Gdansk home games / Slask Wroclaw away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lechia Gdansk play Slask Wroclaw?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Lechia Gdansk's games and 78% of Slask Wroclaw's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lechia Gdansk vs Slask Wroclaw usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Lechia Gdansk's matches and 78% of Slask Wroclaw's.
Do Lechia Gdansk and Slask Wroclaw tend to score early?
Lechia Gdansk have had a goal before half-time in 89% of their recent matches, Slask Wroclaw in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lechia Gdansk cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Slask Wroclaw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lechia Gdansk beat Slask Wroclaw 2-0 at Stadion Energa Gdańsk, Regular Season - 20, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lechia Gdansk 1.82 xG and Slask Wroclaw 1.41 xG, a combined 3.23. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Slask Wroclaw landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lechia Gdansk attack 1.07 / defence 1.11 against Slask Wroclaw attack 1.03 / defence 1.42, drawn from 19/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lechia Gdansk 47% | Draw 23% | Slask Wroclaw 30%, with Lechia Gdansk to win its most likely call at 47%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lechia Gdansk 53%, Slask Wroclaw 68%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lechia Gdansk's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Slask Wroclaw's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 74% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Lechia Gdansk arrived the stronger side — 1.74 PPG against 1.26. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Lechia Gdansk (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.89 average — tighter than their form line. Slask Wroclaw (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.78 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.