Lechia Gdansk 0-3 Pogon Szczecin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Pogon Szczecin at 36% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lechia Gdansk vs Pogon Szczecin encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Lechia Gdansk host Pogon Szczecin at Polsat Plus Arena Gdańsk in Ekstraklasa (matchday 16). Kick-off is Saturday 23 November 2024 at 13:45 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Lechia Gdansk stand at 2W 3D 5L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L D L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Lechia Gdansk at home: 1W 2D 4L from their last 7 home games — 0.71 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.71 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 57% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Pogon Szczecin — last 10 games: 4W 0D 6L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Pogon Szczecin away from home: 0W 3D 7L from their last 10 away games — 0.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Lechia Gdansk 0.90 PPG, Pogon Szczecin 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
Despite the home advantage, Pogon Szczecin have the better record in our head-to-head data — 3 wins from 4 H2H matches against 0 for Lechia Gdansk.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 15 Apr 2023, ended Lechia Gdansk 0–1 Pogon Szczecin — a Pogon Szczecin win.
Pogon Szczecin have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 3 wins from 4 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.
In-Play Data
Lechia Gdansk trading profile (last 15 games, 7 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 29% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 75%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games).
Pogon Szczecin trading profile (last 15 games, 7 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 57% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lechia Gdansk 73% versus Pogon Szczecin 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lechia Gdansk 53% | Pogon Szczecin 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lechia Gdansk 1.20 xG and Pogon Szczecin 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lechia Gdansk attack 0.655 / defence 1.127 | Pogon Szczecin attack 0.872 / defence 1.214. League average goals — home 1.507 / away 1.223. Lechia Gdansk's attack rating of 0.655 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.20. Pogon Szczecin's defence rating of 1.214 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Lechia Gdansk's projected output up. Data: built from Lechia Gdansk's last 15 games and Pogon Szczecin's last 49.
Result probabilities: Lechia Gdansk 36% | Draw 28% | Pogon Szczecin 36%. Fair-value odds: Lechia Gdansk 2.77 | Draw 3.62 | Pogon Szczecin 2.76. The model can't separate the sides — both are rated at 36% to win, with the draw at 28%. There is no result lean here.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model can't separate the sides — Lechia Gdansk 36% and Pogon Szczecin 36%, with the draw at 28%. There is no result lean from the model; the goals and BTTS markets below are where it has a view.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.40 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Lechia Gdansk 57% (last 7 home games) | Pogon Szczecin 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lechia Gdansk vs Pogon Szczecin | Competition: Ekstraklasa, matchday 16 | Venue: Polsat Plus Arena Gdańsk • Kick-off: Saturday 23 November 2024 at 13:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lechia Gdansk 36% | Draw 28% | Pogon Szczecin 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% (Under 57%) | BTTS Yes 49% (No 51%) | xG Lechia Gdansk 1.20 / Pogon Szczecin 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Lechia Gdansk attack 0.655 / def 1.127 | Pogon Szczecin attack 0.872 / def 1.214 | league avg home 1.507 / away 1.223 • Poisson stance: no clear lean — Lechia Gdansk and Pogon Szczecin level at 36% — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Lechia Gdansk xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Pogon Szczecin xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Lechia Gdansk vs Pogon Szczecin FAQs
What time does Lechia Gdansk vs Pogon Szczecin kick off?
Lechia Gdansk vs Pogon Szczecin kicked off at 13:45 UK time on Saturday 23 November 2024 at Polsat Plus Arena Gdańsk.
What was the final score in Lechia Gdansk vs Pogon Szczecin?
Lechia Gdansk 0 - 3 Pogon Szczecin.
Where is Lechia Gdansk vs Pogon Szczecin being played?
The match is being played at Polsat Plus Arena Gdańsk.
What competition is Lechia Gdansk vs Pogon Szczecin part of?
Lechia Gdansk vs Pogon Szczecin is a Ekstraklasa fixture (matchday 16) (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Lechia Gdansk vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our statistical model gives Lechia Gdansk a 36% chance of winning, Pogon Szczecin a 36% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Lechia Gdansk vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Lechia Gdansk and Pogon Szczecin will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (51%).
Will Lechia Gdansk vs Pogon Szczecin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (57%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Lechia Gdansk's attacking strength (0.66x league average) is weighed against Pogon Szczecin's defensive record (1.21x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.20. The same calculation in reverse, Pogon Szczecin's attack versus Lechia Gdansk's defence, projects 1.20 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Lechia Gdansk's last 15 games and Pogon Szczecin's last 49 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.8%), 0-1 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pogon Szczecin Win
36%
2.77
28%
3.62
36%
2.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Lechia Gdansk xG
Total xG
2.40
1.20
Pogon Szczecin xG
2.77
36%
Home win
3.62
28%
Draw
2.76
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
30%
3.33
30%
3.32
Win to Nil
11%
9.23
11%
9.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 10.9 | 6.6 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 13.1 | 7.9 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 7.8 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.1 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Lechia Gdansk vs Pogon Szczecin Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Lechia Gdansk vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Lechia Gdansk and Pogon Szczecin expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Lechia Gdansk and 1.20 for Pogon Szczecin, a combined total of 2.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Lechia Gdansk vs Pogon Szczecin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Lechia Gdansk come into this having played 15 games, going 2W 5D 8L for 0.73 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-L-D.
On the other side, Pogon Szczecin sit at 1.47 PPG from 15 outings (7W 1D 7L), a run that reads W-L-W-L-L across their last five.
Pogon Szczecin carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.74 PPG clear of Lechia Gdansk — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Lechia Gdansk's home form reads 1W 2D 4L across their last 7 home games, a 0.71 PPG return.
Away from home, Pogon Szczecin have taken 0.14 points per game from their last 7 away games (0W 1D 6L). That's a step down from their 1.47 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Pogon Szczecin's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lechia Gdansk come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Lechia Gdansk are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.87 conceded per game recently; Pogon Szczecin are on 1.40 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lechia Gdansk have seen both teams score in 73% of their recent games.
Last 15 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lechia Gdansk
Blended
Pogon Szczecin
Blended
Lechia Gdansk (Home) vs Pogon Szczecin (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Lechia Gdansk
Blended
Pogon Szczecin
Blended
❓ Lechia Gdansk vs Pogon Szczecin Form FAQs
What form are Lechia Gdansk and Pogon Szczecin in coming into this match?
Lechia Gdansk have gone 2W 5D 8L in their last 15 games (0.73 PPG), while Pogon Szczecin have gone 7W 1D 7L in their last 15 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lechia Gdansk at home or Pogon Szczecin away?
Lechia Gdansk's home record (0.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lechia Gdansk at home: 0.71 PPG; Pogon Szczecin away: 0.14 PPG.
Have Lechia Gdansk or Pogon Szczecin been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lechia Gdansk have kept a clean sheet in 13% of their recent games, Pogon Szczecin in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 8 H2H matches in our data, going back to November 2021. All of them came in Ekstraklasa. The most recent was on 21 March 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Lechia Gdansk have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 27 Nov 2021, when Pogon Szczecin won Pogon Szczecin 5-1 Lechia Gdansk.
Lechia Gdansk's record when hosting Pogon Szczecin specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Lechia Gdansk
2
Draws
4
Pogon Szczecin
Recent Meetings
❓ Lechia Gdansk vs Pogon Szczecin H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Lechia Gdansk and Pogon Szczecin?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Lechia Gdansk have won 2, Pogon Szczecin have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Lechia Gdansk and Pogon Szczecin last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 21 March 2026: Lechia Gdansk 2-1 Pogon Szczecin.
Who has won more matches between Lechia Gdansk and Pogon Szczecin?
Pogon Szczecin have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Lechia Gdansk's games tend to start slowly — only 29% have a goal by half-time.
Pogon Szczecin see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lechia Gdansk 57%, Pogon Szczecin 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 29% (Lechia Gdansk) and 57% (Pogon Szczecin).
On the defensive side: Lechia Gdansk have failed to score in 29% of games; Pogon Szczecin in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lechia Gdansk home games / Pogon Szczecin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Lechia Gdansk vs Pogon Szczecin Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Lechia Gdansk and Pogon Szczecin matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Lechia Gdansk's games and 57% of Pogon Szczecin's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Lechia Gdansk and Pogon Szczecin matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Lechia Gdansk's recent games and 57% of Pogon Szczecin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lechia Gdansk and Pogon Szczecin matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 29% of Lechia Gdansk's recent matches and 57% of Pogon Szczecin's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Pogon Szczecin run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Lechia Gdansk.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pogon Szczecin beat Lechia Gdansk 0-3 at Polsat Plus Arena Gdańsk, Regular Season - 16, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lechia Gdansk 1.20 xG and Pogon Szczecin 1.20 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Lechia Gdansk fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Pogon Szczecin outscored their 1.20 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lechia Gdansk attack 0.66 / defence 1.13 against Pogon Szczecin attack 0.87 / defence 1.21, drawn from 15/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lechia Gdansk 36% | Draw 28% | Pogon Szczecin 36%, with Lechia Gdansk to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Pogon Szczecin win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lechia Gdansk 53%, Pogon Szczecin 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lechia Gdansk's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did not.
Pogon Szczecin's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Pogon Szczecin arrived the stronger side — 1.47 PPG against 0.73. Form held, and they took the win. Lechia Gdansk (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.43 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Pogon Szczecin (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.86 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.14 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.