Lechia Gdansk 1-3 Piast Gliwice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Piast Gliwice at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lechia Gdansk vs Piast Gliwice fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Piast Gliwice make the trip to Polsat Plus Arena Gdańsk to face Lechia Gdansk in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 17. The match kicks off on Sunday 13 November 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Lechia Gdansk have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: W L W W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Lechia Gdansk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lechia Gdansk's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Polsat Plus Arena Gdańsk this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Polsat Plus Arena Gdańsk. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Piast Gliwice (all games): 1W 4D 5L across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this term — 0.70 points per game. Last five: L D L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Piast Gliwice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Piast Gliwice's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.20 exceeds their overall 0.70 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.10 for Lechia Gdansk, 0.70 for Piast Gliwice — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Lechia Gdansk 1W, Piast Gliwice 1W, 0D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 2 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Mar 2022, ended 0–1 with Piast Gliwice winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Lechia Gdansk half-time and goal-timing data (49 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Piast Gliwice half-time and goal-timing data (49 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 26% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lechia Gdansk 47% versus Piast Gliwice 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lechia Gdansk 53% | Piast Gliwice 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lechia Gdansk 1.00 xG and Piast Gliwice 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lechia Gdansk attack 0.789 / defence 1.030 | Piast Gliwice attack 0.835 / defence 0.975. League average goals — home 1.303 / away 1.263. Lechia Gdansk's attack strength of 0.789 is below the league average — the 1.00 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 49 Lechia Gdansk games / 50 Piast Gliwice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lechia Gdansk 33% | Draw 30% | Piast Gliwice 37%. Fair-value odds: Lechia Gdansk 3.03 | Draw 3.33 | Piast Gliwice 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.09. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.09 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Piast Gliwice at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Piast Gliwice if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.09 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 35% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. Form rates corroborate: Lechia Gdansk 20% | Piast Gliwice 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lechia Gdansk vs Piast Gliwice | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Polsat Plus Arena Gdańsk • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Nov 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lechia Gdansk 33% | Draw 30% | Piast Gliwice 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 42% | xG Lechia Gdansk 1.00 / Piast Gliwice 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Lechia Gdansk attack 0.789 / def 1.030 | Piast Gliwice attack 0.835 / def 0.975 | league avg home 1.303 / away 1.263 • Poisson stance: Piast Gliwice (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.00
Lechia Gdansk xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Piast Gliwice xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lechia Gdansk vs Piast Gliwice kick off?
Lechia Gdansk vs Piast Gliwice kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 13 November 2022 at Polsat Plus Arena Gdańsk.
What was the final score in Lechia Gdansk vs Piast Gliwice?
Lechia Gdansk 1 - 3 Piast Gliwice.
Where is Lechia Gdansk vs Piast Gliwice being played?
The match is being played at Polsat Plus Arena Gdańsk.
What competition is Lechia Gdansk vs Piast Gliwice part of?
Lechia Gdansk vs Piast Gliwice is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Lechia Gdansk vs Piast Gliwice?
Our statistical model gives Lechia Gdansk a 33% chance of winning, Piast Gliwice a 37% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Piast Gliwice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lechia Gdansk vs Piast Gliwice?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Lechia Gdansk and Piast Gliwice will score (BTTS).
Will Lechia Gdansk vs Piast Gliwice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lechia Gdansk and Piast Gliwice?
Record (2 meetings): Lechia Gdansk 1W | Draws 0 | Piast Gliwice 1W.
What form are Lechia Gdansk and Piast Gliwice in?
Lechia Gdansk (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-W-W-L. Piast Gliwice (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Lechia Gdansk's attack rating (0.79) and Piast Gliwice's defence rating (0.97), the model arrives at 1.00 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Piast Gliwice's attack (0.83x) against Lechia Gdansk's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.09.
These ratings are built from 49/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.1%), 0-1 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Piast Gliwice Win
33%
3.05
30%
3.33
37%
2.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
12.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.00
Lechia Gdansk xG
Total xG
2.09
1.09
Piast Gliwice xG
3.05
33%
Home win
3.33
30%
Draw
2.69
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.38
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
34%
2.96
37%
2.72
Win to Nil
11%
9.02
14%
7.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.4 | 13.5 | 7.3 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.4 | 13.5 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 6.8 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lechia Gdansk vs Piast Gliwice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Lechia Gdansk and Piast Gliwice expected to score?
The model projects 1.00 expected goals for Lechia Gdansk and 1.09 for Piast Gliwice, a combined total of 2.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Lechia Gdansk vs Piast Gliwice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Lechia Gdansk's recent record stands at 20W 11D 18L from 49 games, a 1.45 PPG return, with W-L-W-W-L in the last five. The sample for Lechia Gdansk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Piast Gliwice, meanwhile, have gone 18W 13D 18L across 49 games — 1.37 PPG, with L-D-L-D-L in their last five. The sample for Piast Gliwice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.45 PPG for Lechia Gdansk against 1.37 for Piast Gliwice. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Lechia Gdansk have managed 13W 6D 4L from 23 games — 1.96 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.45 PPG overall — Lechia Gdansk are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Piast Gliwice's away record stands at 8W 8D 7L across 23 trips, a 1.39 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lechia Gdansk come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Lechia Gdansk are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Piast Gliwice are on 1.18 scored and 1.12 conceded.
Last 49 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lechia Gdansk
Blended
Piast Gliwice
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lechia Gdansk and Piast Gliwice in coming into this match?
Lechia Gdansk have gone 20W 11D 18L in their last 49 games (1.45 PPG), while Piast Gliwice have gone 18W 13D 18L in their last 49 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lechia Gdansk at home or Piast Gliwice away?
Lechia Gdansk's home record (1.96 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lechia Gdansk at home: 1.96 PPG; Piast Gliwice away: 1.39 PPG.
Have Lechia Gdansk or Piast Gliwice been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lechia Gdansk have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Piast Gliwice in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 20 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lechia Gdansk have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Piast Gliwice — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Lechia Gdansk
2
Draws
2
Piast Gliwice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lechia Gdansk and Piast Gliwice?
From 8 meetings on record, Lechia Gdansk have won 4, Piast Gliwice have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Lechia Gdansk and Piast Gliwice last play each other?
They last met on 20 April 2026, when Lechia Gdansk 1-1 Piast Gliwice.
Who has won more matches between Lechia Gdansk and Piast Gliwice?
Lechia Gdansk have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Lechia Gdansk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Piast Gliwice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lechia Gdansk 39%, Piast Gliwice 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 44% for Lechia Gdansk and 26% for Piast Gliwice.
On the defensive side: Lechia Gdansk keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Piast Gliwice in 30%; Piast Gliwice in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lechia Gdansk home games / Piast Gliwice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lechia Gdansk play Piast Gliwice?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Lechia Gdansk's recent matches and 39% of Piast Gliwice's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lechia Gdansk vs Piast Gliwice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Lechia Gdansk's recent games and 26% of Piast Gliwice's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lechia Gdansk and Piast Gliwice tend to score early?
Lechia Gdansk have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Piast Gliwice in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Piast Gliwice cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Lechia Gdansk.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Piast Gliwice beat Lechia Gdansk 1-3 at Polsat Plus Arena Gdańsk, Regular Season - 17, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lechia Gdansk 1.00 xG and Piast Gliwice 1.09 xG, a combined 2.09. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Piast Gliwice outscored their 1.09 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lechia Gdansk attack 0.79 / defence 1.03 against Piast Gliwice attack 0.83 / defence 0.97, drawn from 49/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lechia Gdansk 33% | Draw 30% | Piast Gliwice 37%, with Piast Gliwice to win its most likely call at 37%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lechia Gdansk 53%, Piast Gliwice 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lechia Gdansk's trading profile (49 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Piast Gliwice's trading profile (49 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lechia Gdansk 1.45 PPG, Piast Gliwice 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Piast Gliwice win broke the near-deadlock. Lechia Gdansk (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.87 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Piast Gliwice (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.13 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.