Lechia Gdansk 1-2 Cracovia Krakow – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lechia Gdansk at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lechia Gdansk vs Cracovia Krakow fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ekstraklasa clash, Regular Season - 29 as Lechia Gdansk welcome Cracovia Krakow to Polsat Plus Arena Gdańsk. Kick-off is set for Saturday 22 April 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Lechia Gdansk — All Games: 1W 3D 6L from 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season, averaging 0.60 points per game. Last five: W L D L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
In front of their own supporters this season, Lechia Gdansk have posted 4W 2D 4L at Polsat Plus Arena Gdańsk — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Polsat Plus Arena Gdańsk. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Lechia Gdansk are significantly better at Polsat Plus Arena Gdańsk than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cracovia Krakow stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Cracovia Krakow's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Ekstraklasa this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Lechia Gdansk at 0.60 PPG versus Cracovia Krakow's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Lechia Gdansk, 1 for Cracovia Krakow and 0 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Oct 2022, ended 1–0 with Lechia Gdansk winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Lechia Gdansk in-play tendencies (62 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Cracovia Krakow in-play tendencies (62 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lechia Gdansk 44% versus Cracovia Krakow 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lechia Gdansk 50% | Cracovia Krakow 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lechia Gdansk 1.30 xG and Cracovia Krakow 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lechia Gdansk attack 0.838 / defence 0.955 | Cracovia Krakow attack 1.058 / defence 1.233. League average goals — home 1.260 / away 1.028. Cracovia Krakow bring a strong defensive rating of 1.233 — this is suppressing Lechia Gdansk's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 62 Lechia Gdansk games / 62 Cracovia Krakow games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lechia Gdansk 41% | Draw 30% | Cracovia Krakow 28%. Fair-value odds: Lechia Gdansk 2.44 | Draw 3.33 | Cracovia Krakow 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lechia Gdansk at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lechia Gdansk offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.34 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates corroborate: Lechia Gdansk 30% | Cracovia Krakow 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lechia Gdansk vs Cracovia Krakow | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Polsat Plus Arena Gdańsk • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Apr 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lechia Gdansk 41% | Draw 30% | Cracovia Krakow 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 48% | xG Lechia Gdansk 1.30 / Cracovia Krakow 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Lechia Gdansk attack 0.838 / def 0.955 | Cracovia Krakow attack 1.058 / def 1.233 | league avg home 1.260 / away 1.028 • Poisson stance: Lechia Gdansk (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Lechia Gdansk xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Cracovia Krakow xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lechia Gdansk vs Cracovia Krakow kick off?
Lechia Gdansk vs Cracovia Krakow kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 22 April 2023 at Polsat Plus Arena Gdańsk.
What was the final score in Lechia Gdansk vs Cracovia Krakow?
Lechia Gdansk 1 - 2 Cracovia Krakow.
Where is Lechia Gdansk vs Cracovia Krakow being played?
The match is being played at Polsat Plus Arena Gdańsk.
What competition is Lechia Gdansk vs Cracovia Krakow part of?
Lechia Gdansk vs Cracovia Krakow is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Lechia Gdansk vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our statistical model gives Lechia Gdansk a 41% chance of winning, Cracovia Krakow a 28% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Lechia Gdansk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lechia Gdansk vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Lechia Gdansk and Cracovia Krakow will score (BTTS).
Will Lechia Gdansk vs Cracovia Krakow have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lechia Gdansk and Cracovia Krakow?
Record (3 meetings): Lechia Gdansk 2W | Draws 0 | Cracovia Krakow 1W.
What form are Lechia Gdansk and Cracovia Krakow in?
Lechia Gdansk (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-D-L-L. Cracovia Krakow (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Lechia Gdansk's attack at 0.84x the league average against Cracovia Krakow's defence at 1.23x — combine the two and it projects 1.30 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Cracovia Krakow's attack versus Lechia Gdansk's defence, projects 1.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 62/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.3%), 1-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lechia Gdansk Win
41%
2.42
30%
3.29
28%
3.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Lechia Gdansk xG
Total xG
2.34
1.04
Cracovia Krakow xG
2.42
41%
Home win
3.29
30%
Draw
3.52
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
35%
2.83
27%
3.68
Win to Nil
15%
6.85
8%
12.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 10.0 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 13.0 | 6.8 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 8.5 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lechia Gdansk vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Lechia Gdansk and Cracovia Krakow expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Lechia Gdansk and 1.04 for Cracovia Krakow, a combined total of 2.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Lechia Gdansk vs Cracovia Krakow?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 62 outings, Lechia Gdansk have picked up 1.34 PPG on a 23W 14D 25L record — W-L-D-L-L across the most recent five.
Cracovia Krakow's form line: 22W 18D 22L from 62 games, 1.35 PPG, last five D-L-D-L-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Lechia Gdansk on 1.34 PPG, Cracovia Krakow on 1.35. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Lechia Gdansk have posted 1.81 PPG from 31 outings (16W 8D 7L). That's noticeably better than their 1.34 PPG overall — Lechia Gdansk are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Cracovia Krakow have gone 8W 9D 14L from 31 away games — 1.06 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lechia Gdansk come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Lechia Gdansk are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; Cracovia Krakow are on 1.19 scored and 1.13 conceded.
Last 62 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lechia Gdansk
Current Season
Cracovia Krakow
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lechia Gdansk and Cracovia Krakow in coming into this match?
Lechia Gdansk have gone 23W 14D 25L in their last 62 games (1.34 PPG), while Cracovia Krakow have gone 22W 18D 22L in their last 62 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lechia Gdansk at home or Cracovia Krakow away?
Lechia Gdansk's home record (1.81 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lechia Gdansk at home: 1.81 PPG; Cracovia Krakow away: 1.06 PPG.
Have Lechia Gdansk or Cracovia Krakow been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lechia Gdansk have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Cracovia Krakow in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 6 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Aug 2021, when Lechia Gdansk won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Lechia Gdansk's record when hosting Cracovia Krakow specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Lechia Gdansk
2
Draws
3
Cracovia Krakow
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lechia Gdansk and Cracovia Krakow?
From 8 meetings on record, Lechia Gdansk have won 3, Cracovia Krakow have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Lechia Gdansk and Cracovia Krakow last play each other?
They last met on 6 February 2026, when Lechia Gdansk 1-1 Cracovia Krakow.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Lechia Gdansk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Cracovia Krakow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lechia Gdansk 39%, Cracovia Krakow 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Lechia Gdansk) and 39% (Cracovia Krakow).
On the defensive side: Lechia Gdansk keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Lechia Gdansk have failed to score in 26% of games; Cracovia Krakow in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lechia Gdansk home games / Cracovia Krakow away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lechia Gdansk play Cracovia Krakow?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Lechia Gdansk's recent matches and 48% of Cracovia Krakow's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lechia Gdansk vs Cracovia Krakow usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Lechia Gdansk's recent games and 39% of Cracovia Krakow's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lechia Gdansk and Cracovia Krakow tend to score early?
Lechia Gdansk have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Cracovia Krakow in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Cracovia Krakow defy the odds to beat Lechia Gdansk 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cracovia Krakow beat Lechia Gdansk 1-2 at Polsat Plus Arena Gdańsk, Regular Season - 29, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lechia Gdansk 1.30 xG and Cracovia Krakow 1.04 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Cracovia Krakow outscored their 1.04 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lechia Gdansk attack 0.84 / defence 0.95 against Cracovia Krakow attack 1.06 / defence 1.23, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lechia Gdansk 41% | Draw 30% | Cracovia Krakow 28%, with Lechia Gdansk to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Cracovia Krakow win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lechia Gdansk 50%, Cracovia Krakow 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lechia Gdansk's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Cracovia Krakow's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lechia Gdansk 1.34 PPG, Cracovia Krakow 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cracovia Krakow win broke the near-deadlock. Lechia Gdansk (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.90 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Cracovia Krakow (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.