Lech Poznan 0-0 Cracovia Krakow – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Lech Poznan at 46% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lech Poznan vs Cracovia Krakow encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Cracovia Krakow travel to Enea Stadion to take on Lech Poznan in Ekstraklasa (matchday 30). The game is scheduled for Sunday 28 April 2024 at 17:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Lech Poznan stand at 5W 3D 2L — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W D W L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Lech Poznan at home: 6W 2D 2L from their last 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Across their last 10 games, Cracovia Krakow have recorded 2W 5D 3L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D L D W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.20. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Cracovia Krakow away from home: 2W 5D 3L from their last 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Lech Poznan are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 0.70 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 1.10). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 4 H2H matches, Lech Poznan have won 1, Cracovia Krakow 0, with 3 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 28 Oct 2023, ended Lech Poznan 1–1 Cracovia Krakow — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Lech Poznan trading profile (last 63 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
Cracovia Krakow trading profile (last 63 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; of the 21 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 45%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lech Poznan 48% versus Cracovia Krakow 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lech Poznan 48% | Cracovia Krakow 36%). Note also that Cracovia Krakow surrender HT leads in 29% of cases while Lech Poznan recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 31% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lech Poznan 1.31 xG and Cracovia Krakow 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lech Poznan attack 1.031 / defence 0.725 | Cracovia Krakow attack 0.975 / defence 0.863. League average goals — home 1.477 / away 1.185. Lech Poznan have a tight defence (rating 0.725), which is pulling Cracovia Krakow's projected output down. Data: built from Lech Poznan's last 63 games and Cracovia Krakow's last 63.
Result probabilities: Lech Poznan 46% | Draw 32% | Cracovia Krakow 22%. Fair-value odds: Lech Poznan 2.16 | Draw 3.16 | Cracovia Krakow 4.50. Lech Poznan hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS Yes probability 43% | Total xG 2.15. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.15 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 57% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Lech Poznan are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lech Poznan offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.15 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 64% probability — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 4 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 57%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Lech Poznan 40% (last 10 home games) | Cracovia Krakow 60% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lech Poznan vs Cracovia Krakow | Competition: Ekstraklasa, matchday 30 | Venue: Enea Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 28 April 2024 at 17:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lech Poznan 46% | Draw 32% | Cracovia Krakow 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% (Under 64%) | BTTS Yes 43% (No 57%) | xG Lech Poznan 1.31 / Cracovia Krakow 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: Lech Poznan attack 1.031 / def 0.725 | Cracovia Krakow attack 0.975 / def 0.863 | league avg home 1.477 / away 1.185 • Poisson stance: Lech Poznan (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Lech Poznan xG
Expected Goals
0.84
Cracovia Krakow xG
43%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Lech Poznan vs Cracovia Krakow FAQs
What time does Lech Poznan vs Cracovia Krakow kick off?
Lech Poznan vs Cracovia Krakow kicked off at 17:30 UK time on Sunday 28 April 2024 at Enea Stadion.
What was the final score in Lech Poznan vs Cracovia Krakow?
Lech Poznan 0 - 0 Cracovia Krakow.
Where is Lech Poznan vs Cracovia Krakow being played?
The match is being played at Enea Stadion.
What competition is Lech Poznan vs Cracovia Krakow part of?
Lech Poznan vs Cracovia Krakow is a Ekstraklasa fixture (matchday 30) (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Lech Poznan vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our statistical model gives Lech Poznan a 46% chance of winning, Cracovia Krakow a 22% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Lech Poznan the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lech Poznan vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Lech Poznan and Cracovia Krakow will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (57%).
Will Lech Poznan vs Cracovia Krakow have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (64%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Lech Poznan's attacking strength (1.03x league average) is weighed against Cracovia Krakow's defensive record (0.86x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.31. The same calculation in reverse, Cracovia Krakow's attack versus Lech Poznan's defence, projects 0.84 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Lech Poznan's last 63 games and Cracovia Krakow's last 63 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.6%), 0-0 (13.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lech Poznan Win
46%
2.16
32%
3.16
22%
4.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
11.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Lech Poznan xG
Total xG
2.15
0.84
Cracovia Krakow xG
2.16
46%
Home win
3.16
32%
Draw
4.50
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.32
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
43%
2.31
27%
3.72
Win to Nil
20%
5.00
6%
16.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.6 | 9.7 | 4.1 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.3 | 12.8 | 5.4 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 8.4 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.4 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Lech Poznan vs Cracovia Krakow Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Lech Poznan vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Lech Poznan and Cracovia Krakow expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Lech Poznan and 0.84 for Cracovia Krakow, a combined total of 2.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Lech Poznan vs Cracovia Krakow?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Lech Poznan's recent record stands at 31W 19D 13L from 63 games, a 1.78 PPG return, with W-D-W-L-W in the last five.
Cracovia Krakow, meanwhile, have gone 18W 24D 21L across 63 games — 1.24 PPG, with D-L-D-W-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Lech Poznan by 0.54 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Cracovia Krakow heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Lech Poznan have managed 18W 5D 8L from their last 31 home games — 1.90 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cracovia Krakow's away record stands at 7W 12D 12L across their last 31 away games, a 1.06 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lech Poznan come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Lech Poznan are averaging 1.49 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Cracovia Krakow are on 1.25 scored and 1.19 conceded.
Defensively: Lech Poznan have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 63 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lech Poznan
Current Season
Cracovia Krakow
Current Season
Lech Poznan (Home) vs Cracovia Krakow (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Lech Poznan
Current Season
Cracovia Krakow
Current Season
❓ Lech Poznan vs Cracovia Krakow Form FAQs
What form are Lech Poznan and Cracovia Krakow in coming into this match?
Lech Poznan have gone 31W 19D 13L in their last 63 games (1.78 PPG), while Cracovia Krakow have gone 18W 24D 21L in their last 63 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lech Poznan at home or Cracovia Krakow away?
Lech Poznan's home record (1.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lech Poznan at home: 1.90 PPG; Cracovia Krakow away: 1.06 PPG.
Have Lech Poznan or Cracovia Krakow been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lech Poznan have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Cracovia Krakow in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from February 2022. All of them came in Ekstraklasa. The most recent was on 25 July 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 6 May 2023, when Lech Poznan won Lech Poznan 3-0 Cracovia Krakow.
Lech Poznan's record when hosting Cracovia Krakow specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Lech Poznan
6
Draws
1
Cracovia Krakow
Recent Meetings
❓ Lech Poznan vs Cracovia Krakow H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Lech Poznan and Cracovia Krakow?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Lech Poznan have won 3, Cracovia Krakow have won 1, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Lech Poznan and Cracovia Krakow last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 25 July 2026: Lech Poznan 0-0 Cracovia Krakow.
Who has won more matches between Lech Poznan and Cracovia Krakow?
Lech Poznan have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Lech Poznan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Cracovia Krakow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 36% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lech Poznan 39%, Cracovia Krakow 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Lech Poznan) and 32% (Cracovia Krakow).
On the defensive side: Lech Poznan keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Cracovia Krakow in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lech Poznan home games / Cracovia Krakow away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Lech Poznan vs Cracovia Krakow Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Lech Poznan and Cracovia Krakow matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Lech Poznan's recent matches and 52% of Cracovia Krakow's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Lech Poznan and Cracovia Krakow matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Lech Poznan's recent games and 32% of Cracovia Krakow's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lech Poznan and Cracovia Krakow matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 77% of Lech Poznan's recent matches and 74% of Cracovia Krakow's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Lech Poznan's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Enea Stadion, Regular Season - 30, as Lech Poznan and Cracovia Krakow drew 0-0 in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lech Poznan 1.31 xG and Cracovia Krakow 0.84 xG, a combined 2.15. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Lech Poznan fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Cracovia Krakow landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lech Poznan attack 1.03 / defence 0.72 against Cracovia Krakow attack 0.97 / defence 0.86, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lech Poznan 46% | Draw 32% | Cracovia Krakow 22%, with Lech Poznan to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lech Poznan 48%, Cracovia Krakow 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lech Poznan's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one.
Cracovia Krakow's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Lech Poznan arrived the stronger side — 1.78 PPG against 1.24. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Lech Poznan (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.68 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.87 average — tighter than their form line. Cracovia Krakow (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.