Korona Kielce 1-2 Pogon Szczecin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Pogon Szczecin at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Korona Kielce vs Pogon Szczecin fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Suzuki Arena plays host to Korona Kielce versus Pogon Szczecin in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off: Sunday 4 September 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Korona Kielce have collected 1.43 PPG across 7 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 3W 1D 3L. Last five: W W L L W. They are averaging 1.14 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 7 outings provides some defensive foundation. Korona Kielce have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Korona Kielce's home record at Suzuki Arena: 1W 1D 1L from 3 Ekstraklasa appearances (1.33 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Pogon Szczecin's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 4W 4D 2L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: W W D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Pogon Szczecin have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Pogon Szczecin's away record: 5W 3D 2L from 10 road trips in Ekstraklasa this season (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.43 for Korona Kielce, 1.60 for Pogon Szczecin — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading & In-Play
Korona Kielce — key trading statistics (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games.
Pogon Szczecin — key trading statistics (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures; they lead at the break 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Korona Kielce 43% versus Pogon Szczecin 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Korona Kielce 29% | Pogon Szczecin 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Korona Kielce 1.14 xG and Pogon Szczecin 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Korona Kielce attack 0.961 / defence 1.082 | Pogon Szczecin attack 0.926 / defence 0.931. League average goals — home 1.269 / away 1.175. Data: 7 Korona Kielce games / 41 Pogon Szczecin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Korona Kielce 35% | Draw 28% | Pogon Szczecin 37%. Fair-value odds: Korona Kielce 2.86 | Draw 3.57 | Pogon Szczecin 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.31. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.31 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Pogon Szczecin are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Pogon Szczecin if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.31 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates are neutral: Korona Kielce 67% | Pogon Szczecin 50%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Korona Kielce vs Pogon Szczecin | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Suzuki Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 4 Sep 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Korona Kielce 35% | Draw 28% | Pogon Szczecin 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 47% | xG Korona Kielce 1.14 / Pogon Szczecin 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Korona Kielce attack 0.961 / def 1.082 | Pogon Szczecin attack 0.926 / def 0.931 | league avg home 1.269 / away 1.175 • Poisson stance: Pogon Szczecin (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Korona Kielce xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Pogon Szczecin xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Korona Kielce vs Pogon Szczecin kick off?
Korona Kielce vs Pogon Szczecin kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 4 September 2022 at Suzuki Arena.
What was the final score in Korona Kielce vs Pogon Szczecin?
Korona Kielce 1 - 2 Pogon Szczecin.
Where is Korona Kielce vs Pogon Szczecin being played?
The match is being played at Suzuki Arena.
What competition is Korona Kielce vs Pogon Szczecin part of?
Korona Kielce vs Pogon Szczecin is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Korona Kielce vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our statistical model gives Korona Kielce a 35% chance of winning, Pogon Szczecin a 37% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Pogon Szczecin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Korona Kielce vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Korona Kielce and Pogon Szczecin will score (BTTS).
Will Korona Kielce vs Pogon Szczecin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Korona Kielce and Pogon Szczecin?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Korona Kielce and Pogon Szczecin in?
Korona Kielce (all comps): 3W-1D-3L in 7 | 1.43 PPG | GF 1.14 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-L-W. Pogon Szczecin (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Korona Kielce's attack at 0.96x the league average against Pogon Szczecin's defence at 0.93x — combine the two and it projects 1.14 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Pogon Szczecin's attack (0.93x) against Korona Kielce's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 1.18.
These ratings are built from 7/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.6%), 0-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pogon Szczecin Win
35%
2.87
28%
3.54
37%
2.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.6%
Away win
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Korona Kielce xG
Total xG
2.31
1.18
Pogon Szczecin xG
2.87
35%
Home win
3.54
28%
Draw
2.71
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
31%
3.24
32%
3.11
Win to Nil
11%
9.31
12%
8.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.9 | 11.6 | 6.9 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 13.2 | 7.8 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 7.5 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.8 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Korona Kielce vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Korona Kielce and Pogon Szczecin expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Korona Kielce and 1.18 for Pogon Szczecin, a combined total of 2.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Korona Kielce vs Pogon Szczecin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Korona Kielce come into this having played 7 games, going 3W 1D 3L for 1.43 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-L-W. It's still early in the season for Korona Kielce, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Pogon Szczecin sit at 1.86 PPG from 7 outings (4W 1D 2L), a run that reads W-W-D-W-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Pogon Szczecin, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Pogon Szczecin carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.43 PPG clear of Korona Kielce — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Korona Kielce's home form reads 1W 1D 1L across 3 games on their own ground, a 1.33 PPG return.
Away from home, Pogon Szczecin have taken 1.00 points per game from 3 outings (1W 0D 2L). That's a step down from their 1.86 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Pogon Szczecin's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Korona Kielce are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Pogon Szczecin are on 1.57 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Last 7 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Korona Kielce
Early Season
Pogon Szczecin
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Korona Kielce and Pogon Szczecin in coming into this match?
Korona Kielce have gone 3W 1D 3L in their last 7 games (1.43 PPG), while Pogon Szczecin have gone 4W 1D 2L in their last 7 (1.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Korona Kielce at home or Pogon Szczecin away?
Korona Kielce's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Korona Kielce at home: 1.33 PPG; Pogon Szczecin away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since September 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 16 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Pogon Szczecin won 3-0 on 20 Jul 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Korona Kielce have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Pogon Szczecin — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Korona Kielce
3
Draws
4
Pogon Szczecin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Korona Kielce and Pogon Szczecin?
From 8 meetings on record, Korona Kielce have won 1, Pogon Szczecin have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Korona Kielce and Pogon Szczecin last play each other?
They last met on 16 March 2026, when Pogon Szczecin 2-1 Korona Kielce.
Who has won more matches between Korona Kielce and Pogon Szczecin?
Pogon Szczecin have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Korona Kielce are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Pogon Szczecin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 67% for Korona Kielce, 67% for Pogon Szczecin — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Korona Kielce) and 67% (Pogon Szczecin).
On the defensive side: Korona Kielce have failed to score in 33% of games; Pogon Szczecin in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Korona Kielce home games / Pogon Szczecin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Korona Kielce play Pogon Szczecin?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Korona Kielce's games and 67% of Pogon Szczecin's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Korona Kielce vs Pogon Szczecin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Korona Kielce's recent games and 67% of Pogon Szczecin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Korona Kielce and Pogon Szczecin tend to score early?
Korona Kielce have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Pogon Szczecin in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Pogon Szczecin edge out Korona Kielce 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pogon Szczecin beat Korona Kielce 1-2 at Suzuki Arena, Regular Season - 8, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Korona Kielce 1.14 xG and Pogon Szczecin 1.18 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Pogon Szczecin outscored their 1.18 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Korona Kielce attack 0.96 / defence 1.08 against Pogon Szczecin attack 0.93 / defence 0.93, drawn from 7/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Korona Kielce 35% | Draw 28% | Pogon Szczecin 37%, with Pogon Szczecin to win its most likely call at 37%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Korona Kielce 29%, Pogon Szczecin 71%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Korona Kielce's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
Pogon Szczecin's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Pogon Szczecin arrived the stronger side — 1.86 PPG against 1.43. That form edge translated into the three points. Korona Kielce (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Pogon Szczecin (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.