Korona Kielce 1-1 Piast Gliwice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Korona Kielce at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Korona Kielce vs Piast Gliwice fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ekstraklasa encounter, Regular Season - 31 sees Piast Gliwice travel to Suzuki Arena to take on Korona Kielce. The game is scheduled for Sunday 5 May 2024, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Korona Kielce stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W L W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Korona Kielce have posted 4W 4D 2L at Suzuki Arena — 1.60 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Korona Kielce are significantly better at Suzuki Arena than their overall form suggests.
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Piast Gliwice have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D L W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Piast Gliwice have posted 2W 4D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Korona Kielce 1.00 PPG, Piast Gliwice 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Korona Kielce have won 0, Piast Gliwice 1, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.7 per contest from 3 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 3 Nov 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Korona Kielce in-play and half-time data (64 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Piast Gliwice in-play and half-time data (64 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 22% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Korona Kielce 58% versus Piast Gliwice 44%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Korona Kielce 44% | Piast Gliwice 31%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Korona Kielce 1.64 xG and Piast Gliwice 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Korona Kielce attack 1.107 / defence 1.022 | Piast Gliwice attack 0.879 / defence 0.969. League average goals — home 1.525 / away 1.157. Data: 64 Korona Kielce games / 64 Piast Gliwice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Korona Kielce 50% | Draw 28% | Piast Gliwice 23%. Fair-value odds: Korona Kielce 2.00 | Draw 3.57 | Piast Gliwice 4.35. Korona Kielce hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Korona Kielce at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Korona Kielce offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.67 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 50% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Korona Kielce 60% | Piast Gliwice 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Korona Kielce vs Piast Gliwice | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Suzuki Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 5 May 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Korona Kielce 50% | Draw 28% | Piast Gliwice 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 54% | xG Korona Kielce 1.64 / Piast Gliwice 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Korona Kielce attack 1.107 / def 1.022 | Piast Gliwice attack 0.879 / def 0.969 | league avg home 1.525 / away 1.157 • Poisson stance: Korona Kielce (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.64
Korona Kielce xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Piast Gliwice xG
54%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Korona Kielce vs Piast Gliwice kick off?
Korona Kielce vs Piast Gliwice kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 5 May 2024 at Suzuki Arena.
What was the final score in Korona Kielce vs Piast Gliwice?
Korona Kielce 1 - 1 Piast Gliwice.
Where is Korona Kielce vs Piast Gliwice being played?
The match is being played at Suzuki Arena.
What competition is Korona Kielce vs Piast Gliwice part of?
Korona Kielce vs Piast Gliwice is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Korona Kielce vs Piast Gliwice?
Our statistical model gives Korona Kielce a 50% chance of winning, Piast Gliwice a 23% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Korona Kielce the favourite.
Will both teams score in Korona Kielce vs Piast Gliwice?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Korona Kielce and Piast Gliwice will score (BTTS).
Will Korona Kielce vs Piast Gliwice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Korona Kielce and Piast Gliwice?
Record (3 meetings): Korona Kielce 0W | Draws 2 | Piast Gliwice 1W.
What form are Korona Kielce and Piast Gliwice in?
Korona Kielce (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-L-W-D. Piast Gliwice (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Korona Kielce's attack rating (1.11) and Piast Gliwice's defence rating (0.97), the model arrives at 1.64 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Piast Gliwice's attack versus Korona Kielce's defence, projects 1.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 64/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.8%), 2-1 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Korona Kielce Win
50%
2.01
28%
3.61
23%
4.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.64
Korona Kielce xG
Total xG
2.67
1.04
Piast Gliwice xG
2.01
50%
Home win
3.61
28%
Draw
4.43
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.87
46%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
35%
2.83
19%
5.13
Win to Nil
18%
5.68
4%
22.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 7.2 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 11.7 | 6.1 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.6 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 5.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Korona Kielce vs Piast Gliwice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Korona Kielce and Piast Gliwice expected to score?
The model projects 1.64 expected goals for Korona Kielce and 1.04 for Piast Gliwice, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Korona Kielce vs Piast Gliwice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 64 outings, Korona Kielce have picked up 1.12 PPG on a 17W 21D 26L record — L-W-L-W-D across the most recent five.
Piast Gliwice's form line: 22W 22D 20L from 64 games, 1.38 PPG, last five D-L-W-W-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Korona Kielce on 1.12 PPG, Piast Gliwice on 1.38. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Korona Kielce have posted 1.53 PPG from 32 outings (13W 10D 9L). That's noticeably better than their 1.12 PPG overall — Korona Kielce are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Piast Gliwice have gone 10W 12D 10L from 32 away games — 1.31 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Korona Kielce are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Piast Gliwice are on 1.08 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: Piast Gliwice in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 64 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Korona Kielce
Current Season
Piast Gliwice
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Korona Kielce and Piast Gliwice in coming into this match?
Korona Kielce have gone 17W 21D 26L in their last 64 games (1.12 PPG), while Piast Gliwice have gone 22W 22D 20L in their last 64 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Korona Kielce at home or Piast Gliwice away?
Korona Kielce's home record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Korona Kielce at home: 1.53 PPG; Piast Gliwice away: 1.31 PPG.
Have Korona Kielce or Piast Gliwice been keeping clean sheets recently?
Korona Kielce have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Piast Gliwice in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 1 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Korona Kielce's record when hosting Piast Gliwice specifically: 0W 3D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Korona Kielce
6
Draws
2
Piast Gliwice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Korona Kielce and Piast Gliwice?
From 8 meetings on record, Korona Kielce have won 0, Piast Gliwice have won 2, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Korona Kielce and Piast Gliwice last play each other?
They last met on 1 May 2026, when Korona Kielce 1-1 Piast Gliwice.
Who has won more matches between Korona Kielce and Piast Gliwice?
Piast Gliwice have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Korona Kielce are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Piast Gliwice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Korona Kielce 56%, Piast Gliwice 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 44% for Korona Kielce and 22% for Piast Gliwice.
On the defensive side: Piast Gliwice in 34%; Piast Gliwice in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Korona Kielce home games / Piast Gliwice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Korona Kielce play Piast Gliwice?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Korona Kielce's recent matches and 41% of Piast Gliwice's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Korona Kielce vs Piast Gliwice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Korona Kielce's recent games and 22% of Piast Gliwice's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Korona Kielce and Piast Gliwice tend to score early?
Korona Kielce have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Piast Gliwice in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Korona Kielce and Piast Gliwice share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Korona Kielce and Piast Gliwice finished level at 1-1 at Suzuki Arena, Regular Season - 31, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Korona Kielce 1.64 xG and Piast Gliwice 1.04 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Korona Kielce attack 1.11 / defence 1.02 against Piast Gliwice attack 0.88 / defence 0.97, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Korona Kielce 50% | Draw 28% | Piast Gliwice 23%, with Korona Kielce to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Korona Kielce 44%, Piast Gliwice 31%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Korona Kielce's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Piast Gliwice's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Korona Kielce 1.12 PPG, Piast Gliwice 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.