Jagiellonia 3-1 Wisla Krakow – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jagiellonia at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Jagiellonia vs Wisla Krakow fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Wisla Krakow make the trip to Stadion Miejski to face Jagiellonia in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 15. The match kicks off on Saturday 20 November 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Jagiellonia's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 2W 5D 3L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: W D L D D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Jagiellonia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Jagiellonia at Stadion Miejski this season: 3W 4D 1L from 8 home games — 1.62 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game. 3 home clean sheets from 8 games (38%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 62% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.62 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Jagiellonia are significantly better at Stadion Miejski than their overall form suggests.
Wisla Krakow (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: L W L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Wisla Krakow, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Wisla Krakow have gone 2W 1D 4L from 7 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.86 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.10 PPG for Jagiellonia against 1.30 for Wisla Krakow. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading & In-Play
Jagiellonia — key trading statistics (14 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
Wisla Krakow — key trading statistics (14 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jagiellonia 64% versus Wisla Krakow 36%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jagiellonia 50% | Wisla Krakow 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jagiellonia 1.66 xG and Wisla Krakow 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jagiellonia attack 1.081 / defence 1.171 | Wisla Krakow attack 0.724 / defence 1.303. League average goals — home 1.180 / away 1.222. Wisla Krakow bring a strong defensive rating of 1.303 — this is suppressing Jagiellonia's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 14 Jagiellonia games / 14 Wisla Krakow games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jagiellonia 51% | Draw 26% | Wisla Krakow 23%. Fair-value odds: Jagiellonia 1.96 | Draw 3.85 | Wisla Krakow 4.35. Jagiellonia hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Jagiellonia are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Jagiellonia if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.70 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Jagiellonia 62% | Wisla Krakow 43%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jagiellonia vs Wisla Krakow | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Stadion Miejski • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Nov 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jagiellonia 51% | Draw 26% | Wisla Krakow 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 53% | xG Jagiellonia 1.66 / Wisla Krakow 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Jagiellonia attack 1.081 / def 1.171 | Wisla Krakow attack 0.724 / def 1.303 | league avg home 1.180 / away 1.222 • Poisson stance: Jagiellonia (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.66
Jagiellonia xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Wisla Krakow xG
53%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jagiellonia vs Wisla Krakow kick off?
Jagiellonia vs Wisla Krakow kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 20 November 2021 at Stadion Miejski.
What was the final score in Jagiellonia vs Wisla Krakow?
Jagiellonia 3 - 1 Wisla Krakow.
Where is Jagiellonia vs Wisla Krakow being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski.
What competition is Jagiellonia vs Wisla Krakow part of?
Jagiellonia vs Wisla Krakow is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Jagiellonia vs Wisla Krakow?
Our statistical model gives Jagiellonia a 51% chance of winning, Wisla Krakow a 23% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Jagiellonia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jagiellonia vs Wisla Krakow?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Jagiellonia and Wisla Krakow will score (BTTS).
Will Jagiellonia vs Wisla Krakow have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jagiellonia and Wisla Krakow?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Jagiellonia and Wisla Krakow in?
Jagiellonia (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-D-L-D-D. Wisla Krakow (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Jagiellonia's attacking strength (1.08x league average) is weighed against Wisla Krakow's defensive record (1.30x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.66. Flip it around — Wisla Krakow's attack (0.72x) against Jagiellonia's defence (1.17x) — and the away total comes out at 1.04.
These ratings are built from 14/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.7%), 2-1 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jagiellonia Win
51%
1.96
26%
3.83
23%
4.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.66
Jagiellonia xG
Total xG
2.70
1.04
Wisla Krakow xG
1.96
51%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
4.40
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
35%
2.82
19%
5.27
Win to Nil
18%
5.51
4%
23.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 7.0 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 11.6 | 6.0 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.6 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 5.3 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jagiellonia vs Wisla Krakow?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Jagiellonia and Wisla Krakow expected to score?
The model projects 1.66 expected goals for Jagiellonia and 1.04 for Wisla Krakow, a combined total of 2.70.
How confident is the prediction model for Jagiellonia vs Wisla Krakow?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Jagiellonia's recent record stands at 4W 6D 4L from 14 games, a 1.29 PPG return, with W-D-L-D-D in the last five. The sample for Jagiellonia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Wisla Krakow, meanwhile, have gone 5W 2D 7L across 14 games — 1.21 PPG, with L-W-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Wisla Krakow is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.29 PPG for Jagiellonia against 1.21 for Wisla Krakow. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Jagiellonia have managed 3W 3D 1L from 7 games — 1.71 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.29 PPG overall — Jagiellonia are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Wisla Krakow's away record stands at 2W 1D 4L across 7 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Jagiellonia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Jagiellonia are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Wisla Krakow are on 1.07 scored and 1.64 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jagiellonia have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 14 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jagiellonia
Blended
Wisla Krakow
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jagiellonia and Wisla Krakow in coming into this match?
Jagiellonia have gone 4W 6D 4L in their last 14 games (1.29 PPG), while Wisla Krakow have gone 5W 2D 7L in their last 14 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jagiellonia at home or Wisla Krakow away?
Jagiellonia's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jagiellonia at home: 1.71 PPG; Wisla Krakow away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 May 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Jagiellonia
1
Draws
0
Wisla Krakow
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jagiellonia and Wisla Krakow?
From 2 meetings on record, Jagiellonia have won 1, Wisla Krakow have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Jagiellonia and Wisla Krakow last play each other?
They last met on 7 May 2022, when Wisla Krakow 0-0 Jagiellonia.
Who has won more matches between Jagiellonia and Wisla Krakow?
Jagiellonia have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Jagiellonia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Wisla Krakow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jagiellonia 57%, Wisla Krakow 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Jagiellonia) and 57% (Wisla Krakow).
On the defensive side: Jagiellonia keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Wisla Krakow in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jagiellonia home games / Wisla Krakow away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jagiellonia play Wisla Krakow?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Jagiellonia's recent matches and 43% of Wisla Krakow's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Jagiellonia vs Wisla Krakow usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Jagiellonia's recent games and 57% of Wisla Krakow's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Jagiellonia and Wisla Krakow tend to score early?
Jagiellonia have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Wisla Krakow in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Jagiellonia cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Wisla Krakow.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jagiellonia beat Wisla Krakow 3-1 at Stadion Miejski, Regular Season - 15, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jagiellonia 1.66 xG and Wisla Krakow 1.04 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Jagiellonia beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jagiellonia attack 1.08 / defence 1.17 against Wisla Krakow attack 0.72 / defence 1.30, drawn from 14/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jagiellonia 51% | Draw 26% | Wisla Krakow 23%, with Jagiellonia to win its most likely call at 51%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jagiellonia 50%, Wisla Krakow 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jagiellonia's trading profile (14 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Wisla Krakow's trading profile (14 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jagiellonia 1.29 PPG, Wisla Krakow 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Jagiellonia win broke the near-deadlock. Jagiellonia (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.57 average — above their attacking norm. Wisla Krakow (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.86 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.