Jagiellonia 0-2 Widzew Łódź – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Jagiellonia at 54% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Jagiellonia vs Widzew Łódź encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion Miejski plays host to Jagiellonia versus Widzew Łódź in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off: Friday 22 July 2022 at 19:30 UTC.
Form
Jagiellonia (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D D D W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Jagiellonia have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Jagiellonia's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 games at Stadion Miejski this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Widzew Łódź have collected 0.00 PPG across 1 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 0W 0D 1L. Last five: L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Widzew Łódź have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The points-per-game gap of 1.30 in Jagiellonia's favour (1.30 vs 0.00) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using overall form) — Jagiellonia register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Widzew Łódź in 100%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jagiellonia 1.66 xG and Widzew Łódź 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jagiellonia attack 1.102 / defence 0.888 | Widzew Łódź attack 0.840 / defence 1.172. League average goals — home 1.286 / away 1.197. Data: 35 Jagiellonia games / 1 Widzew Łódź games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Jagiellonia 54% | Draw 28% | Widzew Łódź 19%. Fair-value odds: Jagiellonia 1.85 | Draw 3.57 | Widzew Łódź 5.26. Jagiellonia hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Jagiellonia are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Jagiellonia if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.55 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jagiellonia vs Widzew Łódź | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Stadion Miejski • Kick-off: Friday 22 Jul 2022, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jagiellonia 54% | Draw 28% | Widzew Łódź 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 49% | xG Jagiellonia 1.66 / Widzew Łódź 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Jagiellonia attack 1.102 / def 0.888 | Widzew Łódź attack 0.840 / def 1.172 | league avg home 1.286 / away 1.197 • Poisson stance: Jagiellonia (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.66
Jagiellonia xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Widzew Łódź xG
49%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jagiellonia vs Widzew Łódź kick off?
Jagiellonia vs Widzew Łódź kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 22 July 2022 at Stadion Miejski.
What was the final score in Jagiellonia vs Widzew Łódź?
Jagiellonia 0 - 2 Widzew Łódź.
Where is Jagiellonia vs Widzew Łódź being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski.
What competition is Jagiellonia vs Widzew Łódź part of?
Jagiellonia vs Widzew Łódź is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Jagiellonia vs Widzew Łódź?
Our statistical model gives Jagiellonia a 54% chance of winning, Widzew Łódź a 19% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Jagiellonia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jagiellonia vs Widzew Łódź?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Jagiellonia and Widzew Łódź will score (BTTS).
Will Jagiellonia vs Widzew Łódź have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jagiellonia and Widzew Łódź?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Jagiellonia and Widzew Łódź in?
Jagiellonia (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-D-W-W. Widzew Łódź (all comps): 0W-0D-1L in 1 | 0.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Jagiellonia's attack rating (1.10) and Widzew Łódź's defence rating (1.17), the model arrives at 1.66 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Widzew Łódź's attack (0.84x) against Jagiellonia's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 0.89.
The sample (35/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.4%), 2-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jagiellonia Win
54%
1.86
28%
3.62
19%
5.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
2 – 0
10.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.66
Jagiellonia xG
Total xG
2.55
0.89
Widzew Łódź xG
1.86
54%
Home win
3.62
28%
Draw
5.40
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.02
51%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
41%
2.44
19%
5.26
Win to Nil
22%
4.53
4%
28.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 7.0 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.9 | 11.5 | 5.1 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.7 | 9.6 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.9 | 5.3 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jagiellonia vs Widzew Łódź?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Jagiellonia and Widzew Łódź expected to score?
The model projects 1.66 expected goals for Jagiellonia and 0.89 for Widzew Łódź, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Jagiellonia vs Widzew Łódź?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Jagiellonia come into this having played 1 games, going 1W 0D 0L for 3.00 points per game. Their last five reads W. It's still early in the season for Jagiellonia, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Widzew Łódź sit at 0.00 PPG from 1 outings (0W 0D 1L), a run that reads L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Widzew Łódź, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Jagiellonia carry the stronger recent form of the two, 3.00 PPG clear of Widzew Łódź — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Jagiellonia are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 0.00 conceded per game recently; Widzew Łódź are on 1.00 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jagiellonia have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games; Widzew Łódź in 100%.
Defensively: Jagiellonia have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 1 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jagiellonia
Early Season
Widzew Łódź
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jagiellonia and Widzew Łódź in coming into this match?
Jagiellonia have gone 1W 0D 0L in their last 1 games (3.00 PPG), while Widzew Łódź have gone 0W 0D 1L in their last 1 (0.00 PPG).
Have Jagiellonia or Widzew Łódź been keeping clean sheets recently?
Jagiellonia have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their recent games, Widzew Łódź in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since July 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Jagiellonia go into this on the back of 6 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Jagiellonia have gone 3W 0D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Widzew Łódź — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
6
Jagiellonia
1
Draws
1
Widzew Łódź
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jagiellonia and Widzew Łódź?
From 8 meetings on record, Jagiellonia have won 6, Widzew Łódź have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Jagiellonia and Widzew Łódź last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when Widzew Łódź 1-3 Jagiellonia.
Who has won more matches between Jagiellonia and Widzew Łódź?
Jagiellonia have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jagiellonia home games / Widzew Łódź away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jagiellonia play Widzew Łódź?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Jagiellonia's recent matches and 100% of Widzew Łódź's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Jagiellonia vs Widzew Łódź usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Jagiellonia's recent games and 100% of Widzew Łódź's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Jagiellonia and Widzew Łódź tend to score early?
Jagiellonia have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Widzew Łódź in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Widzew Łódź cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Jagiellonia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Widzew Łódź beat Jagiellonia 0-2 at Stadion Miejski, Regular Season - 2, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jagiellonia 1.66 xG and Widzew Łódź 0.89 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Jagiellonia fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Widzew Łódź outscored their 0.89 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jagiellonia attack 1.10 / defence 0.89 against Widzew Łódź attack 0.84 / defence 1.17, drawn from 35/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Jagiellonia 54% | Draw 28% | Widzew Łódź 19%, with Jagiellonia to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a Widzew Łódź win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jagiellonia 0%, Widzew Łódź 100%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Jagiellonia arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 0.00. Form was overturned, with Widzew Łódź winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Jagiellonia managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Widzew Łódź scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.