Jagiellonia 0-0 Piast Gliwice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Jagiellonia at 65% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Jagiellonia vs Piast Gliwice encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ekstraklasa encounter, Regular Season - 16 sees Piast Gliwice travel to Stadion Miejski to take on Jagiellonia. The game is scheduled for Friday 24 November 2023, 19:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Jagiellonia stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W D L W D. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Jagiellonia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Jagiellonia's home record at Stadion Miejski: 8W 2D 0L from 10 Ekstraklasa appearances (2.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.80 — Jagiellonia are significantly better at Stadion Miejski than their overall form suggests.
Piast Gliwice — All Games: 1W 8D 1L from 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D D D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Piast Gliwice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Piast Gliwice have gone 1W 8D 1L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On current form, Jagiellonia have the edge — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 1.10) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Jagiellonia register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Piast Gliwice in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Jagiellonia, 1 for Piast Gliwice and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 3.2 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 29 Jan 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Jagiellonia trading profile (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Piast Gliwice trading profile (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jagiellonia 69% versus Piast Gliwice 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jagiellonia 59% | Piast Gliwice 26%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jagiellonia 2.14 xG and Piast Gliwice 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jagiellonia attack 1.532 / defence 0.779 | Piast Gliwice attack 0.948 / defence 0.969. League average goals — home 1.442 / away 1.160. Jagiellonia carry an above-average attack strength of 1.532 — their λ of 2.14 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Jagiellonia's defence rating of 0.779 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 49 Jagiellonia games / 49 Piast Gliwice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jagiellonia 65% | Draw 22% | Piast Gliwice 12%. Fair-value odds: Jagiellonia 1.54 | Draw 4.55 | Piast Gliwice 8.33. The model has a clear lean to Jagiellonia (65%) — a 53pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 3.00. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.00 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Jagiellonia at 65% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.00 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Jagiellonia 70% | Piast Gliwice 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jagiellonia vs Piast Gliwice | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Stadion Miejski • Kick-off: Friday 24 Nov 2023, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jagiellonia 65% | Draw 22% | Piast Gliwice 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 52% | xG Jagiellonia 2.14 / Piast Gliwice 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Jagiellonia attack 1.532 / def 0.779 | Piast Gliwice attack 0.948 / def 0.969 | league avg home 1.442 / away 1.160 • Poisson stance: Jagiellonia (65%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.14
Jagiellonia xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Piast Gliwice xG
52%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jagiellonia vs Piast Gliwice kick off?
Jagiellonia vs Piast Gliwice kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 24 November 2023 at Stadion Miejski.
What was the final score in Jagiellonia vs Piast Gliwice?
Jagiellonia 0 - 0 Piast Gliwice.
Where is Jagiellonia vs Piast Gliwice being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski.
What competition is Jagiellonia vs Piast Gliwice part of?
Jagiellonia vs Piast Gliwice is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Jagiellonia vs Piast Gliwice?
Our statistical model gives Jagiellonia a 65% chance of winning, Piast Gliwice a 12% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Jagiellonia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jagiellonia vs Piast Gliwice?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Jagiellonia and Piast Gliwice will score (BTTS).
Will Jagiellonia vs Piast Gliwice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jagiellonia and Piast Gliwice?
Record (4 meetings): Jagiellonia 1W | Draws 2 | Piast Gliwice 1W.
What form are Jagiellonia and Piast Gliwice in?
Jagiellonia (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-L-W-D. Piast Gliwice (all comps): 1W-8D-1L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Jagiellonia's attacking strength (1.53x league average) is weighed against Piast Gliwice's defensive record (0.97x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.14. The same calculation in reverse, Piast Gliwice's attack versus Jagiellonia's defence, projects 0.86 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 11.4%. Close behind: 1-1 (10.3%), 2-1 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jagiellonia Win
65%
1.53
22%
4.48
12%
8.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.14
Jagiellonia xG
Total xG
3.00
0.86
Piast Gliwice xG
1.53
65%
Home win
4.48
22%
Draw
8.11
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
42%
2.36
12%
8.51
Win to Nil
28%
3.61
1%
69.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 10.7 | 9.2 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.4 | 9.8 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 8.2 | 7.0 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 4.4 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jagiellonia vs Piast Gliwice?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are Jagiellonia and Piast Gliwice expected to score?
The model projects 2.14 expected goals for Jagiellonia and 0.86 for Piast Gliwice, a combined total of 3.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Jagiellonia vs Piast Gliwice?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 65%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 49 outings, Jagiellonia have picked up 1.45 PPG on a 18W 17D 14L record — W-D-L-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Jagiellonia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Piast Gliwice's form line: 16W 19D 14L from 49 games, 1.37 PPG, last five D-D-D-D-D. The sample for Piast Gliwice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Jagiellonia on 1.45 PPG, Piast Gliwice on 1.37. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Jagiellonia have posted 2.04 PPG from 24 outings (15W 4D 5L). That's noticeably better than their 1.45 PPG overall — Jagiellonia are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Piast Gliwice have gone 8W 11D 5L from 24 away games — 1.46 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Jagiellonia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Jagiellonia are averaging 1.71 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Piast Gliwice are on 1.04 scored and 0.94 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jagiellonia have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games.
Last 49 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jagiellonia
Blended
Piast Gliwice
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jagiellonia and Piast Gliwice in coming into this match?
Jagiellonia have gone 18W 17D 14L in their last 49 games (1.45 PPG), while Piast Gliwice have gone 16W 19D 14L in their last 49 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jagiellonia at home or Piast Gliwice away?
Jagiellonia's home record (2.04 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jagiellonia at home: 2.04 PPG; Piast Gliwice away: 1.46 PPG.
Have Jagiellonia or Piast Gliwice been keeping clean sheets recently?
Jagiellonia have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, Piast Gliwice in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Jagiellonia and Piast Gliwice runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Jagiellonia's record when hosting Piast Gliwice specifically: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Jagiellonia
6
Draws
2
Piast Gliwice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jagiellonia and Piast Gliwice?
From 10 meetings on record, Jagiellonia have won 2, Piast Gliwice have won 2, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Jagiellonia and Piast Gliwice last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when Jagiellonia 1-2 Piast Gliwice.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Jagiellonia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Piast Gliwice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jagiellonia 67%, Piast Gliwice 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Jagiellonia) and 17% (Piast Gliwice).
On the defensive side: Piast Gliwice in 33%; Piast Gliwice in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jagiellonia home games / Piast Gliwice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jagiellonia play Piast Gliwice?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Jagiellonia's games and 46% of Piast Gliwice's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jagiellonia vs Piast Gliwice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Jagiellonia's recent games and 17% of Piast Gliwice's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Jagiellonia and Piast Gliwice tend to score early?
Jagiellonia have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Piast Gliwice in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Jagiellonia's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion Miejski, Regular Season - 16, as Jagiellonia and Piast Gliwice drew 0-0 in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jagiellonia 2.14 xG and Piast Gliwice 0.86 xG, a combined 3.00. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Jagiellonia fell 2.1 short of their projected output. Piast Gliwice landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jagiellonia attack 1.53 / defence 0.78 against Piast Gliwice attack 0.95 / defence 0.97, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jagiellonia 65% | Draw 22% | Piast Gliwice 12%, with Jagiellonia to win its most likely call at 65%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jagiellonia 59%, Piast Gliwice 26%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jagiellonia's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not.
Piast Gliwice's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jagiellonia 1.45 PPG, Piast Gliwice 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Jagiellonia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.17 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.12 average — tighter than their form line. Piast Gliwice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.92 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.