Jagiellonia 1-2 Górnik Łęczna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Jagiellonia at 62% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Jagiellonia vs Górnik Łęczna encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ekstraklasa encounter, Regular Season - 17 sees Górnik Łęczna travel to Stadion Miejski to take on Jagiellonia. The game is scheduled for Saturday 4 December 2021, 16:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Jagiellonia stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L D D W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Jagiellonia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Jagiellonia have posted 4W 4D 1L at Stadion Miejski — 1.78 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Górnik Łęczna — All Games: 1W 4D 5L from 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L D D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Górnik Łęczna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Górnik Łęczna's away record: 0W 2D 5L from 7 road trips in Ekstraklasa this season (0.29 PPG). Away from home they average 0.71 goals scored and 2.29 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 71% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, Jagiellonia have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.30 vs 0.70) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Jagiellonia register both teams scoring in 67% of relevant matches, Górnik Łęczna in 71% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Profile
Jagiellonia in-play tendencies (16 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
Górnik Łęczna in-play tendencies (16 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Jagiellonia 62% and Górnik Łęczna 69% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jagiellonia 50% | Górnik Łęczna 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jagiellonia 2.07 xG and Górnik Łęczna 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jagiellonia attack 1.156 / defence 1.183 | Górnik Łęczna attack 0.697 / defence 1.453. League average goals — home 1.230 / away 1.185. Górnik Łęczna bring a strong defensive rating of 1.453 — this is suppressing Jagiellonia's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 16 Jagiellonia games / 16 Górnik Łęczna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jagiellonia 62% | Draw 20% | Górnik Łęczna 17%. Fair-value odds: Jagiellonia 1.61 | Draw 5.00 | Górnik Łęczna 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Jagiellonia (62%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 3.04. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.04 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Jagiellonia as the most likely outcome at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.04 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate: Jagiellonia 67% | Górnik Łęczna 71% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jagiellonia vs Górnik Łęczna | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Stadion Miejski • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Dec 2021, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jagiellonia 62% | Draw 20% | Górnik Łęczna 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 54% | xG Jagiellonia 2.07 / Górnik Łęczna 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Jagiellonia attack 1.156 / def 1.183 | Górnik Łęczna attack 0.697 / def 1.453 | league avg home 1.230 / away 1.185 • Poisson stance: Jagiellonia (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.07
Jagiellonia xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Górnik Łęczna xG
54%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jagiellonia vs Górnik Łęczna kick off?
Jagiellonia vs Górnik Łęczna kicked off at 16:30 on Saturday 4 December 2021 at Stadion Miejski.
What was the final score in Jagiellonia vs Górnik Łęczna?
Jagiellonia 1 - 2 Górnik Łęczna.
Where is Jagiellonia vs Górnik Łęczna being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski.
What competition is Jagiellonia vs Górnik Łęczna part of?
Jagiellonia vs Górnik Łęczna is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Jagiellonia vs Górnik Łęczna?
Our statistical model gives Jagiellonia a 62% chance of winning, Górnik Łęczna a 17% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Jagiellonia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jagiellonia vs Górnik Łęczna?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Jagiellonia and Górnik Łęczna will score (BTTS).
Will Jagiellonia vs Górnik Łęczna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jagiellonia and Górnik Łęczna?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Jagiellonia and Górnik Łęczna in?
Jagiellonia (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-D-W-L. Górnik Łęczna (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-D-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Jagiellonia's attacking strength (1.16x league average) is weighed against Górnik Łęczna's defensive record (1.45x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.07. The same calculation in reverse, Górnik Łęczna's attack versus Jagiellonia's defence, projects 0.98 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 16/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.9%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.2%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jagiellonia Win
62%
1.60
20%
4.88
17%
5.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.07
Jagiellonia xG
Total xG
3.04
0.98
Górnik Łęczna xG
1.60
62%
Home win
4.88
20%
Draw
5.87
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
38%
2.66
13%
7.89
Win to Nil
23%
4.26
2%
46.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 4.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 9.8 | 9.6 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 9.9 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.0 | 6.8 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jagiellonia vs Górnik Łęczna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are Jagiellonia and Górnik Łęczna expected to score?
The model projects 2.07 expected goals for Jagiellonia and 0.98 for Górnik Łęczna, a combined total of 3.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Jagiellonia vs Górnik Łęczna?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Jagiellonia come into this having played 16 games, going 5W 6D 5L for 1.31 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-W-L. The sample for Jagiellonia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Górnik Łęczna sit at 0.56 PPG from 16 outings (1W 6D 9L), a run that reads L-D-D-D-L across their last five. The sample for Górnik Łęczna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Jagiellonia carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.75 PPG clear of Górnik Łęczna — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Jagiellonia's home form reads 3W 3D 1L across 7 games on their own ground, a 1.71 PPG return.
Away from home, Górnik Łęczna have taken 0.29 points per game from 7 outings (0W 2D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Jagiellonia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Jagiellonia are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Górnik Łęczna are on 0.81 scored and 2.12 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jagiellonia have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Górnik Łęczna in 69%.
Last 16 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jagiellonia
Blended
Górnik Łęczna
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jagiellonia and Górnik Łęczna in coming into this match?
Jagiellonia have gone 5W 6D 5L in their last 16 games (1.31 PPG), while Górnik Łęczna have gone 1W 6D 9L in their last 16 (0.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jagiellonia at home or Górnik Łęczna away?
Jagiellonia's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jagiellonia at home: 1.71 PPG; Górnik Łęczna away: 0.29 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Jagiellonia and Górnik Łęczna runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 21 May 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Jagiellonia
0
Draws
1
Górnik Łęczna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jagiellonia and Górnik Łęczna?
From 2 meetings on record, Jagiellonia have won 1, Górnik Łęczna have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Jagiellonia and Górnik Łęczna last play each other?
They last met on 21 May 2022, when Górnik Łęczna 0-1 Jagiellonia.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Jagiellonia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Górnik Łęczna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Jagiellonia at 71%, Górnik Łęczna at 71%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Jagiellonia) and 57% (Górnik Łęczna).
On the defensive side: Górnik Łęczna in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jagiellonia home games / Górnik Łęczna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jagiellonia play Górnik Łęczna?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Jagiellonia's games and 71% of Górnik Łęczna's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jagiellonia vs Górnik Łęczna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Jagiellonia's recent games and 57% of Górnik Łęczna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Jagiellonia and Górnik Łęczna tend to score early?
Jagiellonia have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Górnik Łęczna in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Górnik Łęczna defy the odds to beat Jagiellonia 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Górnik Łęczna beat Jagiellonia 1-2 at Stadion Miejski, Regular Season - 17, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jagiellonia 2.07 xG and Górnik Łęczna 0.98 xG, a combined 3.04. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Jagiellonia fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Górnik Łęczna outscored their 0.98 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jagiellonia attack 1.16 / defence 1.18 against Górnik Łęczna attack 0.70 / defence 1.45, drawn from 16/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jagiellonia 62% | Draw 20% | Górnik Łęczna 17%, with Jagiellonia to win its most likely call at 62%. Instead the game produced a Górnik Łęczna win, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jagiellonia 50%, Górnik Łęczna 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jagiellonia's trading profile (16 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Górnik Łęczna's trading profile (16 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Jagiellonia arrived the stronger side — 1.31 PPG against 0.56. Form was overturned, with Górnik Łęczna winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Górnik Łęczna (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.71 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.29 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.