Gornik Zabrze 1-3 Stal Mielec – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Gornik Zabrze at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Gornik Zabrze vs Stal Mielec fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ekstraklasa encounter, Regular Season - 5 sees Stal Mielec travel to Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla to take on Gornik Zabrze. The game is scheduled for Saturday 13 August 2022, 16:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Gornik Zabrze — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: W W L W W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Gornik Zabrze have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Gornik Zabrze at Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Stal Mielec have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Stal Mielec have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Stal Mielec have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On current form, Gornik Zabrze have the edge — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.60 vs 1.10) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Gornik Zabrze register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Stal Mielec in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Gornik Zabrze, 0 for Stal Mielec and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Feb 2022, ended 2–1 with Gornik Zabrze winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Gornik Zabrze in-play tendencies (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Stal Mielec in-play tendencies (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Gornik Zabrze 65% and Stal Mielec 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gornik Zabrze 62% | Stal Mielec 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gornik Zabrze 1.41 xG and Stal Mielec 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gornik Zabrze attack 0.940 / defence 0.998 | Stal Mielec attack 1.122 / defence 1.175. League average goals — home 1.272 / away 1.189. Data: 37 Gornik Zabrze games / 38 Stal Mielec games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gornik Zabrze 39% | Draw 26% | Stal Mielec 35%. Fair-value odds: Gornik Zabrze 2.56 | Draw 3.85 | Stal Mielec 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Gornik Zabrze are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Gornik Zabrze offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.74 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate: Gornik Zabrze 60% | Stal Mielec 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gornik Zabrze vs Stal Mielec | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Aug 2022, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gornik Zabrze 39% | Draw 26% | Stal Mielec 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 56% | xG Gornik Zabrze 1.41 / Stal Mielec 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Gornik Zabrze attack 0.940 / def 0.998 | Stal Mielec attack 1.122 / def 1.175 | league avg home 1.272 / away 1.189 • Poisson stance: Gornik Zabrze (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Gornik Zabrze xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Stal Mielec xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gornik Zabrze vs Stal Mielec kick off?
Gornik Zabrze vs Stal Mielec kicked off at 16:30 on Saturday 13 August 2022 at Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla.
What was the final score in Gornik Zabrze vs Stal Mielec?
Gornik Zabrze 1 - 3 Stal Mielec.
Where is Gornik Zabrze vs Stal Mielec being played?
The match is being played at Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla.
What competition is Gornik Zabrze vs Stal Mielec part of?
Gornik Zabrze vs Stal Mielec is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Gornik Zabrze vs Stal Mielec?
Our statistical model gives Gornik Zabrze a 39% chance of winning, Stal Mielec a 35% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Gornik Zabrze the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gornik Zabrze vs Stal Mielec?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Gornik Zabrze and Stal Mielec will score (BTTS).
Will Gornik Zabrze vs Stal Mielec have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gornik Zabrze and Stal Mielec?
Record (2 meetings): Gornik Zabrze 2W | Draws 0 | Stal Mielec 0W.
What form are Gornik Zabrze and Stal Mielec in?
Gornik Zabrze (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-W-L-W-W. Stal Mielec (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Gornik Zabrze's attack at 0.94x the league average against Stal Mielec's defence at 1.18x — combine the two and it projects 1.41 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Stal Mielec's attack versus Gornik Zabrze's defence, projects 1.33 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gornik Zabrze Win
39%
2.57
26%
3.91
35%
2.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
0 – 1
8.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Gornik Zabrze xG
Total xG
2.74
1.33
Stal Mielec xG
2.57
39%
Home win
3.91
26%
Draw
2.82
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
26%
3.78
25%
4.08
Win to Nil
10%
9.73
9%
11.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 8.6 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 12.1 | 8.1 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 8.5 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gornik Zabrze vs Stal Mielec?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Gornik Zabrze and Stal Mielec expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Gornik Zabrze and 1.33 for Stal Mielec, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Gornik Zabrze vs Stal Mielec?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 37 outings, Gornik Zabrze have picked up 1.43 PPG on a 15W 8D 14L record — W-W-L-W-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Gornik Zabrze, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Stal Mielec's form line: 11W 10D 16L from 37 games, 1.16 PPG, last five L-W-D-L-W. It's still early in the season for Stal Mielec, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Gornik Zabrze on 1.43 PPG, Stal Mielec on 1.16. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Gornik Zabrze have posted 1.61 PPG from 18 outings (8W 5D 5L).
On the road, Stal Mielec have gone 3W 5D 10L from 18 away games — 0.78 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Gornik Zabrze come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Gornik Zabrze are averaging 1.59 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game recently; Stal Mielec are on 1.22 scored and 1.49 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Gornik Zabrze have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 37 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gornik Zabrze
Early Season
Stal Mielec
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gornik Zabrze and Stal Mielec in coming into this match?
Gornik Zabrze have gone 15W 8D 14L in their last 37 games (1.43 PPG), while Stal Mielec have gone 11W 10D 16L in their last 37 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gornik Zabrze at home or Stal Mielec away?
Gornik Zabrze's home record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gornik Zabrze at home: 1.61 PPG; Stal Mielec away: 0.78 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Gornik Zabrze and Stal Mielec runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Gornik Zabrze's record when hosting Stal Mielec specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Gornik Zabrze
2
Draws
2
Stal Mielec
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gornik Zabrze and Stal Mielec?
From 8 meetings on record, Gornik Zabrze have won 4, Stal Mielec have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Gornik Zabrze and Stal Mielec last play each other?
They last met on 22 April 2025, when Stal Mielec 0-0 Gornik Zabrze.
Who has won more matches between Gornik Zabrze and Stal Mielec?
Gornik Zabrze have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Gornik Zabrze are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Stal Mielec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gornik Zabrze 50%, Stal Mielec 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Gornik Zabrze) and 56% (Stal Mielec).
On the defensive side: Gornik Zabrze keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Gornik Zabrze have failed to score in 28% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gornik Zabrze home games / Stal Mielec away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gornik Zabrze play Stal Mielec?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Gornik Zabrze's games and 67% of Stal Mielec's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Gornik Zabrze vs Stal Mielec usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Gornik Zabrze's recent games and 56% of Stal Mielec's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gornik Zabrze and Stal Mielec tend to score early?
Gornik Zabrze have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Stal Mielec in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stal Mielec cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Gornik Zabrze.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stal Mielec beat Gornik Zabrze 1-3 at Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla, Regular Season - 5, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gornik Zabrze 1.41 xG and Stal Mielec 1.33 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Stal Mielec outscored their 1.33 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gornik Zabrze attack 0.94 / defence 1.00 against Stal Mielec attack 1.12 / defence 1.18, drawn from 37/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gornik Zabrze 39% | Draw 26% | Stal Mielec 35%, with Gornik Zabrze to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Stal Mielec win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gornik Zabrze 62%, Stal Mielec 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gornik Zabrze's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Stal Mielec's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gornik Zabrze 1.43 PPG, Stal Mielec 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Stal Mielec win broke the near-deadlock. Gornik Zabrze (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Stal Mielec (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.