Gornik Zabrze 0-0 Radomiak Radom – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Radomiak Radom at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Gornik Zabrze vs Radomiak Radom fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Radomiak Radom make the trip to Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla to face Gornik Zabrze in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 20. The match kicks off on Sunday 12 February 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Gornik Zabrze have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: W L L L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Gornik Zabrze, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Gornik Zabrze's form when playing at home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 games at Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla this term (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Radomiak Radom (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: L W L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Radomiak Radom, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Radomiak Radom's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
On a straight form reading, Radomiak Radom are the stronger side — 0.50 PPG clear of the hosts (1.30 vs 0.80). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Gornik Zabrze 1W, Radomiak Radom 0W, 1D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.5 per game from 2 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Jul 2022, ended 3–0 with Gornik Zabrze winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Gornik Zabrze — key trading statistics (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Radomiak Radom — key trading statistics (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gornik Zabrze 68% versus Radomiak Radom 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gornik Zabrze 64% | Radomiak Radom 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gornik Zabrze 1.07 xG and Radomiak Radom 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gornik Zabrze attack 1.047 / defence 1.212 | Radomiak Radom attack 0.878 / defence 0.863. League average goals — home 1.190 / away 1.147. Data: 53 Gornik Zabrze games / 53 Radomiak Radom games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gornik Zabrze 31% | Draw 31% | Radomiak Radom 38%. Fair-value odds: Gornik Zabrze 3.23 | Draw 3.23 | Radomiak Radom 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Radomiak Radom as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Radomiak Radom if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.29 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Gornik Zabrze 60% | Radomiak Radom 50%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gornik Zabrze vs Radomiak Radom | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Feb 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gornik Zabrze 31% | Draw 31% | Radomiak Radom 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 48% | xG Gornik Zabrze 1.07 / Radomiak Radom 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Gornik Zabrze attack 1.047 / def 1.212 | Radomiak Radom attack 0.878 / def 0.863 | league avg home 1.190 / away 1.147 • Poisson stance: Radomiak Radom (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
Gornik Zabrze xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Radomiak Radom xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gornik Zabrze vs Radomiak Radom kick off?
Gornik Zabrze vs Radomiak Radom kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 12 February 2023 at Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla.
What was the final score in Gornik Zabrze vs Radomiak Radom?
Gornik Zabrze 0 - 0 Radomiak Radom.
Where is Gornik Zabrze vs Radomiak Radom being played?
The match is being played at Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla.
What competition is Gornik Zabrze vs Radomiak Radom part of?
Gornik Zabrze vs Radomiak Radom is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Gornik Zabrze vs Radomiak Radom?
Our statistical model gives Gornik Zabrze a 31% chance of winning, Radomiak Radom a 38% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Radomiak Radom the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gornik Zabrze vs Radomiak Radom?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Gornik Zabrze and Radomiak Radom will score (BTTS).
Will Gornik Zabrze vs Radomiak Radom have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gornik Zabrze and Radomiak Radom?
Record (2 meetings): Gornik Zabrze 1W | Draws 1 | Radomiak Radom 0W.
What form are Gornik Zabrze and Radomiak Radom in?
Gornik Zabrze (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-L-L-D. Radomiak Radom (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Gornik Zabrze's attack rating (1.05) and Radomiak Radom's defence rating (0.86), the model arrives at 1.07 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Radomiak Radom's attack (0.88x) against Gornik Zabrze's defence (1.21x) — and the away total comes out at 1.22.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.8%), 0-1 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Radomiak Radom Win
31%
3.26
31%
3.18
38%
2.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.3%
Away win
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
Gornik Zabrze xG
Total xG
2.29
1.22
Radomiak Radom xG
3.26
31%
Home win
3.18
31%
Draw
2.64
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
30%
3.39
34%
2.93
Win to Nil
9%
11.05
13%
7.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 12.3 | 7.5 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 13.2 | 8.1 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 7.1 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gornik Zabrze vs Radomiak Radom?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Gornik Zabrze and Radomiak Radom expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Gornik Zabrze and 1.22 for Radomiak Radom, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Gornik Zabrze vs Radomiak Radom?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Gornik Zabrze's recent record stands at 18W 14D 21L from 53 games, a 1.28 PPG return, with W-L-L-L-D in the last five. The sample for Gornik Zabrze is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Radomiak Radom, meanwhile, have gone 19W 18D 16L across 53 games — 1.42 PPG, with L-W-L-D-W in their last five. The sample for Radomiak Radom is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.28 PPG for Gornik Zabrze against 1.42 for Radomiak Radom. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Gornik Zabrze have managed 9W 8D 9L from 26 games — 1.35 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Radomiak Radom's away record stands at 8W 10D 8L across 26 trips, a 1.31 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Gornik Zabrze are averaging 1.55 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Radomiak Radom are on 1.21 scored and 1.19 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Gornik Zabrze have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games.
Last 53 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gornik Zabrze
Blended
Radomiak Radom
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gornik Zabrze and Radomiak Radom in coming into this match?
Gornik Zabrze have gone 18W 14D 21L in their last 53 games (1.28 PPG), while Radomiak Radom have gone 19W 18D 16L in their last 53 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gornik Zabrze at home or Radomiak Radom away?
Gornik Zabrze's home record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gornik Zabrze at home: 1.35 PPG; Radomiak Radom away: 1.31 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. The two were last together as recently as 8 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Gornik Zabrze have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Radomiak Radom won 4-0 on 28 Nov 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Gornik Zabrze have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Radomiak Radom — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Gornik Zabrze
3
Draws
2
Radomiak Radom
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gornik Zabrze and Radomiak Radom?
From 10 meetings on record, Gornik Zabrze have won 5, Radomiak Radom have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Gornik Zabrze and Radomiak Radom last play each other?
They last met on 8 August 2026, when Radomiak Radom 1-3 Gornik Zabrze.
Who has won more matches between Gornik Zabrze and Radomiak Radom?
Gornik Zabrze have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Gornik Zabrze are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Radomiak Radom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gornik Zabrze 58%, Radomiak Radom 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Gornik Zabrze) and 38% (Radomiak Radom).
On the defensive side: Radomiak Radom in 31%; Radomiak Radom in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gornik Zabrze home games / Radomiak Radom away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gornik Zabrze play Radomiak Radom?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Gornik Zabrze's recent matches and 42% of Radomiak Radom's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Gornik Zabrze vs Radomiak Radom usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Gornik Zabrze's recent games and 38% of Radomiak Radom's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gornik Zabrze and Radomiak Radom tend to score early?
Gornik Zabrze have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Radomiak Radom in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Gornik Zabrze's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla, Regular Season - 20, as Gornik Zabrze and Radomiak Radom drew 0-0 in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gornik Zabrze 1.07 xG and Radomiak Radom 1.22 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Gornik Zabrze fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Radomiak Radom landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gornik Zabrze attack 1.05 / defence 1.21 against Radomiak Radom attack 0.88 / defence 0.86, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gornik Zabrze 31% | Draw 31% | Radomiak Radom 38%, with Radomiak Radom to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gornik Zabrze 64%, Radomiak Radom 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gornik Zabrze's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.
Radomiak Radom's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gornik Zabrze 1.28 PPG, Radomiak Radom 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Gornik Zabrze (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.46 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line. Radomiak Radom (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.96 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.04 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.