Gornik Zabrze vs Radomiak Radom – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Gornik Zabrze (60%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Gornik Zabrze face Radomiak Radom.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Radomiak Radom make the trip to Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla to face Gornik Zabrze in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 20. The match kicks off on Saturday 6 February 2027 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Gornik Zabrze have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 5W 4D 1L. Last five: D W D D D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Gornik Zabrze, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Gornik Zabrze's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla this term (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Radomiak Radom (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this term — 0.80 points per game. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Radomiak Radom, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Radomiak Radom's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 1.10 in Gornik Zabrze's favour (1.90 vs 0.80) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Across 10 previous meetings, Gornik Zabrze are the stronger side on paper — 5 victories to 2, with 3 draws in between.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.1 per game across 10 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 8 Aug 2026, ended 3–1 with Gornik Zabrze winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Gornik Zabrze and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 10 meetings, combined with an average of 3.1 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading & In-Play
Gornik Zabrze — key trading statistics (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games).
Radomiak Radom — key trading statistics (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Gornik Zabrze 55% and Radomiak Radom 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gornik Zabrze 49% | Radomiak Radom 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gornik Zabrze 2.09 xG and Radomiak Radom 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gornik Zabrze attack 0.948 / defence 0.883 | Radomiak Radom attack 0.896 / defence 1.375. League average goals — home 1.606 / away 1.292. Radomiak Radom bring a strong defensive rating of 1.375 — this is suppressing Gornik Zabrze's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 47 Gornik Zabrze games / 47 Radomiak Radom games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gornik Zabrze 60% | Draw 24% | Radomiak Radom 16%. Fair-value odds: Gornik Zabrze 1.67 | Draw 4.17 | Radomiak Radom 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Gornik Zabrze (60%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.11. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.11 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Gornik Zabrze as the most likely outcome at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.11 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.1 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Gornik Zabrze 60% | Radomiak Radom 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gornik Zabrze vs Radomiak Radom | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Feb 2027, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gornik Zabrze 60% | Draw 24% | Radomiak Radom 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 58% | xG Gornik Zabrze 2.09 / Radomiak Radom 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Gornik Zabrze attack 0.948 / def 0.883 | Radomiak Radom attack 0.896 / def 1.375 | league avg home 1.606 / away 1.292 • Poisson stance: Gornik Zabrze (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.09
Gornik Zabrze xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Radomiak Radom xG
58%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gornik Zabrze vs Radomiak Radom kick off?
Gornik Zabrze vs Radomiak Radom is scheduled to kick off at 17:00 on Saturday 6 February 2027 at Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla.
Where is Gornik Zabrze vs Radomiak Radom being played?
The match is being played at Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla.
What competition is Gornik Zabrze vs Radomiak Radom part of?
Gornik Zabrze vs Radomiak Radom is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Gornik Zabrze vs Radomiak Radom?
Our statistical model gives Gornik Zabrze a 60% chance of winning, Radomiak Radom a 16% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Gornik Zabrze the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gornik Zabrze vs Radomiak Radom?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Gornik Zabrze and Radomiak Radom will score (BTTS).
Will Gornik Zabrze vs Radomiak Radom have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gornik Zabrze and Radomiak Radom?
Record (10 meetings): Gornik Zabrze 5W | Draws 3 | Radomiak Radom 2W.
What form are Gornik Zabrze and Radomiak Radom in?
Gornik Zabrze (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-D-D-D. Radomiak Radom (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Gornik Zabrze's attack rating (0.95) and Radomiak Radom's defence rating (1.38), the model arrives at 2.09 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Radomiak Radom's attack (0.90x) against Gornik Zabrze's defence (0.88x) — and the away total comes out at 1.02.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gornik Zabrze Win
60%
1.66
24%
4.19
16%
6.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
9.7%
Home win
1 – 1
9.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.09
Gornik Zabrze xG
Total xG
3.11
1.02
Radomiak Radom xG
1.66
60%
Home win
4.19
24%
Draw
6.31
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.37
Clean Sheet
36%
2.78
12%
8.12
Win to Nil
22%
4.61
2%
51.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 4.5 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 9.3 | 9.5 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 9.9 | 5.1 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.8 | 6.9 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gornik Zabrze vs Radomiak Radom?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.7%.
How many goals are Gornik Zabrze and Radomiak Radom expected to score?
The model projects 2.09 expected goals for Gornik Zabrze and 1.02 for Radomiak Radom, a combined total of 3.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Gornik Zabrze vs Radomiak Radom?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Gornik Zabrze's recent record stands at 24W 12D 11L from 47 games, a 1.79 PPG return, with D-W-D-D-D in the last five. The sample for Gornik Zabrze is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Radomiak Radom, meanwhile, have gone 14W 13D 20L across 47 games — 1.17 PPG, with L-L-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Radomiak Radom is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Gornik Zabrze by 0.62 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Radomiak Radom heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Gornik Zabrze have managed 14W 3D 6L from 23 games — 1.96 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Radomiak Radom's away record stands at 2W 8D 13L across 23 trips, a 0.61 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.17 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Radomiak Radom's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Gornik Zabrze come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Gornik Zabrze are averaging 1.51 goals scored and 1.04 conceded per game recently; Radomiak Radom are on 1.43 scored and 1.74 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Radomiak Radom in 68%.
Last 47 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gornik Zabrze
Blended
Radomiak Radom
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gornik Zabrze and Radomiak Radom in coming into this match?
Gornik Zabrze have gone 24W 12D 11L in their last 47 games (1.79 PPG), while Radomiak Radom have gone 14W 13D 20L in their last 47 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gornik Zabrze at home or Radomiak Radom away?
Gornik Zabrze's home record (1.96 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gornik Zabrze at home: 1.96 PPG; Radomiak Radom away: 0.61 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 8 August 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Gornik Zabrze have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Radomiak Radom won 4-0 on 28 Nov 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Gornik Zabrze have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Radomiak Radom — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Gornik Zabrze
3
Draws
2
Radomiak Radom
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gornik Zabrze and Radomiak Radom?
From 10 meetings on record, Gornik Zabrze have won 5, Radomiak Radom have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Gornik Zabrze and Radomiak Radom last play each other?
They last met on 8 August 2026, when Radomiak Radom 1-3 Gornik Zabrze.
Who has won more matches between Gornik Zabrze and Radomiak Radom?
Gornik Zabrze have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Gornik Zabrze are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Radomiak Radom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gornik Zabrze 61%, Radomiak Radom 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 61% for Gornik Zabrze and 61% for Radomiak Radom. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 26% and 52% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Gornik Zabrze have failed to score in 26% of games; Radomiak Radom in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gornik Zabrze home games / Radomiak Radom away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gornik Zabrze play Radomiak Radom?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Gornik Zabrze's games and 65% of Radomiak Radom's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Gornik Zabrze vs Radomiak Radom usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Gornik Zabrze's matches and 61% of Radomiak Radom's.
Do Gornik Zabrze and Radomiak Radom tend to score early?
Gornik Zabrze have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Radomiak Radom in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.