Gornik Zabrze 2-1 Piast Gliwice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Gornik Zabrze at 43% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Gornik Zabrze face Piast Gliwice.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Gornik Zabrze welcome Piast Gliwice to Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla in Ekstraklasa (matchday 19). Kick-off is Saturday 31 January 2026 at 13:45 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Gornik Zabrze have gone 4W 3D 3L — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: W L D L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
In front of their own supporters, Gornik Zabrze have posted 6W 2D 2L from their last 10 home games — 2.00 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Gornik Zabrze are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Piast Gliwice stand at 5W 1D 4L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Piast Gliwice away from home: 3W 2D 5L from their last 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Gornik Zabrze at 1.50 PPG versus Piast Gliwice's 1.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 8 H2H matches we hold have produced 3 wins for Gornik Zabrze, 2 for Piast Gliwice and 3 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 8 H2H matches in our data averaged 1.9 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 26 Jul 2025, ended Gornik Zabrze 1–0 Piast Gliwice — a Gornik Zabrze win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Gornik Zabrze trading profile (last 51 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Piast Gliwice trading profile (last 51 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gornik Zabrze 51% versus Piast Gliwice 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gornik Zabrze 49% | Piast Gliwice 35%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gornik Zabrze 1.58 xG and Piast Gliwice 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gornik Zabrze attack 1.160 / defence 0.971 | Piast Gliwice attack 1.103 / defence 0.853. League average goals — home 1.594 / away 1.197. Data: built from Gornik Zabrze's last 52 games and Piast Gliwice's last 51.
Result probabilities: Gornik Zabrze 43% | Draw 27% | Piast Gliwice 30%. Fair-value odds: Gornik Zabrze 2.33 | Draw 3.64 | Piast Gliwice 3.37. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS Yes probability 59% | Total xG 2.86. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.86 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 59% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Gornik Zabrze at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Gornik Zabrze offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.86 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging only 1.9 goals per game across 8 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Gornik Zabrze 70% (last 10 home games) | Piast Gliwice 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gornik Zabrze vs Piast Gliwice | Competition: Ekstraklasa, matchday 19 | Venue: Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla • Kick-off: Saturday 31 January 2026 at 13:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gornik Zabrze 43% | Draw 27% | Piast Gliwice 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% (Under 46%) | BTTS Yes 59% (No 41%) | xG Gornik Zabrze 1.58 / Piast Gliwice 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Gornik Zabrze attack 1.160 / def 0.971 | Piast Gliwice attack 1.103 / def 0.853 | league avg home 1.594 / away 1.197 • Poisson stance: Gornik Zabrze (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
Gornik Zabrze xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Piast Gliwice xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Gornik Zabrze vs Piast Gliwice FAQs
What time does Gornik Zabrze vs Piast Gliwice kick off?
Gornik Zabrze vs Piast Gliwice kicked off at 13:45 UK time on Saturday 31 January 2026 at Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla.
What was the final score in Gornik Zabrze vs Piast Gliwice?
Gornik Zabrze 2 - 1 Piast Gliwice.
Where is Gornik Zabrze vs Piast Gliwice being played?
The match is being played at Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla.
What competition is Gornik Zabrze vs Piast Gliwice part of?
Gornik Zabrze vs Piast Gliwice is a Ekstraklasa fixture (matchday 19) (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Gornik Zabrze vs Piast Gliwice?
Our statistical model gives Gornik Zabrze a 43% chance of winning, Piast Gliwice a 30% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Gornik Zabrze the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gornik Zabrze vs Piast Gliwice?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Gornik Zabrze and Piast Gliwice will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Gornik Zabrze vs Piast Gliwice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Gornik Zabrze's attack at 1.16x the league average against Piast Gliwice's defence at 0.85x — combine the two and it projects 1.58 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Piast Gliwice's attack versus Gornik Zabrze's defence, projects 1.28 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Gornik Zabrze's last 52 games and Piast Gliwice's last 51 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-0 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Gornik Zabrze Win
43%
2.33
27%
3.64
30%
3.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
Gornik Zabrze xG
Total xG
2.86
1.28
Piast Gliwice xG
2.33
43%
Home win
3.64
27%
Draw
3.37
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.42
Clean Sheet
28%
3.60
21%
4.84
Win to Nil
12%
8.41
6%
16.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 7.3 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 11.6 | 7.4 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 9.1 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.8 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Gornik Zabrze vs Piast Gliwice Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Gornik Zabrze vs Piast Gliwice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Gornik Zabrze and Piast Gliwice expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Gornik Zabrze and 1.28 for Piast Gliwice, a combined total of 2.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Gornik Zabrze vs Piast Gliwice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 51 outings, Gornik Zabrze have picked up 1.51 PPG on a 22W 11D 18L record — W-L-D-L-L across the most recent five.
Piast Gliwice's form line: 16W 17D 18L from 51 games, 1.27 PPG, last five W-W-L-W-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Gornik Zabrze on 1.51 PPG, Piast Gliwice on 1.27. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Gornik Zabrze have posted 1.81 PPG from their last 26 home games (14W 5D 7L).
On the road, Piast Gliwice have gone 9W 6D 11L from their last 26 away games — 1.27 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Gornik Zabrze come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Gornik Zabrze are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Piast Gliwice are on 1.10 scored and 1.08 conceded.
Last 51 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gornik Zabrze
Blended
Piast Gliwice
Blended
Gornik Zabrze (Home) vs Piast Gliwice (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Gornik Zabrze
Blended
Piast Gliwice
Blended
❓ Gornik Zabrze vs Piast Gliwice Form FAQs
What form are Gornik Zabrze and Piast Gliwice in coming into this match?
Gornik Zabrze have gone 22W 11D 18L in their last 51 games (1.51 PPG), while Piast Gliwice have gone 16W 17D 18L in their last 51 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gornik Zabrze at home or Piast Gliwice away?
Gornik Zabrze's home record (1.81 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gornik Zabrze at home: 1.81 PPG; Piast Gliwice away: 1.27 PPG.
Have Gornik Zabrze or Piast Gliwice been keeping clean sheets recently?
Gornik Zabrze have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Piast Gliwice in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to February 2022. All of them came in Ekstraklasa. The most recent was as recently as 18 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
Gornik Zabrze's record when hosting Piast Gliwice specifically: 2W 3D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Gornik Zabrze
4
Draws
2
Piast Gliwice
Recent Meetings
❓ Gornik Zabrze vs Piast Gliwice H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Gornik Zabrze and Piast Gliwice?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Gornik Zabrze have won 4, Piast Gliwice have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Gornik Zabrze and Piast Gliwice last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 18 October 2026: Gornik Zabrze 1-1 Piast Gliwice.
Who has won more matches between Gornik Zabrze and Piast Gliwice?
Gornik Zabrze have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Gornik Zabrze are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Piast Gliwice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gornik Zabrze 50%, Piast Gliwice 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Gornik Zabrze) and 38% (Piast Gliwice).
On the defensive side: Gornik Zabrze keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Gornik Zabrze have failed to score in 27% of games; Piast Gliwice in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gornik Zabrze home games / Piast Gliwice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Gornik Zabrze vs Piast Gliwice Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Gornik Zabrze and Piast Gliwice matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Gornik Zabrze's recent matches and 50% of Piast Gliwice's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Gornik Zabrze and Piast Gliwice matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Gornik Zabrze's recent games and 38% of Piast Gliwice's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gornik Zabrze and Piast Gliwice matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 65% of Gornik Zabrze's recent matches and 69% of Piast Gliwice's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Gornik Zabrze edge out Piast Gliwice 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gornik Zabrze beat Piast Gliwice 2-1 at Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla, Regular Season - 19, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gornik Zabrze 1.58 xG and Piast Gliwice 1.28 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gornik Zabrze attack 1.16 / defence 0.97 against Piast Gliwice attack 1.10 / defence 0.85, drawn from 52/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gornik Zabrze 43% | Draw 27% | Piast Gliwice 30%, with Gornik Zabrze to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gornik Zabrze 49%, Piast Gliwice 35%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gornik Zabrze's trading profile (51 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Piast Gliwice's trading profile (51 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gornik Zabrze 1.51 PPG, Piast Gliwice 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Gornik Zabrze win broke the near-deadlock. Piast Gliwice (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.