Gornik Zabrze vs Cracovia Krakow Prediction & Preview
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Poisson rates Gornik Zabrze at 53% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Gornik Zabrze vs Cracovia Krakow encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla plays host to Gornik Zabrze versus Cracovia Krakow in Ekstraklasa (matchday 24). Kick-off: Saturday 6 March 2027 at 17:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Gornik Zabrze have collected 2.20 PPG across their last 10 games: 6W 4D 0L. Last five: W D D D W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Gornik Zabrze at home: 6W 2D 2L from their last 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Cracovia Krakow's record over their last 10 games: 2W 1D 7L (0.70 PPG). Last five: W D L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
On the road, Cracovia Krakow have gone 0W 4D 6L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form favours the hosts. Gornik Zabrze's 2.20 PPG return is 1.50 points per game ahead of Cracovia Krakow's 0.70 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (from Gornik Zabrze's last 10 home games and Cracovia Krakow's last 10 away games) — both teams have scored in 70% of Gornik Zabrze's games and 70% of Cracovia Krakow's. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 10 H2H matches in our data, Cracovia Krakow edge it 5 wins to 4, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
The 10 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 6 Sep 2026, ended Gornik Zabrze 1–0 Cracovia Krakow — a Gornik Zabrze win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Data
Gornik Zabrze goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 48 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Cracovia Krakow goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 48 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 54% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gornik Zabrze 56% versus Cracovia Krakow 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gornik Zabrze 50% | Cracovia Krakow 52%). Note also that Cracovia Krakow surrender HT leads in 38% of cases while Gornik Zabrze recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 33% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gornik Zabrze 1.75 xG and Cracovia Krakow 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gornik Zabrze attack 0.968 / defence 0.905 | Cracovia Krakow attack 0.850 / defence 1.132. League average goals — home 1.598 / away 1.304. Data: built from Gornik Zabrze's last 48 games and Cracovia Krakow's last 48.
Result probabilities: Gornik Zabrze 53% | Draw 27% | Cracovia Krakow 20%. Fair-value odds: Gornik Zabrze 1.88 | Draw 3.69 | Cracovia Krakow 5.06. Gornik Zabrze hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Gornik Zabrze as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Gornik Zabrze if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.75 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Gornik Zabrze's last 10 home games and Cracovia Krakow's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Gornik Zabrze 70% (last 10 home games) | Cracovia Krakow 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gornik Zabrze vs Cracovia Krakow | Competition: Ekstraklasa, matchday 24 | Venue: Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla • Kick-off: Saturday 6 March 2027 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gornik Zabrze 53% | Draw 27% | Cracovia Krakow 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% (Under 48%) | BTTS Yes 54% (No 46%) | xG Gornik Zabrze 1.75 / Cracovia Krakow 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Gornik Zabrze attack 0.968 / def 0.905 | Cracovia Krakow attack 0.850 / def 1.132 | league avg home 1.598 / away 1.304 • Poisson stance: Gornik Zabrze (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.75
Gornik Zabrze xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Cracovia Krakow xG
54%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Gornik Zabrze vs Cracovia Krakow FAQs
What time does Gornik Zabrze vs Cracovia Krakow kick off?
Gornik Zabrze vs Cracovia Krakow is scheduled to kick off at 17:00 UK time on Saturday 6 March 2027 at Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla.
Where is Gornik Zabrze vs Cracovia Krakow being played?
The match is being played at Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla.
What competition is Gornik Zabrze vs Cracovia Krakow part of?
Gornik Zabrze vs Cracovia Krakow is a Ekstraklasa fixture (matchday 24) (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Gornik Zabrze vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our statistical model gives Gornik Zabrze a 53% chance of winning, Cracovia Krakow a 20% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Gornik Zabrze the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gornik Zabrze vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Gornik Zabrze and Cracovia Krakow will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Gornik Zabrze vs Cracovia Krakow have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Gornik Zabrze's attack at 0.97x the league average against Cracovia Krakow's defence at 1.13x — combine the two and it projects 1.75 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Cracovia Krakow's attack (0.85x) against Gornik Zabrze's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 1.00.
These ratings are built from Gornik Zabrze's last 48 games and Cracovia Krakow's last 48 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gornik Zabrze Win
53%
1.88
27%
3.69
20%
5.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
2 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.75
Gornik Zabrze xG
Total xG
2.75
1.00
Cracovia Krakow xG
1.88
53%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
5.06
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
37%
2.73
17%
5.76
Win to Nil
19%
5.14
3%
29.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 6.4 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 11.2 | 5.6 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 9.8 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 5.7 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Gornik Zabrze vs Cracovia Krakow Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Gornik Zabrze vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Gornik Zabrze and Cracovia Krakow expected to score?
The model projects 1.75 expected goals for Gornik Zabrze and 1.00 for Cracovia Krakow, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Gornik Zabrze vs Cracovia Krakow?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 48 outings, Gornik Zabrze have picked up 1.81 PPG on a 25W 12D 11L record — W-D-D-D-W across the most recent five.
Cracovia Krakow's form line: 12W 18D 18L from 48 games, 1.12 PPG, last five W-D-L-L-L.
Put side by side, Gornik Zabrze are the form team by 0.69 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Cracovia Krakow.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Gornik Zabrze have posted 2.00 PPG from their last 24 home games (15W 3D 6L).
On the road, Cracovia Krakow have gone 4W 8D 12L from their last 24 away games — 0.83 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Gornik Zabrze come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Gornik Zabrze are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 1.04 conceded per game recently; Cracovia Krakow are on 1.15 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Last 48 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gornik Zabrze
Blended
Cracovia Krakow
Blended
Gornik Zabrze (Home) vs Cracovia Krakow (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Gornik Zabrze
Blended
Cracovia Krakow
Blended
❓ Gornik Zabrze vs Cracovia Krakow Form FAQs
What form are Gornik Zabrze and Cracovia Krakow in coming into this match?
Gornik Zabrze have gone 25W 12D 11L in their last 48 games (1.81 PPG), while Cracovia Krakow have gone 12W 18D 18L in their last 48 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gornik Zabrze at home or Cracovia Krakow away?
Gornik Zabrze's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gornik Zabrze at home: 2.00 PPG; Cracovia Krakow away: 0.83 PPG.
Have Gornik Zabrze or Cracovia Krakow been keeping clean sheets recently?
Gornik Zabrze have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Cracovia Krakow in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to March 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Ekstraklasa. The most recent was as recently as 6 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
Gornik Zabrze have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Cracovia Krakow won Cracovia Krakow 5-0 Gornik Zabrze on 3 May 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Gornik Zabrze have gone 3W 0D 2L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Cracovia Krakow — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Gornik Zabrze
1
Draws
5
Cracovia Krakow
Recent Meetings
❓ Gornik Zabrze vs Cracovia Krakow H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Gornik Zabrze and Cracovia Krakow?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Gornik Zabrze have won 4, Cracovia Krakow have won 5, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Gornik Zabrze and Cracovia Krakow last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 6 September 2026: Cracovia Krakow 0-1 Gornik Zabrze.
Who has won more matches between Gornik Zabrze and Cracovia Krakow?
Cracovia Krakow have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Gornik Zabrze are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Cracovia Krakow see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gornik Zabrze 62%, Cracovia Krakow 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Gornik Zabrze and 58% for Cracovia Krakow. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Cracovia Krakow in 38%; Cracovia Krakow in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gornik Zabrze home games / Cracovia Krakow away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Gornik Zabrze vs Cracovia Krakow Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Gornik Zabrze and Cracovia Krakow matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Gornik Zabrze's games and 50% of Cracovia Krakow's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Gornik Zabrze and Cracovia Krakow matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Gornik Zabrze's matches and 58% of Cracovia Krakow's.
Do Gornik Zabrze and Cracovia Krakow matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 75% of Gornik Zabrze's recent matches and 54% of Cracovia Krakow's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.