Górnik Łęczna 2-0 Stal Mielec – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Stal Mielec at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Górnik Łęczna vs Stal Mielec fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Górnik Łęczna and Stal Mielec meet at Stadion Górnik in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 23. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 26 February 2022 at 16:30 UTC.
Current Form
Górnik Łęczna's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 3W 6D 1L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: W W D D D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Górnik Łęczna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Górnik Łęczna at Stadion Górnik this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.00 lags behind their overall 1.50 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadion Górnik this season.
Stal Mielec (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: W D L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Stal Mielec, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Stal Mielec's form when playing away from home: 2W 5D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.50 vs 1.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Górnik Łęczna register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Stal Mielec in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Górnik Łęczna, 1 for Stal Mielec and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Aug 2021, ended 0–2 with Stal Mielec winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Górnik Łęczna half-time and goal-timing data (22 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Stal Mielec half-time and goal-timing data (22 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Górnik Łęczna 68% and Stal Mielec 54% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Górnik Łęczna 50% | Stal Mielec 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Górnik Łęczna 1.02 xG and Stal Mielec 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Górnik Łęczna attack 0.825 / defence 1.266 | Stal Mielec attack 0.860 / defence 1.119. League average goals — home 1.107 / away 1.159. Data: 22 Górnik Łęczna games / 22 Stal Mielec games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Górnik Łęczna 30% | Draw 29% | Stal Mielec 41%. Fair-value odds: Górnik Łęczna 3.33 | Draw 3.45 | Stal Mielec 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Stal Mielec at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Stal Mielec if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.28 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 40% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. This conflicts with form data: Górnik Łęczna 70% | Stal Mielec 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Górnik Łęczna vs Stal Mielec | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Stadion Górnik • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Feb 2022, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Górnik Łęczna 30% | Draw 29% | Stal Mielec 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 46% | xG Górnik Łęczna 1.02 / Stal Mielec 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Górnik Łęczna attack 0.825 / def 1.266 | Stal Mielec attack 0.860 / def 1.119 | league avg home 1.107 / away 1.159 • Poisson stance: Stal Mielec (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.02
Górnik Łęczna xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Stal Mielec xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Górnik Łęczna vs Stal Mielec kick off?
Górnik Łęczna vs Stal Mielec kicked off at 16:30 on Saturday 26 February 2022 at Stadion Górnik.
What was the final score in Górnik Łęczna vs Stal Mielec?
Górnik Łęczna 2 - 0 Stal Mielec.
Where is Górnik Łęczna vs Stal Mielec being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Górnik.
What competition is Górnik Łęczna vs Stal Mielec part of?
Górnik Łęczna vs Stal Mielec is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Górnik Łęczna vs Stal Mielec?
Our statistical model gives Górnik Łęczna a 30% chance of winning, Stal Mielec a 41% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Stal Mielec the favourite.
Will both teams score in Górnik Łęczna vs Stal Mielec?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Górnik Łęczna and Stal Mielec will score (BTTS).
Will Górnik Łęczna vs Stal Mielec have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Górnik Łęczna and Stal Mielec?
Record (1 meetings): Górnik Łęczna 0W | Draws 0 | Stal Mielec 1W.
What form are Górnik Łęczna and Stal Mielec in?
Górnik Łęczna (all comps): 3W-6D-1L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-D-D-D. Stal Mielec (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Górnik Łęczna's attack at 0.82x the league average against Stal Mielec's defence at 1.12x — combine the two and it projects 1.02 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Stal Mielec's attack (0.86x) against Górnik Łęczna's defence (1.27x) — and the away total comes out at 1.26.
These ratings are built from 22/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.9%), 0-1 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stal Mielec Win
30%
3.39
29%
3.43
41%
2.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.9%
Away win
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.02
Górnik Łęczna xG
Total xG
2.28
1.26
Stal Mielec xG
3.39
30%
Home win
3.43
29%
Draw
2.42
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.16
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
28%
3.53
36%
2.78
Win to Nil
8%
11.97
15%
6.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 12.9 | 8.1 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 13.1 | 8.3 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 6.7 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Górnik Łęczna vs Stal Mielec?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Górnik Łęczna and Stal Mielec expected to score?
The model projects 1.02 expected goals for Górnik Łęczna and 1.26 for Stal Mielec, a combined total of 2.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Górnik Łęczna vs Stal Mielec?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Górnik Łęczna's recent record stands at 4W 9D 9L from 22 games, a 0.95 PPG return, with W-W-D-D-D in the last five. The sample for Górnik Łęczna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Stal Mielec, meanwhile, have gone 8W 7D 7L across 22 games — 1.41 PPG, with W-D-L-W-L in their last five. The sample for Stal Mielec is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Stal Mielec by 0.46 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Górnik Łęczna heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Górnik Łęczna have managed 2W 4D 4L from 10 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Stal Mielec's away record stands at 2W 5D 3L across 10 trips, a 1.10 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Górnik Łęczna are averaging 0.95 goals scored and 1.73 conceded per game recently; Stal Mielec are on 1.27 scored and 1.32 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Górnik Łęczna have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games.
Last 22 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Górnik Łęczna
Blended
Stal Mielec
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Górnik Łęczna and Stal Mielec in coming into this match?
Górnik Łęczna have gone 4W 9D 9L in their last 22 games (0.95 PPG), while Stal Mielec have gone 8W 7D 7L in their last 22 (1.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Górnik Łęczna at home or Stal Mielec away?
Stal Mielec's away record (1.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Górnik Łęczna at home: 1.00 PPG; Stal Mielec away: 1.10 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 February 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Górnik Łęczna
0
Draws
1
Stal Mielec
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Górnik Łęczna and Stal Mielec?
From 2 meetings on record, Górnik Łęczna have won 1, Stal Mielec have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Górnik Łęczna and Stal Mielec last play each other?
They last met on 26 February 2022, when Górnik Łęczna 2-0 Stal Mielec.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Górnik Łęczna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 30% of those situations.
Stal Mielec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 70% for Górnik Łęczna, 70% for Stal Mielec — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Górnik Łęczna) and 40% (Stal Mielec).
On the defensive side: Górnik Łęczna have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Górnik Łęczna home games / Stal Mielec away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Górnik Łęczna play Stal Mielec?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Górnik Łęczna's games and 70% of Stal Mielec's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Górnik Łęczna vs Stal Mielec usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Górnik Łęczna's recent games and 40% of Stal Mielec's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Górnik Łęczna and Stal Mielec tend to score early?
Górnik Łęczna have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, Stal Mielec in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Górnik Łęczna cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Stal Mielec.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Górnik Łęczna beat Stal Mielec 2-0 at Stadion Górnik, Regular Season - 23, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Górnik Łęczna 1.02 xG and Stal Mielec 1.26 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Górnik Łęczna beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Stal Mielec landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Górnik Łęczna attack 0.82 / defence 1.27 against Stal Mielec attack 0.86 / defence 1.12, drawn from 22/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Górnik Łęczna 30% | Draw 29% | Stal Mielec 41%, with Stal Mielec to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Górnik Łęczna win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Górnik Łęczna 50%, Stal Mielec 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Górnik Łęczna's trading profile (22 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.
Stal Mielec's trading profile (22 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Stal Mielec arrived the stronger side — 1.41 PPG against 0.95. Form was overturned, with Górnik Łęczna winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Górnik Łęczna (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.90 average — tighter than their form line. Stal Mielec (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.