Górnik Łęczna 0-4 Lechia Gdansk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Lechia Gdansk at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Górnik Łęczna vs Lechia Gdansk encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Lechia Gdansk make the trip to Stadion Górnik to face Górnik Łęczna in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 9. The match kicks off on Friday 24 September 2021 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Górnik Łęczna have collected 0.62 PPG across 8 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 1W 2D 5L. Last five: D L L W L. They are averaging 0.88 goals per game and conceding 2.25 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.25 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 8 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 62% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Górnik Łęczna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Górnik Łęczna at Stadion Górnik this season: 1W 1D 2L from 4 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Lechia Gdansk (all games): 3W 4D 1L across 8 Ekstraklasa outings this term — 1.62 points per game. Last five: W L D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.38 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets in 8 outings (38%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Lechia Gdansk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lechia Gdansk away from home this season: 0W 3D 1L from 4 away games — 0.75 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.75 is notably below their overall 1.62 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Lechia Gdansk are the stronger side — 1.00 PPG clear of the hosts (1.62 vs 0.62). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Górnik Łęczna register both teams scoring in 75% of relevant games, Lechia Gdansk in 75%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Trading
Górnik Łęczna half-time and goal-timing data (8 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 62%; they fail to score in 38% of games.
Lechia Gdansk half-time and goal-timing data (8 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 50% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Górnik Łęczna 62% versus Lechia Gdansk 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Górnik Łęczna 62% | Lechia Gdansk 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Górnik Łęczna 1.27 xG and Lechia Gdansk 1.62 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Górnik Łęczna attack 0.910 / defence 1.648 | Lechia Gdansk attack 0.884 / defence 1.219. League average goals — home 1.150 / away 1.113. Lechia Gdansk bring a strong defensive rating of 1.219 — this is suppressing Górnik Łęczna's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 8 Górnik Łęczna games / 8 Lechia Gdansk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Górnik Łęczna 29% | Draw 27% | Lechia Gdansk 44%. Fair-value odds: Górnik Łęczna 3.45 | Draw 3.70 | Lechia Gdansk 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lechia Gdansk at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lechia Gdansk if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.90 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Górnik Łęczna 75% | Lechia Gdansk 75% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Górnik Łęczna vs Lechia Gdansk | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Stadion Górnik • Kick-off: Friday 24 Sep 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Górnik Łęczna 29% | Draw 27% | Lechia Gdansk 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 59% | xG Górnik Łęczna 1.27 / Lechia Gdansk 1.62 • Poisson strength factors: Górnik Łęczna attack 0.910 / def 1.648 | Lechia Gdansk attack 0.884 / def 1.219 | league avg home 1.150 / away 1.113 • Poisson stance: Lechia Gdansk (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Górnik Łęczna xG
Expected Goals
1.62
Lechia Gdansk xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Górnik Łęczna vs Lechia Gdansk kick off?
Górnik Łęczna vs Lechia Gdansk kicked off at 17:00 on Friday 24 September 2021 at Stadion Górnik.
What was the final score in Górnik Łęczna vs Lechia Gdansk?
Górnik Łęczna 0 - 4 Lechia Gdansk.
Where is Górnik Łęczna vs Lechia Gdansk being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Górnik.
What competition is Górnik Łęczna vs Lechia Gdansk part of?
Górnik Łęczna vs Lechia Gdansk is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Górnik Łęczna vs Lechia Gdansk?
Our statistical model gives Górnik Łęczna a 29% chance of winning, Lechia Gdansk a 44% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Lechia Gdansk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Górnik Łęczna vs Lechia Gdansk?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Górnik Łęczna and Lechia Gdansk will score (BTTS).
Will Górnik Łęczna vs Lechia Gdansk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Górnik Łęczna and Lechia Gdansk?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Górnik Łęczna and Lechia Gdansk in?
Górnik Łęczna (all comps): 1W-2D-5L in 8 | 0.62 PPG | GF 0.88 / GA 2.25 | L5 D-L-L-W-L. Lechia Gdansk (all comps): 3W-4D-1L in 8 | 1.62 PPG | GF 1.38 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Górnik Łęczna's attack at 0.91x the league average against Lechia Gdansk's defence at 1.22x — combine the two and it projects 1.27 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Lechia Gdansk's attack (0.88x) against Górnik Łęczna's defence (1.65x) — and the away total comes out at 1.62.
These ratings are built from 8/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 0-1 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Lechia Gdansk Win
29%
3.47
27%
3.70
44%
2.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Górnik Łęczna xG
Total xG
2.90
1.62
Lechia Gdansk xG
3.47
29%
Home win
3.70
27%
Draw
2.26
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.45
Clean Sheet
20%
5.07
28%
3.58
Win to Nil
6%
17.60
12%
8.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 8.9 | 7.3 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 11.4 | 9.3 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 7.3 | 5.9 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 3.1 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Górnik Łęczna vs Lechia Gdansk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Górnik Łęczna and Lechia Gdansk expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Górnik Łęczna and 1.62 for Lechia Gdansk, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Górnik Łęczna vs Lechia Gdansk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 8 outings, Górnik Łęczna have picked up 0.62 PPG on a 1W 2D 5L record — D-L-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Górnik Łęczna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lechia Gdansk's form line: 3W 4D 1L from 8 games, 1.62 PPG, last five W-L-D-D-W. The sample for Lechia Gdansk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Lechia Gdansk are the form team by 1.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Górnik Łęczna.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Górnik Łęczna have posted 1.00 PPG from 4 outings (1W 1D 2L).
On the road, Lechia Gdansk have gone 0W 3D 1L from 4 away games — 0.75 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.62 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Lechia Gdansk's season.
Attack vs Defence
Górnik Łęczna are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 2.25 conceded per game recently; Lechia Gdansk are on 1.38 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Górnik Łęczna have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Defensively: Lechia Gdansk in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 8 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Górnik Łęczna
Blended
Lechia Gdansk
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Górnik Łęczna and Lechia Gdansk in coming into this match?
Górnik Łęczna have gone 1W 2D 5L in their last 8 games (0.62 PPG), while Lechia Gdansk have gone 3W 4D 1L in their last 8 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Górnik Łęczna at home or Lechia Gdansk away?
Górnik Łęczna's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Górnik Łęczna at home: 1.00 PPG; Lechia Gdansk away: 0.75 PPG.
Have Górnik Łęczna or Lechia Gdansk been keeping clean sheets recently?
Górnik Łęczna have kept a clean sheet in 12% of their recent games, Lechia Gdansk in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 March 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Górnik Łęczna
0
Draws
2
Lechia Gdansk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Górnik Łęczna and Lechia Gdansk?
From 2 meetings on record, Górnik Łęczna have won 0, Lechia Gdansk have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Górnik Łęczna and Lechia Gdansk last play each other?
They last met on 19 March 2022, when Lechia Gdansk 2-0 Górnik Łęczna.
Who has won more matches between Górnik Łęczna and Lechia Gdansk?
Lechia Gdansk have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Górnik Łęczna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Lechia Gdansk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 75% for Górnik Łęczna, 75% for Lechia Gdansk — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 75% (Górnik Łęczna) and 25% (Lechia Gdansk).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Górnik Łęczna home games / Lechia Gdansk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Górnik Łęczna play Lechia Gdansk?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Górnik Łęczna's games and 75% of Lechia Gdansk's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Górnik Łęczna vs Lechia Gdansk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 75% of Górnik Łęczna's recent games and 25% of Lechia Gdansk's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Górnik Łęczna and Lechia Gdansk tend to score early?
Górnik Łęczna have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Lechia Gdansk in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Lechia Gdansk run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Górnik Łęczna.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lechia Gdansk beat Górnik Łęczna 0-4 at Stadion Górnik, Regular Season - 9, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Górnik Łęczna 1.27 xG and Lechia Gdansk 1.62 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Górnik Łęczna fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Lechia Gdansk outscored their 1.62 projection by 2.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Górnik Łęczna attack 0.91 / defence 1.65 against Lechia Gdansk attack 0.88 / defence 1.22, drawn from 8/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Górnik Łęczna 29% | Draw 27% | Lechia Gdansk 44%, with Lechia Gdansk to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Górnik Łęczna 62%, Lechia Gdansk 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Górnik Łęczna's trading profile (8 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Lechia Gdansk's trading profile (8 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Lechia Gdansk arrived the stronger side — 1.62 PPG against 0.62. Form held, and they took the win. Górnik Łęczna (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 2.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Lechia Gdansk (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.