Górnik Łęczna 0-1 Jagiellonia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Górnik Łęczna at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Górnik Łęczna vs Jagiellonia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ekstraklasa encounter, Regular Season - 34 sees Jagiellonia travel to Stadion Górnik to take on Górnik Łęczna. The game is scheduled for Saturday 21 May 2022, 16:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Górnik Łęczna stand at 1W 1D 8L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 0.40 PPG. Last five: W L L D L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Górnik Łęczna have posted 3W 4D 3L at Stadion Górnik — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.40 — Górnik Łęczna are significantly better at Stadion Górnik than their overall form suggests.
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Jagiellonia have recorded 1W 5D 4L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Jagiellonia's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.40 PPG (Górnik Łęczna) versus 0.80 (Jagiellonia). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Górnik Łęczna, 0 for Jagiellonia and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 4 Dec 2021, ended 2–1 with Górnik Łęczna winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Górnik Łęczna trading profile (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Jagiellonia trading profile (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Górnik Łęczna 58% and Jagiellonia 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Górnik Łęczna 48% | Jagiellonia 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Górnik Łęczna 1.12 xG and Jagiellonia 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Górnik Łęczna attack 0.768 / defence 1.188 | Jagiellonia attack 0.715 / defence 1.351. League average goals — home 1.079 / away 1.257. Górnik Łęczna's attack strength of 0.768 is below the league average — the 1.12 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Jagiellonia bring a strong defensive rating of 1.351 — this is suppressing Górnik Łęczna's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 33 Górnik Łęczna games / 33 Jagiellonia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Górnik Łęczna 36% | Draw 32% | Jagiellonia 33%. Fair-value odds: Górnik Łęczna 2.78 | Draw 3.12 | Jagiellonia 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Górnik Łęczna are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Górnik Łęczna offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.19 combined xG gives a 37% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Górnik Łęczna 50% | Jagiellonia 60%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Górnik Łęczna vs Jagiellonia | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Stadion Górnik • Kick-off: Saturday 21 May 2022, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Górnik Łęczna 36% | Draw 32% | Jagiellonia 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 45% | xG Górnik Łęczna 1.12 / Jagiellonia 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Górnik Łęczna attack 0.768 / def 1.188 | Jagiellonia attack 0.715 / def 1.351 | league avg home 1.079 / away 1.257 • Poisson stance: Górnik Łęczna (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Górnik Łęczna xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Jagiellonia xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Górnik Łęczna vs Jagiellonia kick off?
Górnik Łęczna vs Jagiellonia kicked off at 16:30 on Saturday 21 May 2022 at Stadion Górnik.
What was the final score in Górnik Łęczna vs Jagiellonia?
Górnik Łęczna 0 - 1 Jagiellonia.
Where is Górnik Łęczna vs Jagiellonia being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Górnik.
What competition is Górnik Łęczna vs Jagiellonia part of?
Górnik Łęczna vs Jagiellonia is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Górnik Łęczna vs Jagiellonia?
Our statistical model gives Górnik Łęczna a 36% chance of winning, Jagiellonia a 33% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Górnik Łęczna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Górnik Łęczna vs Jagiellonia?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Górnik Łęczna and Jagiellonia will score (BTTS).
Will Górnik Łęczna vs Jagiellonia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Górnik Łęczna and Jagiellonia?
Record (1 meetings): Górnik Łęczna 1W | Draws 0 | Jagiellonia 0W.
What form are Górnik Łęczna and Jagiellonia in?
Górnik Łęczna (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-L-L-D-L. Jagiellonia (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Górnik Łęczna's attack at 0.77x the league average against Jagiellonia's defence at 1.35x — combine the two and it projects 1.12 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Jagiellonia's attack versus Górnik Łęczna's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 33/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.0%), 1-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Górnik Łęczna Win
36%
2.82
32%
3.16
33%
3.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
0 – 1
12.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Górnik Łęczna xG
Total xG
2.19
1.07
Jagiellonia xG
2.82
36%
Home win
3.16
32%
Draw
3.04
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.20
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
34%
2.91
33%
3.06
Win to Nil
12%
8.20
11%
9.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.2 | 12.0 | 6.4 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.6 | 13.4 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 7.5 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Górnik Łęczna vs Jagiellonia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Górnik Łęczna and Jagiellonia expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Górnik Łęczna and 1.07 for Jagiellonia, a combined total of 2.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Górnik Łęczna vs Jagiellonia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Górnik Łęczna's recent record stands at 6W 10D 17L from 33 games, a 0.85 PPG return, with W-L-L-D-L in the last five.
Jagiellonia, meanwhile, have gone 8W 13D 12L across 33 games — 1.12 PPG, with L-L-D-D-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Górnik Łęczna on 0.85 PPG, Jagiellonia on 1.12. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Górnik Łęczna have managed 4W 6D 6L from 16 games — 1.12 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Jagiellonia's away record stands at 3W 5D 8L across 16 trips, a 0.88 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Górnik Łęczna are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 1.79 conceded per game recently; Jagiellonia are on 1.15 scored and 1.52 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jagiellonia in 67%.
Last 33 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Górnik Łęczna
Current Season
Jagiellonia
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Górnik Łęczna and Jagiellonia in coming into this match?
Górnik Łęczna have gone 6W 10D 17L in their last 33 games (0.85 PPG), while Jagiellonia have gone 8W 13D 12L in their last 33 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Górnik Łęczna at home or Jagiellonia away?
Górnik Łęczna's home record (1.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Górnik Łęczna at home: 1.12 PPG; Jagiellonia away: 0.88 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 21 May 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Górnik Łęczna
0
Draws
1
Jagiellonia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Górnik Łęczna and Jagiellonia?
From 2 meetings on record, Górnik Łęczna have won 1, Jagiellonia have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Górnik Łęczna and Jagiellonia last play each other?
They last met on 21 May 2022, when Górnik Łęczna 0-1 Jagiellonia.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Górnik Łęczna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Jagiellonia see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Górnik Łęczna 56%, Jagiellonia 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Górnik Łęczna) and 69% (Jagiellonia). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Górnik Łęczna have failed to score in 31% of games; Jagiellonia in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Górnik Łęczna home games / Jagiellonia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Górnik Łęczna play Jagiellonia?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Górnik Łęczna's games and 62% of Jagiellonia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Górnik Łęczna vs Jagiellonia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 44% of Górnik Łęczna's matches and 69% of Jagiellonia's.
Do Górnik Łęczna and Jagiellonia tend to score early?
Górnik Łęczna have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Jagiellonia in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Jagiellonia defy the odds to beat Górnik Łęczna 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jagiellonia beat Górnik Łęczna 0-1 at Stadion Górnik, Regular Season - 34, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Górnik Łęczna 1.12 xG and Jagiellonia 1.07 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Górnik Łęczna fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Górnik Łęczna attack 0.77 / defence 1.19 against Jagiellonia attack 0.71 / defence 1.35, drawn from 33/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Górnik Łęczna 36% | Draw 32% | Jagiellonia 33%, with Górnik Łęczna to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Jagiellonia win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Górnik Łęczna 48%, Jagiellonia 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Górnik Łęczna's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Jagiellonia's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Górnik Łęczna 0.85 PPG, Jagiellonia 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Jagiellonia win broke the near-deadlock. Górnik Łęczna (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.94 scoring average — below par going forward. Jagiellonia (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.88 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.