Górnik Łęczna 1-1 Cracovia Krakow – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 55% as Górnik Łęczna take on Cracovia Krakow.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ekstraklasa clash, Regular Season - 1 as Górnik Łęczna welcome Cracovia Krakow to Stadion Górnik. Kick-off is set for Saturday 24 July 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Górnik Łęczna 0.35 xG and Cracovia Krakow 0.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Górnik Łęczna attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Cracovia Krakow attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 0.362 / away 0.508. Data: 0 Górnik Łęczna games / 0 Cracovia Krakow games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Górnik Łęczna 17% | Draw 55% | Cracovia Krakow 27%. Fair-value odds: Górnik Łęczna 5.88 | Draw 1.82 | Cracovia Krakow 3.70. The draw (55%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 6% | BTTS probability 14% | Total xG 0.85. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 94% probability — total xG of 0.85 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 86% — Górnik Łęczna's lower xG of 0.35 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 14%.
Analysis Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 55% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 17% and away win at 27% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 0.85 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 6% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Górnik Łęczna vs Cracovia Krakow | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Stadion Górnik • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Jul 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Górnik Łęczna 17% | Draw 55% | Cracovia Krakow 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 6% | BTTS 14% | xG Górnik Łęczna 0.35 / Cracovia Krakow 0.50 • Poisson strength factors: Górnik Łęczna attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Cracovia Krakow attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 0.362 / away 0.508 • Poisson stance: Draw (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.35
Górnik Łęczna xG
Expected Goals
0.50
Cracovia Krakow xG
14%
BTTS
23%
Over 1.5
6%
Over 2.5
1%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Górnik Łęczna vs Cracovia Krakow kick off?
Górnik Łęczna vs Cracovia Krakow kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 24 July 2021 at Stadion Górnik.
What was the final score in Górnik Łęczna vs Cracovia Krakow?
Górnik Łęczna 1 - 1 Cracovia Krakow.
Where is Górnik Łęczna vs Cracovia Krakow being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Górnik.
What competition is Górnik Łęczna vs Cracovia Krakow part of?
Górnik Łęczna vs Cracovia Krakow is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Górnik Łęczna vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our statistical model gives Górnik Łęczna a 17% chance of winning, Cracovia Krakow a 27% chance, and a 55% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Górnik Łęczna vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our model estimates a 14% probability that both Górnik Łęczna and Cracovia Krakow will score (BTTS).
Will Górnik Łęczna vs Cracovia Krakow have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 6%.
What is the head-to-head record between Górnik Łęczna and Cracovia Krakow?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Górnik Łęczna and Cracovia Krakow in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Górnik Łęczna's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Cracovia Krakow's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.35. The same calculation in reverse, Cracovia Krakow's attack versus Górnik Łęczna's defence, projects 0.50 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 0/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 43.7%. Close behind: 0-1 (20.2%), 1-0 (14.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 78% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
17%
5.73
55%
1.82
27%
3.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
42.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
21.2%
Away win
1 – 0
15.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.35
Górnik Łęczna xG
Total xG
0.85
0.50
Cracovia Krakow xG
5.73
17%
Home win
1.82
55%
Draw
3.64
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
21%
Over 1.5
4.76
79%
Under 1.5
1.27
6%
Over 2.5
16.67
94%
Under 2.5
1.06
1%
Over 3.5
100.00
99%
Under 3.5
1.01
0%
Over 4.5
–
100%
Under 4.5
1.00
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
14%
BTTS Yes
7.18
86%
BTTS No
1.16
Clean Sheet
61%
1.64
70%
1.42
Win to Nil
11%
9.41
19%
5.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 42.7 | 21.2 | 5.3 | 0.9 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 15.1 | 7.5 | 1.9 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 2 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | – | – | – | – |
| 4 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Górnik Łęczna vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 43.7%.
How many goals are Górnik Łęczna and Cracovia Krakow expected to score?
The model projects 0.35 expected goals for Górnik Łęczna and 0.50 for Cracovia Krakow, a combined total of 0.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Górnik Łęczna vs Cracovia Krakow?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Górnik Łęczna
Pre-Season
Cracovia Krakow
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Górnik Łęczna and Cracovia Krakow runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 December 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Górnik Łęczna
1
Draws
0
Cracovia Krakow
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Górnik Łęczna and Cracovia Krakow?
From 2 meetings on record, Górnik Łęczna have won 1, Cracovia Krakow have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Górnik Łęczna and Cracovia Krakow last play each other?
They last met on 12 December 2021, when Cracovia Krakow 0-2 Górnik Łęczna.
Who has won more matches between Górnik Łęczna and Cracovia Krakow?
Górnik Łęczna have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Górnik Łęczna home games / Cracovia Krakow away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Górnik Łęczna and Cracovia Krakow share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Górnik Łęczna and Cracovia Krakow finished level at 1-1 at Stadion Górnik, Regular Season - 1, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Górnik Łęczna 0.35 xG and Cracovia Krakow 0.50 xG, a combined 0.85. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Górnik Łęczna attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Cracovia Krakow attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 0/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Górnik Łęczna 17% | Draw 55% | Cracovia Krakow 27%, with the draw its most likely call at 55%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 6%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 23% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 14% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.