Cracovia Krakow 1-0 Zaglebie Lubin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cracovia Krakow at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cracovia Krakow vs Zaglebie Lubin fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ekstraklasa clash, Regular Season - 29 as Cracovia Krakow welcome Zaglebie Lubin to Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego. Kick-off is set for Monday 18 April 2022 at 11:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Cracovia Krakow have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: L D L W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Cracovia Krakow have posted 4W 2D 4L at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Zaglebie Lubin — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Zaglebie Lubin have posted 1W 2D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (Cracovia Krakow) versus 1.10 (Zaglebie Lubin). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Cracovia Krakow, 0 for Zaglebie Lubin and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Oct 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Cracovia Krakow in-play tendencies (28 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Zaglebie Lubin in-play tendencies (28 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cracovia Krakow 54% versus Zaglebie Lubin 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cracovia Krakow 46% | Zaglebie Lubin 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cracovia Krakow 1.39 xG and Zaglebie Lubin 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cracovia Krakow attack 0.973 / defence 1.221 | Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.752 / defence 1.368. League average goals — home 1.044 / away 1.114. Zaglebie Lubin bring a strong defensive rating of 1.368 — this is suppressing Cracovia Krakow's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 28 Cracovia Krakow games / 28 Zaglebie Lubin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cracovia Krakow 45% | Draw 28% | Zaglebie Lubin 27%. Fair-value odds: Cracovia Krakow 2.22 | Draw 3.57 | Zaglebie Lubin 3.70. Cracovia Krakow hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Cracovia Krakow are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cracovia Krakow offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.41 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates corroborate: Cracovia Krakow 40% | Zaglebie Lubin 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cracovia Krakow vs Zaglebie Lubin | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego • Kick-off: Monday 18 Apr 2022, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cracovia Krakow 45% | Draw 28% | Zaglebie Lubin 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 49% | xG Cracovia Krakow 1.39 / Zaglebie Lubin 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Cracovia Krakow attack 0.973 / def 1.221 | Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.752 / def 1.368 | league avg home 1.044 / away 1.114 • Poisson stance: Cracovia Krakow (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Cracovia Krakow xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Zaglebie Lubin xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cracovia Krakow vs Zaglebie Lubin kick off?
Cracovia Krakow vs Zaglebie Lubin kicked off at 11:30 on Monday 18 April 2022 at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What was the final score in Cracovia Krakow vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Cracovia Krakow 1 - 0 Zaglebie Lubin.
Where is Cracovia Krakow vs Zaglebie Lubin being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What competition is Cracovia Krakow vs Zaglebie Lubin part of?
Cracovia Krakow vs Zaglebie Lubin is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Cracovia Krakow vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Our statistical model gives Cracovia Krakow a 45% chance of winning, Zaglebie Lubin a 27% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Cracovia Krakow the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cracovia Krakow vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Cracovia Krakow and Zaglebie Lubin will score (BTTS).
Will Cracovia Krakow vs Zaglebie Lubin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cracovia Krakow and Zaglebie Lubin?
Record (1 meetings): Cracovia Krakow 0W | Draws 1 | Zaglebie Lubin 0W.
What form are Cracovia Krakow and Zaglebie Lubin in?
Cracovia Krakow (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-L-W-L. Zaglebie Lubin (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Cracovia Krakow's attack rating (0.97) and Zaglebie Lubin's defence rating (1.37), the model arrives at 1.39 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Zaglebie Lubin's attack versus Cracovia Krakow's defence, projects 1.02 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 28/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.8%), 0-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cracovia Krakow Win
45%
2.23
28%
3.57
27%
3.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Cracovia Krakow xG
Total xG
2.41
1.02
Zaglebie Lubin xG
2.23
45%
Home win
3.57
28%
Draw
3.68
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.06
51%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
36%
2.78
25%
4.01
Win to Nil
16%
6.20
7%
14.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 9.2 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 12.7 | 6.5 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 8.8 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cracovia Krakow vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Cracovia Krakow and Zaglebie Lubin expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Cracovia Krakow and 1.02 for Zaglebie Lubin, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Cracovia Krakow vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Cracovia Krakow's recent record stands at 9W 8D 11L from 28 games, a 1.25 PPG return, with L-D-L-W-L in the last five.
Zaglebie Lubin, meanwhile, have gone 9W 4D 15L across 28 games — 1.11 PPG, with D-W-L-L-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cracovia Krakow on 1.25 PPG, Zaglebie Lubin on 1.11. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Cracovia Krakow have managed 5W 4D 5L from 14 games — 1.36 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Zaglebie Lubin's away record stands at 3W 2D 9L across 14 trips, a 0.79 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cracovia Krakow come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Cracovia Krakow are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Zaglebie Lubin are on 1.11 scored and 1.75 conceded.
Last 28 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cracovia Krakow
Current Season
Zaglebie Lubin
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cracovia Krakow and Zaglebie Lubin in coming into this match?
Cracovia Krakow have gone 9W 8D 11L in their last 28 games (1.25 PPG), while Zaglebie Lubin have gone 9W 4D 15L in their last 28 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cracovia Krakow at home or Zaglebie Lubin away?
Cracovia Krakow's home record (1.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cracovia Krakow at home: 1.36 PPG; Zaglebie Lubin away: 0.79 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Cracovia Krakow's record when hosting Zaglebie Lubin specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Cracovia Krakow
5
Draws
1
Zaglebie Lubin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cracovia Krakow and Zaglebie Lubin?
From 10 meetings on record, Cracovia Krakow have won 4, Zaglebie Lubin have won 1, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Cracovia Krakow and Zaglebie Lubin last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when Zaglebie Lubin 0-0 Cracovia Krakow.
Who has won more matches between Cracovia Krakow and Zaglebie Lubin?
Cracovia Krakow have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cracovia Krakow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Zaglebie Lubin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cracovia Krakow 57%, Zaglebie Lubin 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Cracovia Krakow) and 64% (Zaglebie Lubin). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 21% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Zaglebie Lubin in 36%; Zaglebie Lubin in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cracovia Krakow home games / Zaglebie Lubin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cracovia Krakow play Zaglebie Lubin?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Cracovia Krakow's recent matches and 36% of Zaglebie Lubin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cracovia Krakow vs Zaglebie Lubin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Cracovia Krakow's matches and 64% of Zaglebie Lubin's.
Do Cracovia Krakow and Zaglebie Lubin tend to score early?
Cracovia Krakow have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Zaglebie Lubin in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Cracovia Krakow edge out Zaglebie Lubin 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cracovia Krakow beat Zaglebie Lubin 1-0 at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego, Regular Season - 29, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cracovia Krakow 1.39 xG and Zaglebie Lubin 1.02 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Zaglebie Lubin landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cracovia Krakow attack 0.97 / defence 1.22 against Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.75 / defence 1.37, drawn from 28/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cracovia Krakow 45% | Draw 28% | Zaglebie Lubin 27%, with Cracovia Krakow to win its most likely call at 45%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cracovia Krakow 46%, Zaglebie Lubin 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cracovia Krakow's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Zaglebie Lubin's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cracovia Krakow 1.25 PPG, Zaglebie Lubin 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cracovia Krakow win broke the near-deadlock. Cracovia Krakow (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.36 average — tighter than their form line. Zaglebie Lubin (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.93 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.