Cracovia Krakow 1-1 Zaglebie Lubin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cracovia Krakow at 59% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Cracovia Krakow face Zaglebie Lubin.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Cracovia Krakow welcome Zaglebie Lubin to Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego in Ekstraklasa (matchday 17). Kick-off is Friday 29 November 2024 at 17:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Cracovia Krakow have gone 5W 1D 4L — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: L W W L L. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
In front of their own supporters, Cracovia Krakow have posted 5W 2D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.70 PPG. They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Zaglebie Lubin — last 10 games: 4W 1D 5L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L D W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
When travelling, Zaglebie Lubin have posted 2W 2D 6L from their last 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.60 PPG (Cracovia Krakow) versus 1.30 (Zaglebie Lubin). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 5 H2H matches, Cracovia Krakow have won 3, Zaglebie Lubin 1, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.8 per game across the 5 H2H matches we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 18 Feb 2024, ended Cracovia Krakow 1–1 Zaglebie Lubin — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Cracovia Krakow in-play tendencies (last 50 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 84% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 45%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Zaglebie Lubin in-play tendencies (last 50 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 92% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cracovia Krakow 58% versus Zaglebie Lubin 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cracovia Krakow 48% | Zaglebie Lubin 46%). Note also that Zaglebie Lubin surrender HT leads in 38% of cases while Cracovia Krakow recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 45% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cracovia Krakow 2.37 xG and Zaglebie Lubin 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cracovia Krakow attack 1.310 / defence 1.342 | Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.842 / defence 1.213. League average goals — home 1.491 / away 1.222. Cracovia Krakow carry an above-average attack rating of 1.310 — their 2.37 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Zaglebie Lubin's defence rating of 1.213 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Cracovia Krakow's projected output up. Cracovia Krakow's defence rating of 1.342 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Zaglebie Lubin's projected output up. Data: built from Cracovia Krakow's last 50 games and Zaglebie Lubin's last 50.
Result probabilities: Cracovia Krakow 59% | Draw 19% | Zaglebie Lubin 21%. Fair-value odds: Cracovia Krakow 1.68 | Draw 5.22 | Zaglebie Lubin 4.67. The model has a clear lean to Cracovia Krakow (59%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 72% | BTTS Yes probability 68% | Total xG 3.75. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 72% — a total xG of 3.75 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% — both xG figures (2.37 / 1.38) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Cracovia Krakow are the pick at 59% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.75 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 72% probability — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Cracovia Krakow's last 10 home games and Zaglebie Lubin's last 10 away games) averaging 3.4 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging only 1.8 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 68%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Cracovia Krakow 70% (last 10 home games) | Zaglebie Lubin 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cracovia Krakow vs Zaglebie Lubin | Competition: Ekstraklasa, matchday 17 | Venue: Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego • Kick-off: Friday 29 November 2024 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cracovia Krakow 59% | Draw 19% | Zaglebie Lubin 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 72% (Under 28%) | BTTS Yes 68% (No 32%) | xG Cracovia Krakow 2.37 / Zaglebie Lubin 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Cracovia Krakow attack 1.310 / def 1.342 | Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.842 / def 1.213 | league avg home 1.491 / away 1.222 • Poisson stance: Cracovia Krakow (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.37
Cracovia Krakow xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Zaglebie Lubin xG
68%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
72%
Over 2.5
52%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Cracovia Krakow vs Zaglebie Lubin FAQs
What time does Cracovia Krakow vs Zaglebie Lubin kick off?
Cracovia Krakow vs Zaglebie Lubin kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Friday 29 November 2024 at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What was the final score in Cracovia Krakow vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Cracovia Krakow 1 - 1 Zaglebie Lubin.
Where is Cracovia Krakow vs Zaglebie Lubin being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What competition is Cracovia Krakow vs Zaglebie Lubin part of?
Cracovia Krakow vs Zaglebie Lubin is a Ekstraklasa fixture (matchday 17) (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Cracovia Krakow vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Our statistical model gives Cracovia Krakow a 59% chance of winning, Zaglebie Lubin a 21% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Cracovia Krakow the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cracovia Krakow vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both Cracovia Krakow and Zaglebie Lubin will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Cracovia Krakow vs Zaglebie Lubin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 72%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Cracovia Krakow's attack rating (1.31) and Zaglebie Lubin's defence rating (1.21), the model arrives at 2.37 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Zaglebie Lubin's attack versus Cracovia Krakow's defence, projects 1.38 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Cracovia Krakow's last 50 games and Zaglebie Lubin's last 50 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.1%. Close behind: 1-1 (8.7%), 3-1 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Cracovia Krakow Win
59%
1.68
19%
5.22
21%
4.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.7%
Draw
3 – 1
7.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.37
Cracovia Krakow xG
Total xG
3.75
1.38
Zaglebie Lubin xG
1.68
59%
Home win
5.22
19%
Draw
4.67
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
72%
Over 2.5
1.39
28%
Under 2.5
3.57
52%
Over 3.5
1.92
48%
Under 3.5
2.08
32%
Over 4.5
3.12
68%
Under 4.5
1.47
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.47
32%
BTTS No
3.11
Clean Sheet
25%
3.98
9%
10.67
Win to Nil
15%
6.70
2%
49.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.4 | 3.3 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 5.6 | 7.7 | 5.3 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 9.1 | 6.3 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 7.2 | 5.0 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 3.1 | 4.3 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Cracovia Krakow vs Zaglebie Lubin Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Cracovia Krakow vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.1%.
How many goals are Cracovia Krakow and Zaglebie Lubin expected to score?
The model projects 2.37 expected goals for Cracovia Krakow and 1.38 for Zaglebie Lubin, a combined total of 3.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Cracovia Krakow vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Cracovia Krakow's recent record stands at 17W 17D 16L from 50 games, a 1.36 PPG return, with L-W-W-L-L in the last five.
Zaglebie Lubin, meanwhile, have gone 18W 11D 21L across 50 games — 1.30 PPG, with L-D-W-L-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cracovia Krakow on 1.36 PPG, Zaglebie Lubin on 1.30. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Cracovia Krakow have managed 8W 9D 8L from their last 25 home games — 1.32 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Zaglebie Lubin's away record stands at 7W 5D 13L across their last 25 away games, a 1.04 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Cracovia Krakow are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; Zaglebie Lubin are on 1.16 scored and 1.46 conceded.
Last 50 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cracovia Krakow
Blended
Zaglebie Lubin
Blended
Cracovia Krakow (Home) vs Zaglebie Lubin (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Cracovia Krakow
Blended
Zaglebie Lubin
Blended
❓ Cracovia Krakow vs Zaglebie Lubin Form FAQs
What form are Cracovia Krakow and Zaglebie Lubin in coming into this match?
Cracovia Krakow have gone 17W 17D 16L in their last 50 games (1.36 PPG), while Zaglebie Lubin have gone 18W 11D 21L in their last 50 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cracovia Krakow at home or Zaglebie Lubin away?
Cracovia Krakow's home record (1.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cracovia Krakow at home: 1.32 PPG; Zaglebie Lubin away: 1.04 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from April 2022. All of them came in Ekstraklasa. The most recent was as recently as 10 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
Cracovia Krakow's record when hosting Zaglebie Lubin specifically: 3W 2D 1L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Cracovia Krakow
4
Draws
1
Zaglebie Lubin
Recent Meetings
❓ Cracovia Krakow vs Zaglebie Lubin H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Cracovia Krakow and Zaglebie Lubin?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Cracovia Krakow have won 5, Zaglebie Lubin have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Cracovia Krakow and Zaglebie Lubin last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 10 October 2026: Cracovia Krakow 3-1 Zaglebie Lubin.
Who has won more matches between Cracovia Krakow and Zaglebie Lubin?
Cracovia Krakow have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cracovia Krakow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Zaglebie Lubin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cracovia Krakow 64%, Zaglebie Lubin 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Cracovia Krakow) and 48% (Zaglebie Lubin).
On the defensive side: Zaglebie Lubin in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cracovia Krakow home games / Zaglebie Lubin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Cracovia Krakow vs Zaglebie Lubin Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Cracovia Krakow and Zaglebie Lubin matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Cracovia Krakow's games and 48% of Zaglebie Lubin's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Cracovia Krakow and Zaglebie Lubin matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Cracovia Krakow's recent games and 48% of Zaglebie Lubin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cracovia Krakow and Zaglebie Lubin matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 84% of Cracovia Krakow's recent matches and 92% of Zaglebie Lubin's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cracovia Krakow and Zaglebie Lubin share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cracovia Krakow and Zaglebie Lubin finished level at 1-1 at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego, Regular Season - 17, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cracovia Krakow 2.37 xG and Zaglebie Lubin 1.38 xG, a combined 3.75. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Cracovia Krakow fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cracovia Krakow attack 1.31 / defence 1.34 against Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.84 / defence 1.21, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cracovia Krakow 59% | Draw 19% | Zaglebie Lubin 21%, with Cracovia Krakow to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 72%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 52% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cracovia Krakow 48%, Zaglebie Lubin 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cracovia Krakow's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Zaglebie Lubin's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cracovia Krakow 1.36 PPG, Zaglebie Lubin 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Cracovia Krakow (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.96 scoring average — below par going forward. Zaglebie Lubin (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.88 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.