Cracovia Krakow 2-0 Warta Poznań – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Cracovia Krakow at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cracovia Krakow vs Warta Poznań encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego plays host to Cracovia Krakow versus Warta Poznań in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off: Sunday 17 October 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Cracovia Krakow (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W D D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Cracovia Krakow, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cracovia Krakow's form when playing at home: 1W 2D 1L across 4 games at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego this term (1.25 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 100% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Warta Poznań have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 1W 4D 5L. Last five: D D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Warta Poznań, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Warta Poznań's form when playing away from home: 1W 1D 3L across 5 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form ledger tips toward Cracovia Krakow. A 0.60 PPG lead over Warta Poznań (1.30 vs 0.70) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Trading
Cracovia Krakow half-time and goal-timing data (10 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 40% of cases; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (home games).
Warta Poznań half-time and goal-timing data (10 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 60% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cracovia Krakow 80% versus Warta Poznań 30%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cracovia Krakow 70% | Warta Poznań 30%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cracovia Krakow 1.66 xG and Warta Poznań 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cracovia Krakow attack 1.128 / defence 1.460 | Warta Poznań attack 0.744 / defence 1.224. League average goals — home 1.200 / away 1.189. Warta Poznań bring a strong defensive rating of 1.224 — this is suppressing Cracovia Krakow's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 10 Cracovia Krakow games / 10 Warta Poznań games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cracovia Krakow 46% | Draw 24% | Warta Poznań 30%. Fair-value odds: Cracovia Krakow 2.17 | Draw 4.17 | Warta Poznań 3.33. Cracovia Krakow hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.95. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.95 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Cracovia Krakow as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cracovia Krakow if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.95 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Cracovia Krakow 100% | Warta Poznań 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cracovia Krakow vs Warta Poznań | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego • Kick-off: Sunday 17 Oct 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cracovia Krakow 46% | Draw 24% | Warta Poznań 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 59% | xG Cracovia Krakow 1.66 / Warta Poznań 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Cracovia Krakow attack 1.128 / def 1.460 | Warta Poznań attack 0.744 / def 1.224 | league avg home 1.200 / away 1.189 • Poisson stance: Cracovia Krakow (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.66
Cracovia Krakow xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Warta Poznań xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cracovia Krakow vs Warta Poznań kick off?
Cracovia Krakow vs Warta Poznań kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 17 October 2021 at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What was the final score in Cracovia Krakow vs Warta Poznań?
Cracovia Krakow 2 - 0 Warta Poznań.
Where is Cracovia Krakow vs Warta Poznań being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What competition is Cracovia Krakow vs Warta Poznań part of?
Cracovia Krakow vs Warta Poznań is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Cracovia Krakow vs Warta Poznań?
Our statistical model gives Cracovia Krakow a 46% chance of winning, Warta Poznań a 30% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Cracovia Krakow the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cracovia Krakow vs Warta Poznań?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Cracovia Krakow and Warta Poznań will score (BTTS).
Will Cracovia Krakow vs Warta Poznań have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cracovia Krakow and Warta Poznań?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Cracovia Krakow and Warta Poznań in?
Cracovia Krakow (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-D-D-W-D. Warta Poznań (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Cracovia Krakow's attack at 1.13x the league average against Warta Poznań's defence at 1.22x — combine the two and it projects 1.66 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Warta Poznań's attack (0.74x) against Cracovia Krakow's defence (1.46x) — and the away total comes out at 1.29.
These ratings are built from 10/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-2 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Cracovia Krakow Win
46%
2.18
24%
4.15
30%
3.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 0
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.66
Cracovia Krakow xG
Total xG
2.95
1.29
Warta Poznań xG
2.18
46%
Home win
4.15
24%
Draw
3.34
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.42
Clean Sheet
27%
3.64
19%
5.24
Win to Nil
13%
7.93
6%
17.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 6.8 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 11.2 | 7.3 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 9.3 | 6.0 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 5.1 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cracovia Krakow vs Warta Poznań?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Cracovia Krakow and Warta Poznań expected to score?
The model projects 1.66 expected goals for Cracovia Krakow and 1.29 for Warta Poznań, a combined total of 2.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Cracovia Krakow vs Warta Poznań?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Cracovia Krakow's recent record stands at 3W 4D 3L from 10 games, a 1.30 PPG return, with W-D-D-W-D in the last five. The sample for Cracovia Krakow is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Warta Poznań, meanwhile, have gone 1W 4D 5L across 10 games — 0.70 PPG, with D-D-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Warta Poznań is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Cracovia Krakow by 0.60 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Warta Poznań heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Cracovia Krakow have managed 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — 1.25 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Warta Poznań's away record stands at 1W 0D 3L across 4 trips, a 0.75 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cracovia Krakow come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Cracovia Krakow are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game recently; Warta Poznań are on 0.80 scored and 1.30 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cracovia Krakow have seen both teams score in 80% of their recent games; Warta Poznań in 30%.
Last 10 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cracovia Krakow
Blended
Warta Poznań
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cracovia Krakow and Warta Poznań in coming into this match?
Cracovia Krakow have gone 3W 4D 3L in their last 10 games (1.30 PPG), while Warta Poznań have gone 1W 4D 5L in their last 10 (0.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cracovia Krakow at home or Warta Poznań away?
Cracovia Krakow's home record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cracovia Krakow at home: 1.25 PPG; Warta Poznań away: 0.75 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cracovia Krakow have gone 1W 0D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Warta Poznań — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Cracovia Krakow
2
Draws
3
Warta Poznań
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cracovia Krakow and Warta Poznań?
From 6 meetings on record, Cracovia Krakow have won 1, Warta Poznań have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Cracovia Krakow and Warta Poznań last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2024, when Cracovia Krakow 0-1 Warta Poznań.
Who has won more matches between Cracovia Krakow and Warta Poznań?
Warta Poznań have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Cracovia Krakow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Warta Poznań are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cracovia Krakow 100%, Warta Poznań 0% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for Cracovia Krakow and 50% for Warta Poznań. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Warta Poznań in 75%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cracovia Krakow home games / Warta Poznań away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cracovia Krakow play Warta Poznań?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 100% of Cracovia Krakow's recent matches and 0% of Warta Poznań's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cracovia Krakow vs Warta Poznań usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Cracovia Krakow's matches and 50% of Warta Poznań's.
Do Cracovia Krakow and Warta Poznań tend to score early?
Cracovia Krakow have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Warta Poznań in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cracovia Krakow cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Warta Poznań.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cracovia Krakow beat Warta Poznań 2-0 at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego, Regular Season - 11, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cracovia Krakow 1.66 xG and Warta Poznań 1.29 xG, a combined 2.95. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Warta Poznań landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cracovia Krakow attack 1.13 / defence 1.46 against Warta Poznań attack 0.74 / defence 1.22, drawn from 10/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cracovia Krakow 46% | Draw 24% | Warta Poznań 30%, with Cracovia Krakow to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cracovia Krakow 70%, Warta Poznań 30%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cracovia Krakow's trading profile (10 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 80% of their matches — today it did not.
Warta Poznań's trading profile (10 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 30% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 60% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Cracovia Krakow arrived the stronger side — 1.30 PPG against 0.70. Form held, and they took the win. Cracovia Krakow (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. Warta Poznań (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.