Cracovia Krakow 2-1 Stal Mielec – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cracovia Krakow at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cracovia Krakow vs Stal Mielec fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Cracovia Krakow host Stal Mielec at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 17 February 2023 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Cracovia Krakow — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: W L W L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Cracovia Krakow, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Cracovia Krakow have posted 5W 2D 3L at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Stal Mielec stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W D D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Stal Mielec, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Stal Mielec's away record: 4W 1D 5L from 10 road trips in Ekstraklasa this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Cracovia Krakow at 1.50 PPG versus Stal Mielec's 1.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Cracovia Krakow's 10% rate and Stal Mielec's 30% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Cracovia Krakow have won 1, Stal Mielec 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.7 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 5 Aug 2022, ended 0–2 with Stal Mielec winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Cracovia Krakow trading profile (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Stal Mielec trading profile (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cracovia Krakow 39% versus Stal Mielec 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Cracovia Krakow 35% | Stal Mielec 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cracovia Krakow 1.26 xG and Stal Mielec 0.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cracovia Krakow attack 1.009 / defence 0.721 | Stal Mielec attack 0.882 / defence 1.064. League average goals — home 1.178 / away 1.145. Cracovia Krakow's defence rating of 0.721 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 54 Cracovia Krakow games / 54 Stal Mielec games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cracovia Krakow 47% | Draw 34% | Stal Mielec 19%. Fair-value odds: Cracovia Krakow 2.13 | Draw 2.94 | Stal Mielec 5.26. Cracovia Krakow hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (34%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.99. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.99 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Cracovia Krakow are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cracovia Krakow offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 1.99 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 32% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 39%. Form rates corroborate: Cracovia Krakow 10% | Stal Mielec 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cracovia Krakow vs Stal Mielec | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego • Kick-off: Friday 17 Feb 2023, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cracovia Krakow 47% | Draw 34% | Stal Mielec 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 39% | xG Cracovia Krakow 1.26 / Stal Mielec 0.73 • Poisson strength factors: Cracovia Krakow attack 1.009 / def 0.721 | Stal Mielec attack 0.882 / def 1.064 | league avg home 1.178 / away 1.145 • Poisson stance: Cracovia Krakow (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Cracovia Krakow xG
Expected Goals
0.73
Stal Mielec xG
39%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cracovia Krakow vs Stal Mielec kick off?
Cracovia Krakow vs Stal Mielec kicked off at 17:00 on Friday 17 February 2023 at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What was the final score in Cracovia Krakow vs Stal Mielec?
Cracovia Krakow 2 - 1 Stal Mielec.
Where is Cracovia Krakow vs Stal Mielec being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What competition is Cracovia Krakow vs Stal Mielec part of?
Cracovia Krakow vs Stal Mielec is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Cracovia Krakow vs Stal Mielec?
Our statistical model gives Cracovia Krakow a 47% chance of winning, Stal Mielec a 19% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Cracovia Krakow the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cracovia Krakow vs Stal Mielec?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Cracovia Krakow and Stal Mielec will score (BTTS).
Will Cracovia Krakow vs Stal Mielec have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cracovia Krakow and Stal Mielec?
Record (3 meetings): Cracovia Krakow 1W | Draws 1 | Stal Mielec 1W.
What form are Cracovia Krakow and Stal Mielec in?
Cracovia Krakow (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-L-W-L-D. Stal Mielec (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-D-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Cracovia Krakow's attacking strength (1.01x league average) is weighed against Stal Mielec's defensive record (1.06x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.26. The same calculation in reverse, Stal Mielec's attack versus Cracovia Krakow's defence, projects 0.73 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 15.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (15.3%), 1-1 (14.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cracovia Krakow Win
47%
2.12
34%
2.98
19%
5.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.2%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.6%
Draw
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Cracovia Krakow xG
Total xG
1.99
0.73
Stal Mielec xG
2.12
47%
Home win
2.98
34%
Draw
5.16
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.55
61%
BTTS No
1.64
Clean Sheet
48%
2.07
28%
3.54
Win to Nil
23%
4.40
5%
18.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.6 | 9.9 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.2 | 12.6 | 4.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.9 | 7.9 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.6 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cracovia Krakow vs Stal Mielec?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.6%.
How many goals are Cracovia Krakow and Stal Mielec expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Cracovia Krakow and 0.73 for Stal Mielec, a combined total of 1.99.
How confident is the prediction model for Cracovia Krakow vs Stal Mielec?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Cracovia Krakow come into this having played 54 games, going 20W 15D 19L for 1.39 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-L-D. The sample for Cracovia Krakow is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Stal Mielec sit at 1.22 PPG from 54 outings (17W 15D 22L), a run that reads W-D-D-L-D across their last five. The sample for Stal Mielec is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cracovia Krakow on 1.39 PPG, Stal Mielec on 1.22. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Cracovia Krakow's home form reads 12W 7D 8L across 27 games on their own ground, a 1.59 PPG return.
Away from home, Stal Mielec have taken 0.93 points per game from 27 outings (6W 7D 14L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cracovia Krakow come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Cracovia Krakow are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; Stal Mielec are on 1.19 scored and 1.39 conceded.
Defensively: Cracovia Krakow have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 54 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cracovia Krakow
Blended
Stal Mielec
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cracovia Krakow and Stal Mielec in coming into this match?
Cracovia Krakow have gone 20W 15D 19L in their last 54 games (1.39 PPG), while Stal Mielec have gone 17W 15D 22L in their last 54 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cracovia Krakow at home or Stal Mielec away?
Cracovia Krakow's home record (1.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cracovia Krakow at home: 1.59 PPG; Stal Mielec away: 0.93 PPG.
Have Cracovia Krakow or Stal Mielec been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cracovia Krakow have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Stal Mielec in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The last 4 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Cracovia Krakow's record when hosting Stal Mielec specifically: 1W 3D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Cracovia Krakow
5
Draws
1
Stal Mielec
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cracovia Krakow and Stal Mielec?
From 8 meetings on record, Cracovia Krakow have won 2, Stal Mielec have won 1, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Cracovia Krakow and Stal Mielec last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2025, when Stal Mielec 1-1 Cracovia Krakow.
Who has won more matches between Cracovia Krakow and Stal Mielec?
Cracovia Krakow have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cracovia Krakow see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Stal Mielec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cracovia Krakow 33%, Stal Mielec 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (Cracovia Krakow) and 48% (Stal Mielec).
On the defensive side: Cracovia Krakow keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Cracovia Krakow have failed to score in 26% of games; Stal Mielec in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cracovia Krakow home games / Stal Mielec away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cracovia Krakow play Stal Mielec?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Cracovia Krakow's recent matches and 56% of Stal Mielec's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cracovia Krakow vs Stal Mielec usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of Cracovia Krakow's recent games and 48% of Stal Mielec's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cracovia Krakow and Stal Mielec tend to score early?
Cracovia Krakow have had a goal before half-time in 59% of their recent matches, Stal Mielec in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Cracovia Krakow edge out Stal Mielec 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cracovia Krakow beat Stal Mielec 2-1 at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego, Regular Season - 21, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cracovia Krakow 1.26 xG and Stal Mielec 0.73 xG, a combined 1.99. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cracovia Krakow attack 1.01 / defence 0.72 against Stal Mielec attack 0.88 / defence 1.06, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cracovia Krakow 47% | Draw 34% | Stal Mielec 19%, with Cracovia Krakow to win its most likely call at 47%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cracovia Krakow 35%, Stal Mielec 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cracovia Krakow's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Stal Mielec's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cracovia Krakow 1.39 PPG, Stal Mielec 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cracovia Krakow win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.