Cracovia Krakow 1-1 Piast Gliwice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cracovia Krakow at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cracovia Krakow vs Piast Gliwice fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Cracovia Krakow host Piast Gliwice at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 21 July 2024 at 13:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cracovia Krakow stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Cracovia Krakow haven't played a Ekstraklasa game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Cracovia Krakow's form when playing at home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 games at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego this term (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Piast Gliwice have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D W D L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Piast Gliwice haven't played a Ekstraklasa game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Piast Gliwice's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Ekstraklasa this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Cracovia Krakow at 1.20 PPG versus Piast Gliwice's 1.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Cracovia Krakow, 3 for Piast Gliwice and 2 shared spoils from 6 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Feb 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Cracovia Krakow in-play and half-time data (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 35% of games.
Piast Gliwice in-play and half-time data (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 24% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time; they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cracovia Krakow 47% versus Piast Gliwice 47%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Cracovia Krakow 38% | Piast Gliwice 35%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cracovia Krakow 1.67 xG and Piast Gliwice 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cracovia Krakow attack 1.158 / defence 0.996 | Piast Gliwice attack 0.927 / defence 0.947. League average goals — home 1.523 / away 1.057. Data: 34 Cracovia Krakow games / 34 Piast Gliwice games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Cracovia Krakow 52% | Draw 29% | Piast Gliwice 20%. Fair-value odds: Cracovia Krakow 1.92 | Draw 3.45 | Piast Gliwice 5.00. Cracovia Krakow hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cracovia Krakow at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cracovia Krakow offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.65 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Cracovia Krakow 40% | Piast Gliwice 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (34 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cracovia Krakow vs Piast Gliwice | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Jul 2024, 13:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cracovia Krakow 52% | Draw 29% | Piast Gliwice 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 53% | xG Cracovia Krakow 1.67 / Piast Gliwice 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Cracovia Krakow attack 1.158 / def 0.996 | Piast Gliwice attack 0.927 / def 0.947 | league avg home 1.523 / away 1.057 • Poisson stance: Cracovia Krakow (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.67
Cracovia Krakow xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Piast Gliwice xG
53%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cracovia Krakow vs Piast Gliwice kick off?
Cracovia Krakow vs Piast Gliwice kicked off at 13:45 on Sunday 21 July 2024 at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What was the final score in Cracovia Krakow vs Piast Gliwice?
Cracovia Krakow 1 - 1 Piast Gliwice.
Where is Cracovia Krakow vs Piast Gliwice being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What competition is Cracovia Krakow vs Piast Gliwice part of?
Cracovia Krakow vs Piast Gliwice is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Cracovia Krakow vs Piast Gliwice?
Our statistical model gives Cracovia Krakow a 52% chance of winning, Piast Gliwice a 20% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Cracovia Krakow the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cracovia Krakow vs Piast Gliwice?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Cracovia Krakow and Piast Gliwice will score (BTTS).
Will Cracovia Krakow vs Piast Gliwice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cracovia Krakow and Piast Gliwice?
Record (6 meetings): Cracovia Krakow 1W | Draws 2 | Piast Gliwice 3W.
What form are Cracovia Krakow and Piast Gliwice in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Cracovia Krakow (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Cracovia Krakow's attack at 1.16x the league average against Piast Gliwice's defence at 0.95x — combine the two and it projects 1.67 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Piast Gliwice's attack versus Cracovia Krakow's defence, projects 0.98 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.3%), 2-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cracovia Krakow Win
52%
1.94
29%
3.50
20%
5.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
2 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.67
Cracovia Krakow xG
Total xG
2.65
0.98
Piast Gliwice xG
1.94
52%
Home win
3.50
29%
Draw
5.03
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
38%
2.66
19%
5.32
Win to Nil
19%
5.16
4%
26.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 6.9 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 11.6 | 5.6 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 9.7 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 5.4 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cracovia Krakow vs Piast Gliwice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Cracovia Krakow and Piast Gliwice expected to score?
The model projects 1.67 expected goals for Cracovia Krakow and 0.98 for Piast Gliwice, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Cracovia Krakow vs Piast Gliwice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Cracovia Krakow come into this having played 34 games, going 8W 15D 11L for 1.15 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-W-L. Cracovia Krakow haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
On the other side, Piast Gliwice sit at 1.26 PPG from 34 outings (9W 16D 9L), a run that reads W-D-W-D-L across their last five. Piast Gliwice haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cracovia Krakow on 1.15 PPG, Piast Gliwice on 1.26. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Cracovia Krakow's home form reads 5W 7D 5L across 17 games on their own ground, a 1.29 PPG return.
Away from home, Piast Gliwice have taken 0.88 points per game from 17 outings (2W 9D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cracovia Krakow come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Cracovia Krakow are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Piast Gliwice are on 1.12 scored and 1.03 conceded.
Defensively: Piast Gliwice in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 34 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cracovia Krakow
Pre-Season
Piast Gliwice
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cracovia Krakow and Piast Gliwice in coming into this match?
Cracovia Krakow have gone 8W 15D 11L in their last 34 games (1.15 PPG), while Piast Gliwice have gone 9W 16D 9L in their last 34 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cracovia Krakow at home or Piast Gliwice away?
Cracovia Krakow's home record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cracovia Krakow at home: 1.29 PPG; Piast Gliwice away: 0.88 PPG.
Have Cracovia Krakow or Piast Gliwice been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cracovia Krakow have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Piast Gliwice in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 27 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Cracovia Krakow's record when hosting Piast Gliwice specifically: 0W 2D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Cracovia Krakow
5
Draws
4
Piast Gliwice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cracovia Krakow and Piast Gliwice?
From 10 meetings on record, Cracovia Krakow have won 1, Piast Gliwice have won 4, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Cracovia Krakow and Piast Gliwice last play each other?
They last met on 27 February 2026, when Cracovia Krakow 2-3 Piast Gliwice.
Who has won more matches between Cracovia Krakow and Piast Gliwice?
Piast Gliwice have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cracovia Krakow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Piast Gliwice see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cracovia Krakow 53%, Piast Gliwice 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Cracovia Krakow) and 24% (Piast Gliwice).
On the defensive side: Piast Gliwice in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cracovia Krakow home games / Piast Gliwice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cracovia Krakow play Piast Gliwice?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Cracovia Krakow's recent matches and 47% of Piast Gliwice's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cracovia Krakow vs Piast Gliwice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Cracovia Krakow's recent games and 24% of Piast Gliwice's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cracovia Krakow and Piast Gliwice tend to score early?
Cracovia Krakow have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Piast Gliwice in 53% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cracovia Krakow and Piast Gliwice share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cracovia Krakow and Piast Gliwice finished level at 1-1 at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego, Regular Season - 1, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cracovia Krakow 1.67 xG and Piast Gliwice 0.98 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cracovia Krakow attack 1.16 / defence 1.00 against Piast Gliwice attack 0.93 / defence 0.95, drawn from 34/34 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cracovia Krakow 52% | Draw 29% | Piast Gliwice 20%, with Cracovia Krakow to win its most likely call at 52%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 37% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cracovia Krakow 38%, Piast Gliwice 35%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cracovia Krakow's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Piast Gliwice's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cracovia Krakow 1.15 PPG, Piast Gliwice 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Cracovia Krakow (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.88 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.