Cracovia Krakow 1-2 Motor Lublin – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Cracovia Krakow at 51% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Cracovia Krakow face Motor Lublin.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Cracovia Krakow and Motor Lublin meet at Stadion Cracovii im. Jozefa Pilsudskiego in Ekstraklasa (matchday 16). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 22 November 2025 at 13:45 UK time.

Form & Momentum

Cracovia Krakow have collected 1.50 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: L W L D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.

In front of their own supporters, Cracovia Krakow have posted 5W 3D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Motor Lublin (all games): 2W 5D 3L across their last 10 — 1.10 points per game. Last five: L L W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Motor Lublin away from home: 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.50 vs 1.10 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

H2H Analysis

Neither side has dominated the 2 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for Cracovia Krakow, 0 for Motor Lublin and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 4.5 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 26 Apr 2025, ended Cracovia Krakow 1–0 Motor Lublin — a Cracovia Krakow win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.5 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading

Cracovia Krakow half-time and goal-timing data (last 48 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 58%; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).

Motor Lublin half-time and goal-timing data (last 48 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Cracovia Krakow 69% and Motor Lublin 56% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cracovia Krakow 58% | Motor Lublin 54%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Cracovia Krakow surrender their half-time lead 29% of the time, while Motor Lublin have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 31% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Cracovia Krakow 1.60 xG and Motor Lublin 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cracovia Krakow attack 0.910 / defence 0.761 | Motor Lublin attack 1.008 / defence 1.086. League average goals — home 1.615 / away 1.202. Cracovia Krakow have a tight defence (rating 0.761), which is pulling Motor Lublin's projected output down. Data: built from Cracovia Krakow's last 48 games and Motor Lublin's last 48.

Result probabilities: Cracovia Krakow 51% | Draw 29% | Motor Lublin 20%. Fair-value odds: Cracovia Krakow 1.96 | Draw 3.41 | Motor Lublin 5.10. Cracovia Krakow hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Cracovia Krakow at 51% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cracovia Krakow if the outright odds are short.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.52 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though recent form (Cracovia Krakow's last 10 home games and Motor Lublin's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game points the other way.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Cracovia Krakow 50% (last 10 home games) | Motor Lublin 60% (last 10 away games).

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights