Cracovia Krakow 1-1 Miedz Legnica – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Cracovia Krakow at 65% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cracovia Krakow vs Miedz Legnica encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Cracovia Krakow host Miedz Legnica at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 1 May 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Cracovia Krakow — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: L D L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Cracovia Krakow's home record at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego: 5W 4D 1L from 10 Ekstraklasa appearances (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Cracovia Krakow are significantly better at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego than their overall form suggests.
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Miedz Legnica have recorded 1W 4D 5L from 10 outings — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Miedz Legnica have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Cracovia Krakow carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.30 vs 0.70. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Cracovia Krakow have won 0, Miedz Legnica 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Oct 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Cracovia Krakow in-play and half-time data (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games).
Miedz Legnica in-play and half-time data (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cracovia Krakow 41% versus Miedz Legnica 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cracovia Krakow 34% | Miedz Legnica 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cracovia Krakow 1.80 xG and Miedz Legnica 0.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cracovia Krakow attack 1.121 / defence 0.827 | Miedz Legnica attack 0.747 / defence 1.227. League average goals — home 1.312 / away 1.029. Miedz Legnica bring a strong defensive rating of 1.227 — this is suppressing Cracovia Krakow's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 63 Cracovia Krakow games / 29 Miedz Legnica games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cracovia Krakow 65% | Draw 24% | Miedz Legnica 12%. Fair-value odds: Cracovia Krakow 1.54 | Draw 4.17 | Miedz Legnica 8.33. The model has a clear lean to Cracovia Krakow (65%) — a 53pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Cracovia Krakow are the pick at 65% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.44 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 40% on No. Form rates corroborate: Cracovia Krakow 40% | Miedz Legnica 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cracovia Krakow vs Miedz Legnica | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego • Kick-off: Monday 1 May 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cracovia Krakow 65% | Draw 24% | Miedz Legnica 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 40% | xG Cracovia Krakow 1.80 / Miedz Legnica 0.64 • Poisson strength factors: Cracovia Krakow attack 1.121 / def 0.827 | Miedz Legnica attack 0.747 / def 1.227 | league avg home 1.312 / away 1.029 • Poisson stance: Cracovia Krakow (65%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.80
Cracovia Krakow xG
Expected Goals
0.64
Miedz Legnica xG
40%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cracovia Krakow vs Miedz Legnica kick off?
Cracovia Krakow vs Miedz Legnica kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 1 May 2023 at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What was the final score in Cracovia Krakow vs Miedz Legnica?
Cracovia Krakow 1 - 1 Miedz Legnica.
Where is Cracovia Krakow vs Miedz Legnica being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What competition is Cracovia Krakow vs Miedz Legnica part of?
Cracovia Krakow vs Miedz Legnica is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Cracovia Krakow vs Miedz Legnica?
Our statistical model gives Cracovia Krakow a 65% chance of winning, Miedz Legnica a 12% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Cracovia Krakow the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cracovia Krakow vs Miedz Legnica?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Cracovia Krakow and Miedz Legnica will score (BTTS).
Will Cracovia Krakow vs Miedz Legnica have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cracovia Krakow and Miedz Legnica?
Record (1 meetings): Cracovia Krakow 0W | Draws 1 | Miedz Legnica 0W.
What form are Cracovia Krakow and Miedz Legnica in?
Cracovia Krakow (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-L-W-W. Miedz Legnica (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Cracovia Krakow's attack rating (1.12) and Miedz Legnica's defence rating (1.23), the model arrives at 1.80 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Miedz Legnica's attack versus Cracovia Krakow's defence, projects 0.64 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 63/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 2-0 (14.2%), 1-1 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cracovia Krakow Win
65%
1.55
24%
4.22
12%
8.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
14.2%
Home win
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.80
Cracovia Krakow xG
Total xG
2.44
0.64
Miedz Legnica xG
1.55
65%
Home win
4.22
24%
Draw
8.58
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.49
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
53%
1.89
16%
6.08
Win to Nil
34%
2.92
2%
52.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 5.5 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 15.7 | 10.0 | 3.2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 14.2 | 9.0 | 2.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 8.5 | 5.4 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.9 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cracovia Krakow vs Miedz Legnica?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Cracovia Krakow and Miedz Legnica expected to score?
The model projects 1.80 expected goals for Cracovia Krakow and 0.64 for Miedz Legnica, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Cracovia Krakow vs Miedz Legnica?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 65%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Cracovia Krakow come into this having played 29 games, going 11W 8D 10L for 1.41 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-W-W.
On the other side, Miedz Legnica sit at 0.72 PPG from 29 outings (4W 9D 16L), a run that reads L-L-D-D-L across their last five.
Cracovia Krakow carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.69 PPG clear of Miedz Legnica — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Cracovia Krakow's home form reads 7W 4D 3L across 14 games on their own ground, a 1.79 PPG return.
Away from home, Miedz Legnica have taken 0.43 points per game from 14 outings (1W 3D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cracovia Krakow come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Cracovia Krakow are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Miedz Legnica are on 0.97 scored and 1.59 conceded.
Defensively: Cracovia Krakow have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 29 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cracovia Krakow
Current Season
Miedz Legnica
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cracovia Krakow and Miedz Legnica in coming into this match?
Cracovia Krakow have gone 11W 8D 10L in their last 29 games (1.41 PPG), while Miedz Legnica have gone 4W 9D 16L in their last 29 (0.72 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cracovia Krakow at home or Miedz Legnica away?
Cracovia Krakow's home record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cracovia Krakow at home: 1.79 PPG; Miedz Legnica away: 0.43 PPG.
Have Cracovia Krakow or Miedz Legnica been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cracovia Krakow have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Miedz Legnica in 10%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Cracovia Krakow and Miedz Legnica runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Cracovia Krakow
2
Draws
0
Miedz Legnica
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cracovia Krakow and Miedz Legnica?
From 2 meetings on record, Cracovia Krakow have won 0, Miedz Legnica have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Cracovia Krakow and Miedz Legnica last play each other?
They last met on 1 May 2023, when Cracovia Krakow 1-1 Miedz Legnica.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Cracovia Krakow see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Miedz Legnica are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cracovia Krakow 29%, Miedz Legnica 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 29% (Cracovia Krakow) and 50% (Miedz Legnica).
On the defensive side: Cracovia Krakow keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Cracovia Krakow have failed to score in 29% of games; Miedz Legnica in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cracovia Krakow home games / Miedz Legnica away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cracovia Krakow play Miedz Legnica?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 29% of Cracovia Krakow's recent matches and 57% of Miedz Legnica's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cracovia Krakow vs Miedz Legnica usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Cracovia Krakow's recent games and 50% of Miedz Legnica's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cracovia Krakow and Miedz Legnica tend to score early?
Cracovia Krakow have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Miedz Legnica in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cracovia Krakow and Miedz Legnica share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cracovia Krakow and Miedz Legnica finished level at 1-1 at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego, Regular Season - 30, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cracovia Krakow 1.80 xG and Miedz Legnica 0.64 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Cracovia Krakow fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cracovia Krakow attack 1.12 / defence 0.83 against Miedz Legnica attack 0.75 / defence 1.23, drawn from 63/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cracovia Krakow 65% | Draw 24% | Miedz Legnica 12%, with Cracovia Krakow to win its most likely call at 65%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cracovia Krakow 34%, Miedz Legnica 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cracovia Krakow's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Miedz Legnica's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Cracovia Krakow arrived the stronger side — 1.41 PPG against 0.72. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.