Cracovia Krakow 0-1 Lechia Gdansk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Cracovia Krakow at 62% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cracovia Krakow vs Lechia Gdansk encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ekstraklasa clash, Regular Season - 12 as Cracovia Krakow welcome Lechia Gdansk to Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego. Kick-off is set for Saturday 8 October 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Cracovia Krakow — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: L W L D W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Cracovia Krakow, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Cracovia Krakow have posted 5W 2D 3L at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Lechia Gdansk have recorded 1W 2D 7L from 10 outings — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L D L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Lechia Gdansk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Lechia Gdansk have posted 2W 1D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, Cracovia Krakow have the edge — a 0.90 PPG advantage (1.40 vs 0.50) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Cracovia Krakow have won 1, Lechia Gdansk 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Feb 2022, ended 2–0 with Cracovia Krakow winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Cracovia Krakow trading profile (44 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Lechia Gdansk trading profile (44 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cracovia Krakow 39% versus Lechia Gdansk 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cracovia Krakow 39% | Lechia Gdansk 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cracovia Krakow 1.98 xG and Lechia Gdansk 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cracovia Krakow attack 1.052 / defence 0.828 | Lechia Gdansk attack 0.956 / defence 1.376. League average goals — home 1.370 / away 1.171. Lechia Gdansk bring a strong defensive rating of 1.376 — this is suppressing Cracovia Krakow's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 45 Cracovia Krakow games / 44 Lechia Gdansk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cracovia Krakow 62% | Draw 21% | Lechia Gdansk 17%. Fair-value odds: Cracovia Krakow 1.61 | Draw 4.76 | Lechia Gdansk 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Cracovia Krakow (62%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.91. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.91 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cracovia Krakow at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.91 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Cracovia Krakow 10% | Lechia Gdansk 80%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cracovia Krakow vs Lechia Gdansk | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego • Kick-off: Saturday 8 Oct 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cracovia Krakow 62% | Draw 21% | Lechia Gdansk 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 52% | xG Cracovia Krakow 1.98 / Lechia Gdansk 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Cracovia Krakow attack 1.052 / def 0.828 | Lechia Gdansk attack 0.956 / def 1.376 | league avg home 1.370 / away 1.171 • Poisson stance: Cracovia Krakow (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.98
Cracovia Krakow xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Lechia Gdansk xG
52%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cracovia Krakow vs Lechia Gdansk kick off?
Cracovia Krakow vs Lechia Gdansk kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 8 October 2022 at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What was the final score in Cracovia Krakow vs Lechia Gdansk?
Cracovia Krakow 0 - 1 Lechia Gdansk.
Where is Cracovia Krakow vs Lechia Gdansk being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What competition is Cracovia Krakow vs Lechia Gdansk part of?
Cracovia Krakow vs Lechia Gdansk is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Cracovia Krakow vs Lechia Gdansk?
Our statistical model gives Cracovia Krakow a 62% chance of winning, Lechia Gdansk a 17% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Cracovia Krakow the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cracovia Krakow vs Lechia Gdansk?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Cracovia Krakow and Lechia Gdansk will score (BTTS).
Will Cracovia Krakow vs Lechia Gdansk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cracovia Krakow and Lechia Gdansk?
Record (2 meetings): Cracovia Krakow 1W | Draws 0 | Lechia Gdansk 1W.
What form are Cracovia Krakow and Lechia Gdansk in?
Cracovia Krakow (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-L-D-W. Lechia Gdansk (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-D-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Cracovia Krakow's attack rating (1.05) and Lechia Gdansk's defence rating (1.38), the model arrives at 1.98 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Lechia Gdansk's attack versus Cracovia Krakow's defence, projects 0.93 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.3%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.7%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cracovia Krakow Win
62%
1.61
21%
4.74
17%
5.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
10.7%
Home win
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.98
Cracovia Krakow xG
Total xG
2.91
0.93
Lechia Gdansk xG
1.61
62%
Home win
4.74
21%
Draw
5.91
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
40%
2.53
14%
7.27
Win to Nil
25%
4.08
2%
43.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 5.0 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.8 | 10.0 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.7 | 9.9 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.1 | 6.6 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.5 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cracovia Krakow vs Lechia Gdansk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are Cracovia Krakow and Lechia Gdansk expected to score?
The model projects 1.98 expected goals for Cracovia Krakow and 0.93 for Lechia Gdansk, a combined total of 2.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Cracovia Krakow vs Lechia Gdansk?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 44 outings, Cracovia Krakow have picked up 1.41 PPG on a 17W 11D 16L record — L-W-L-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Cracovia Krakow is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lechia Gdansk's form line: 17W 11D 16L from 44 games, 1.41 PPG, last five L-D-L-D-L. The sample for Lechia Gdansk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cracovia Krakow on 1.41 PPG, Lechia Gdansk on 1.41. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Cracovia Krakow have posted 1.57 PPG from 23 outings (10W 6D 7L).
On the road, Lechia Gdansk have gone 5W 5D 13L from 23 away games — 0.87 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.41 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Lechia Gdansk's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cracovia Krakow come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Cracovia Krakow are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Lechia Gdansk are on 1.39 scored and 1.36 conceded.
Last 44 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cracovia Krakow
Blended
Lechia Gdansk
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cracovia Krakow and Lechia Gdansk in coming into this match?
Cracovia Krakow have gone 17W 11D 16L in their last 44 games (1.41 PPG), while Lechia Gdansk have gone 17W 11D 16L in their last 44 (1.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cracovia Krakow at home or Lechia Gdansk away?
Cracovia Krakow's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cracovia Krakow at home: 1.57 PPG; Lechia Gdansk away: 0.87 PPG.
Have Cracovia Krakow or Lechia Gdansk been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cracovia Krakow have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Lechia Gdansk in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Cracovia Krakow and Lechia Gdansk runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 6 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Aug 2021, when Lechia Gdansk won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Cracovia Krakow's record when hosting Lechia Gdansk specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Cracovia Krakow
2
Draws
3
Lechia Gdansk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cracovia Krakow and Lechia Gdansk?
From 8 meetings on record, Cracovia Krakow have won 3, Lechia Gdansk have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Cracovia Krakow and Lechia Gdansk last play each other?
They last met on 6 February 2026, when Lechia Gdansk 1-1 Cracovia Krakow.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Cracovia Krakow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Lechia Gdansk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cracovia Krakow 39%, Lechia Gdansk 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Cracovia Krakow) and 61% (Lechia Gdansk).
On the defensive side: Cracovia Krakow keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Lechia Gdansk in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cracovia Krakow home games / Lechia Gdansk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cracovia Krakow play Lechia Gdansk?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Cracovia Krakow's recent matches and 56% of Lechia Gdansk's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cracovia Krakow vs Lechia Gdansk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Cracovia Krakow's recent games and 61% of Lechia Gdansk's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cracovia Krakow and Lechia Gdansk tend to score early?
Cracovia Krakow have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Lechia Gdansk in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Lechia Gdansk defy the odds to beat Cracovia Krakow 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lechia Gdansk beat Cracovia Krakow 0-1 at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego, Regular Season - 12, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cracovia Krakow 1.98 xG and Lechia Gdansk 0.93 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Cracovia Krakow fell 2.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cracovia Krakow attack 1.05 / defence 0.83 against Lechia Gdansk attack 0.96 / defence 1.38, drawn from 45/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cracovia Krakow 62% | Draw 21% | Lechia Gdansk 17%, with Cracovia Krakow to win its most likely call at 62%. Instead the game produced a Lechia Gdansk win, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cracovia Krakow 39%, Lechia Gdansk 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cracovia Krakow's trading profile (44 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Lechia Gdansk's trading profile (44 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cracovia Krakow 1.41 PPG, Lechia Gdansk 1.41 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lechia Gdansk win broke the near-deadlock. Cracovia Krakow (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.43 scoring average — below par going forward. Lechia Gdansk (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.87 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.