Arka Gdynia 0-0 Widzew Łódź – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Arka Gdynia at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Arka Gdynia vs Widzew Łódź fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Widzew Łódź make the trip to Stadion Miejski w Gdyni to face Arka Gdynia in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 25. The match kicks off on Sunday 15 March 2026 at 11:15 UTC.
Form
Arka Gdynia (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Arka Gdynia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Arka Gdynia at Stadion Miejski w Gdyni this season: 6W 3D 1L from 10 home games — 2.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Arka Gdynia are significantly better at Stadion Miejski w Gdyni than their overall form suggests.
Widzew Łódź have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: L W D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Widzew Łódź, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Widzew Łódź away from home this season: 3W 0D 7L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for Arka Gdynia against 1.00 for Widzew Łódź. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Arka Gdynia, 1 for Widzew Łódź and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Sep 2025, ended 0–2 with Widzew Łódź winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Arka Gdynia — key trading statistics (24 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 38% of games.
Widzew Łódź — key trading statistics (24 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Arka Gdynia 50% versus Widzew Łódź 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Arka Gdynia 58% | Widzew Łódź 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Arka Gdynia 1.41 xG and Widzew Łódź 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Arka Gdynia attack 1.062 / defence 1.146 | Widzew Łódź attack 0.931 / defence 0.946. League average goals — home 1.399 / away 1.176. Data: 24 Arka Gdynia games / 58 Widzew Łódź games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Arka Gdynia 39% | Draw 29% | Widzew Łódź 32%. Fair-value odds: Arka Gdynia 2.56 | Draw 3.45 | Widzew Łódź 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Arka Gdynia at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Arka Gdynia if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.66 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 50% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Arka Gdynia 70% | Widzew Łódź 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Arka Gdynia vs Widzew Łódź | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Stadion Miejski w Gdyni • Kick-off: Sunday 15 Mar 2026, 11:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Arka Gdynia 39% | Draw 29% | Widzew Łódź 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 55% | xG Arka Gdynia 1.41 / Widzew Łódź 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Arka Gdynia attack 1.062 / def 1.146 | Widzew Łódź attack 0.931 / def 0.946 | league avg home 1.399 / away 1.176 • Poisson stance: Arka Gdynia (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Arka Gdynia xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Widzew Łódź xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Arka Gdynia vs Widzew Łódź kick off?
Arka Gdynia vs Widzew Łódź kicked off at 11:15 on Sunday 15 March 2026 at Stadion Miejski w Gdyni.
What was the final score in Arka Gdynia vs Widzew Łódź?
Arka Gdynia 0 - 0 Widzew Łódź.
Where is Arka Gdynia vs Widzew Łódź being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski w Gdyni.
What competition is Arka Gdynia vs Widzew Łódź part of?
Arka Gdynia vs Widzew Łódź is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Arka Gdynia vs Widzew Łódź?
Our statistical model gives Arka Gdynia a 39% chance of winning, Widzew Łódź a 32% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Arka Gdynia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Arka Gdynia vs Widzew Łódź?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Arka Gdynia and Widzew Łódź will score (BTTS).
Will Arka Gdynia vs Widzew Łódź have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Arka Gdynia and Widzew Łódź?
Record (1 meetings): Arka Gdynia 0W | Draws 0 | Widzew Łódź 1W.
What form are Arka Gdynia and Widzew Łódź in?
Arka Gdynia (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-D-L-W. Widzew Łódź (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Arka Gdynia's attack rating (1.06) and Widzew Łódź's defence rating (0.95), the model arrives at 1.41 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Widzew Łódź's attack (0.93x) against Arka Gdynia's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.25.
These ratings are built from 24/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 0-0 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Arka Gdynia Win
39%
2.55
29%
3.49
32%
3.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
0 – 1
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Arka Gdynia xG
Total xG
2.66
1.25
Widzew Łódź xG
2.55
39%
Home win
3.49
29%
Draw
3.11
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
29%
3.50
25%
4.08
Win to Nil
11%
8.94
8%
12.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 8.8 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 12.3 | 7.7 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 8.7 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.1 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Arka Gdynia vs Widzew Łódź?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Arka Gdynia and Widzew Łódź expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Arka Gdynia and 1.25 for Widzew Łódź, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Arka Gdynia vs Widzew Łódź?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Arka Gdynia's recent record stands at 8W 5D 11L from 24 games, a 1.21 PPG return, with L-W-D-L-W in the last five. The sample for Arka Gdynia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Widzew Łódź, meanwhile, have gone 8W 3D 13L across 24 games — 1.12 PPG, with L-W-D-L-W in their last five. The sample for Widzew Łódź is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.21 PPG for Arka Gdynia against 1.12 for Widzew Łódź. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Arka Gdynia have managed 7W 4D 1L from 12 games — 2.08 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.21 PPG overall — Arka Gdynia are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Widzew Łódź's away record stands at 3W 0D 9L across 12 trips, a 0.75 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Arka Gdynia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Arka Gdynia are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; Widzew Łódź are on 1.29 scored and 1.42 conceded.
Last 24 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Arka Gdynia
Blended
Widzew Łódź
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Arka Gdynia and Widzew Łódź in coming into this match?
Arka Gdynia have gone 8W 5D 11L in their last 24 games (1.21 PPG), while Widzew Łódź have gone 8W 3D 13L in their last 24 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Arka Gdynia at home or Widzew Łódź away?
Arka Gdynia's home record (2.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Arka Gdynia at home: 2.08 PPG; Widzew Łódź away: 0.75 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since September 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 15 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Arka Gdynia
1
Draws
1
Widzew Łódź
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Arka Gdynia and Widzew Łódź?
From 2 meetings on record, Arka Gdynia have won 0, Widzew Łódź have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Arka Gdynia and Widzew Łódź last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2026, when Arka Gdynia 0-0 Widzew Łódź.
Who has won more matches between Arka Gdynia and Widzew Łódź?
Widzew Łódź have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Arka Gdynia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Widzew Łódź are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Arka Gdynia 75%, Widzew Łódź 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Arka Gdynia and 58% for Widzew Łódź. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Widzew Łódź in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Arka Gdynia home games / Widzew Łódź away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Arka Gdynia play Widzew Łódź?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Arka Gdynia's games and 50% of Widzew Łódź's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Arka Gdynia vs Widzew Łódź usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Arka Gdynia's matches and 58% of Widzew Łódź's.
Do Arka Gdynia and Widzew Łódź tend to score early?
Arka Gdynia have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Widzew Łódź in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Arka Gdynia's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion Miejski w Gdyni, Regular Season - 25, as Arka Gdynia and Widzew Łódź drew 0-0 in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Arka Gdynia 1.41 xG and Widzew Łódź 1.25 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Arka Gdynia fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Widzew Łódź landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Arka Gdynia attack 1.06 / defence 1.15 against Widzew Łódź attack 0.93 / defence 0.95, drawn from 24/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Arka Gdynia 39% | Draw 29% | Widzew Łódź 32%, with Arka Gdynia to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Arka Gdynia 58%, Widzew Łódź 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Arka Gdynia's trading profile (24 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Widzew Łódź's trading profile (24 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Arka Gdynia 1.21 PPG, Widzew Łódź 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Arka Gdynia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.58 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line. Widzew Łódź (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.