Arka Gdynia 0-0 Gornik Zabrze – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Arka Gdynia at 35%, yet in-form Gornik Zabrze provide a compelling counter-argument — this Arka Gdynia vs Gornik Zabrze fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Full Analysis

Stadion Miejski w Gdyni plays host to Arka Gdynia versus Gornik Zabrze in Ekstraklasa (matchday 31). Kick-off: Wednesday 13 May 2026 at 18:00 UK time.

Current Form

Arka Gdynia's record over their last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L (1.00 PPG). Last five: W D L L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Arka Gdynia's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across their last 10 home games (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Arka Gdynia are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Gornik Zabrze have collected 1.50 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: W D W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.

When travelling, Gornik Zabrze have posted 1W 5D 4L from their last 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

On a straight form reading, Gornik Zabrze are the stronger side — 0.50 PPG clear of the hosts (1.50 vs 1.00). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Arka Gdynia's last 10 home games and Gornik Zabrze's last 10 away games) — Arka Gdynia have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Gornik Zabrze in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

Head-to-Head

Neither side has dominated the 1 H2H match in our data: 0 wins for Arka Gdynia, 1 for Gornik Zabrze and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 1 H2H match in our data have been high-scoring — 6.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 2 Nov 2025, ended Arka Gdynia 1–5 Gornik Zabrze — a Gornik Zabrze win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 6.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading

Arka Gdynia half-time and goal-timing data (last 31 games, 15 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 43%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they fail to score in 39% of games.

Gornik Zabrze half-time and goal-timing data (last 31 games, 15 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 47% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Arka Gdynia 52% versus Gornik Zabrze 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Arka Gdynia 61% | Gornik Zabrze 48%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Arka Gdynia 1.27 xG and Gornik Zabrze 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Arka Gdynia attack 0.961 / defence 1.231 | Gornik Zabrze attack 0.924 / defence 0.936. League average goals — home 1.412 / away 1.103. Arka Gdynia's defence rating of 1.231 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Gornik Zabrze's projected output up. Data: built from Arka Gdynia's last 31 games and Gornik Zabrze's last 65.

Result probabilities: Arka Gdynia 35% | Draw 30% | Gornik Zabrze 34%. Fair-value odds: Arka Gdynia 2.84 | Draw 3.29 | Gornik Zabrze 2.91. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Arka Gdynia are the pick at 35% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Gornik Zabrze (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Arka Gdynia if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.52 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 54% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Arka Gdynia 70% (last 10 home games) | Gornik Zabrze 60% (last 10 away games).

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