Viking 0-0 Stromsgodset – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Viking at 63% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Viking vs Stromsgodset encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eliteserien encounter, Regular Season - 18 sees Stromsgodset travel to SR-Bank Arena to take on Viking. The game is scheduled for Thursday 12 May 2022, 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Viking stand at 8W 1D 1L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Viking's home record at SR-Bank Arena: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Eliteserien appearances (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 100% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 2.00 lags behind their overall 2.50 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at SR-Bank Arena this season.
Stromsgodset — All Games: 1W 4D 5L from 10 Eliteserien fixtures this season — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D L L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Stromsgodset have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
On current form, Viking have the edge — a 1.80 PPG advantage (2.50 vs 0.70) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Viking, 0 for Stromsgodset and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 2 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.5 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 17 Oct 2021, ended 1–0 with Viking winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Viking in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 82% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
Stromsgodset in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Viking 68% and Stromsgodset 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Viking 73% | Stromsgodset 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Viking 1.89 xG and Stromsgodset 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Viking attack 1.345 / defence 0.813 | Stromsgodset attack 0.840 / defence 0.886. League average goals — home 1.589 / away 1.200. Viking carry an above-average attack strength of 1.345 — their λ of 1.89 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 36 Viking games / 35 Stromsgodset games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Viking 63% | Draw 22% | Stromsgodset 16%. Fair-value odds: Viking 1.59 | Draw 4.55 | Stromsgodset 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Viking (63%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Viking as the most likely outcome at 63% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.71 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. This conflicts with form data: Viking 100% | Stromsgodset 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Viking vs Stromsgodset | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: SR-Bank Arena • Kick-off: Thursday 12 May 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Viking 63% | Draw 22% | Stromsgodset 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 48% | xG Viking 1.89 / Stromsgodset 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: Viking attack 1.345 / def 0.813 | Stromsgodset attack 0.840 / def 0.886 | league avg home 1.589 / away 1.200 • Poisson stance: Viking (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.89
Viking xG
Expected Goals
0.82
Stromsgodset xG
48%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Viking vs Stromsgodset kick off?
Viking vs Stromsgodset kicked off at 18:00 on Thursday 12 May 2022 at SR-Bank Arena.
What was the final score in Viking vs Stromsgodset?
Viking 0 - 0 Stromsgodset.
Where is Viking vs Stromsgodset being played?
The match is being played at SR-Bank Arena.
What competition is Viking vs Stromsgodset part of?
Viking vs Stromsgodset is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Viking vs Stromsgodset?
Our statistical model gives Viking a 63% chance of winning, Stromsgodset a 16% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Viking the favourite.
Will both teams score in Viking vs Stromsgodset?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Viking and Stromsgodset will score (BTTS).
Will Viking vs Stromsgodset have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Viking and Stromsgodset?
Record (2 meetings): Viking 1W | Draws 1 | Stromsgodset 0W.
What form are Viking and Stromsgodset in?
Viking (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-W-W-W. Stromsgodset (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Viking's attacking strength (1.34x league average) is weighed against Stromsgodset's defensive record (0.89x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.89. The same calculation in reverse, Stromsgodset's attack versus Viking's defence, projects 0.82 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 36/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 11.9%. Close behind: 1-1 (11.6%), 1-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Viking Win
63%
1.59
22%
4.61
16%
6.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.9%
Home win
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.89
Viking xG
Total xG
2.71
0.82
Stromsgodset xG
1.59
63%
Home win
4.61
22%
Draw
6.40
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
44%
2.27
15%
6.64
Win to Nil
28%
3.62
2%
42.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 5.4 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 12.6 | 10.3 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.9 | 9.7 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.5 | 6.1 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.5 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Viking vs Stromsgodset?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Viking and Stromsgodset expected to score?
The model projects 1.89 expected goals for Viking and 0.82 for Stromsgodset, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Viking vs Stromsgodset?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 60 outings, Viking have picked up 1.68 PPG on a 29W 14D 17L record — W-D-W-W-W across the most recent five.
Stromsgodset's form line: 16W 19D 25L from 60 games, 1.12 PPG, last five D-L-L-D-D.
Put side by side, Viking are the form team by 0.56 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Stromsgodset.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Viking have posted 1.83 PPG from 30 outings (16W 7D 7L).
On the road, Stromsgodset have gone 5W 9D 16L from 30 away games — 0.80 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Viking come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Viking are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.65 conceded per game recently; Stromsgodset are on 1.40 scored and 1.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Viking have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games.
Last 60 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Viking
Current Season
Stromsgodset
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Viking and Stromsgodset in coming into this match?
Viking have gone 29W 14D 17L in their last 60 games (1.68 PPG), while Stromsgodset have gone 16W 19D 25L in their last 60 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Viking at home or Stromsgodset away?
Viking's home record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Viking at home: 1.83 PPG; Stromsgodset away: 0.80 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Viking and Stromsgodset runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 2 November 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Viking have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Aug 2024, when Viking won 5-2 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Viking's record when hosting Stromsgodset specifically: 2W 3D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Viking
3
Draws
2
Stromsgodset
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Viking and Stromsgodset?
From 10 meetings on record, Viking have won 5, Stromsgodset have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Viking and Stromsgodset last play each other?
They last met on 2 November 2025, when Stromsgodset 1-2 Viking.
Who has won more matches between Viking and Stromsgodset?
Viking have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Viking are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Stromsgodset are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Viking at 80%, Stromsgodset at 57%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 77% for Viking and 60% for Stromsgodset. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Stromsgodset in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Viking home games / Stromsgodset away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Viking play Stromsgodset?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Viking's games and 57% of Stromsgodset's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Viking vs Stromsgodset usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 77% of Viking's matches and 60% of Stromsgodset's.
Do Viking and Stromsgodset tend to score early?
Viking have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Stromsgodset in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Viking's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at SR-Bank Arena, Regular Season - 18, as Viking and Stromsgodset drew 0-0 in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Viking 1.89 xG and Stromsgodset 0.82 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Viking fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Stromsgodset landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Viking attack 1.34 / defence 0.81 against Stromsgodset attack 0.84 / defence 0.89, drawn from 36/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Viking 63% | Draw 22% | Stromsgodset 16%, with Viking to win its most likely call at 63%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Viking 73%, Stromsgodset 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Viking's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.
Stromsgodset's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Viking arrived the stronger side — 1.68 PPG against 1.12. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Viking (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.27 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.47 average — tighter than their form line. Stromsgodset (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.07 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.97 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.