Viking 1-2 Sarpsborg 08 FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Viking at 66% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Viking vs Sarpsborg 08 FF encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Viking and Sarpsborg 08 FF meet at SR-Bank Arena in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 25. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 31 October 2021 at 17:00 UTC.
Current Form
Viking's overall Eliteserien record this term: 7W 2D 1L from 10 games (2.30 PPG). Last five: D W W W W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Viking, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Viking have posted 7W 2D 1L at SR-Bank Arena — 2.30 PPG. They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 100% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Sarpsborg 08 FF have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 5W 0D 5L. Last five: L W L W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.80. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sarpsborg 08 FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eliteserien this season, Sarpsborg 08 FF have posted 2W 0D 8L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form favours the hosts. Viking's 2.30 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Sarpsborg 08 FF's 1.50 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Viking have seen both teams score in 100% of their games, Sarpsborg 08 FF in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading
Viking half-time and goal-timing data (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 89% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
Sarpsborg 08 FF half-time and goal-timing data (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Viking 68% versus Sarpsborg 08 FF 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Viking 76% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Viking 2.77 xG and Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Viking attack 1.318 / defence 1.121 | Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.961 / defence 1.177. League average goals — home 1.785 / away 1.233. Viking carry an above-average attack strength of 1.318 — their λ of 2.77 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 54 Viking games / 54 Sarpsborg 08 FF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Viking 66% | Draw 19% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 15%. Fair-value odds: Viking 1.52 | Draw 5.26 | Sarpsborg 08 FF 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Viking (66%) — a 51pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 78% | BTTS probability 70% | Total xG 4.10. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 78% — a total xG of 4.10 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 70% reflects that both xG figures (2.77 / 1.33) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Viking are the pick at 66% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 4.10 combined xG gives a 78% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 70%. Form rates corroborate: Viking 100% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Viking vs Sarpsborg 08 FF | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: SR-Bank Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 31 Oct 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Viking 66% | Draw 19% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 78% | BTTS 70% | xG Viking 2.77 / Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Viking attack 1.318 / def 1.121 | Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.961 / def 1.177 | league avg home 1.785 / away 1.233 • Poisson stance: Viking (66%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.77
Viking xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
70%
BTTS
93%
Over 1.5
78%
Over 2.5
59%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Viking vs Sarpsborg 08 FF kick off?
Viking vs Sarpsborg 08 FF kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 31 October 2021 at SR-Bank Arena.
What was the final score in Viking vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Viking 1 - 2 Sarpsborg 08 FF.
Where is Viking vs Sarpsborg 08 FF being played?
The match is being played at SR-Bank Arena.
What competition is Viking vs Sarpsborg 08 FF part of?
Viking vs Sarpsborg 08 FF is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Viking vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Our statistical model gives Viking a 66% chance of winning, Sarpsborg 08 FF a 15% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Viking the favourite.
Will both teams score in Viking vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Our model estimates a 70% probability that both Viking and Sarpsborg 08 FF will score (BTTS).
Will Viking vs Sarpsborg 08 FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 78%.
What is the head-to-head record between Viking and Sarpsborg 08 FF?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Viking and Sarpsborg 08 FF in?
Viking (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-W-W-W. Sarpsborg 08 FF (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Viking's attack at 1.32x the league average against Sarpsborg 08 FF's defence at 1.18x — combine the two and it projects 2.77 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Sarpsborg 08 FF's attack (0.96x) against Viking's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 1.33.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 8.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 3-1 (7.8%), 1-1 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 23% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Viking Win
66%
1.51
19%
5.22
15%
6.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
7.8%
Home win
2 – 0
6.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.77
Viking xG
Total xG
4.10
1.33
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
1.51
66%
Home win
5.22
19%
Draw
6.83
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
92%
Over 1.5
1.09
8%
Under 1.5
12.50
78%
Over 2.5
1.28
22%
Under 2.5
4.55
59%
Over 3.5
1.69
41%
Under 3.5
2.44
39%
Over 4.5
2.56
61%
Under 4.5
1.64
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
70%
BTTS Yes
1.42
30%
BTTS No
3.37
Clean Sheet
27%
3.77
6%
15.94
Win to Nil
18%
5.70
1%
108.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 4.6 | 6.1 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 8.5 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.9 | 7.8 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 4.1 | 5.4 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 2.3 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Viking vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.5%.
How many goals are Viking and Sarpsborg 08 FF expected to score?
The model projects 2.77 expected goals for Viking and 1.33 for Sarpsborg 08 FF, a combined total of 4.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Viking vs Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Viking's recent record stands at 25W 13D 16L from 54 games, a 1.63 PPG return, with D-W-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Viking is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sarpsborg 08 FF, meanwhile, have gone 16W 13D 25L across 54 games — 1.13 PPG, with L-W-L-W-W in their last five. The sample for Sarpsborg 08 FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Viking by 0.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Sarpsborg 08 FF heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Viking have managed 15W 6D 6L from 27 games — 1.89 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sarpsborg 08 FF's away record stands at 5W 6D 16L across 27 trips, a 0.78 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Viking come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Viking are averaging 1.91 goals scored and 1.72 conceded per game recently; Sarpsborg 08 FF are on 1.13 scored and 1.48 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Viking have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games.
Last 54 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Viking
Blended
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Viking and Sarpsborg 08 FF in coming into this match?
Viking have gone 25W 13D 16L in their last 54 games (1.63 PPG), while Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 16W 13D 25L in their last 54 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Viking at home or Sarpsborg 08 FF away?
Viking's home record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Viking at home: 1.89 PPG; Sarpsborg 08 FF away: 0.78 PPG.
Have Viking or Sarpsborg 08 FF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Viking have kept a clean sheet in 15% of their recent games, Sarpsborg 08 FF in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 12 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Viking have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Sarpsborg 08 FF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Viking
2
Draws
3
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Viking and Sarpsborg 08 FF?
From 10 meetings on record, Viking have won 5, Sarpsborg 08 FF have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Viking and Sarpsborg 08 FF last play each other?
They last met on 12 July 2026, when Sarpsborg 08 FF 1-0 Viking.
Who has won more matches between Viking and Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Viking have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Viking are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Sarpsborg 08 FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 78% for Viking, 56% for Sarpsborg 08 FF — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 78% for Viking and 52% for Sarpsborg 08 FF. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 52% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sarpsborg 08 FF in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Viking home games / Sarpsborg 08 FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Viking play Sarpsborg 08 FF?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 78% of Viking's games and 56% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Viking vs Sarpsborg 08 FF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 78% of Viking's matches and 52% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's.
Do Viking and Sarpsborg 08 FF tend to score early?
Viking have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Sarpsborg 08 FF in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Sarpsborg 08 FF defy the odds to beat Viking 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sarpsborg 08 FF beat Viking 1-2 at SR-Bank Arena, Regular Season - 25, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Viking 2.77 xG and Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.33 xG, a combined 4.10. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Viking fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Viking attack 1.32 / defence 1.12 against Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.96 / defence 1.18, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Viking 66% | Draw 19% | Sarpsborg 08 FF 15%, with Viking to win its most likely call at 66%. Instead the game produced a Sarpsborg 08 FF win, an outcome the model had rated at just 15% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 78%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 93% and landed. Over 3.5 was 59% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Viking 76%, Sarpsborg 08 FF 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Viking's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Sarpsborg 08 FF's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Viking arrived the stronger side — 1.63 PPG against 1.13. Form was overturned, with Sarpsborg 08 FF winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Viking (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.33 scoring average — below par going forward. Sarpsborg 08 FF (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.93 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.04 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.