Viking 4-2 Rosenborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Viking at 47%, yet the head-to-head data favours Rosenborg — this Viking vs Rosenborg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Rosenborg make the trip to SR-Bank Arena to face Viking in Eliteserien (matchday 12). The match kicks off on Sunday 30 June 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Current Form
Viking's record over their last 10 games: 4W 1D 5L (1.30 PPG). Last five: L L W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 2.20 conceded. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Viking at home: 7W 1D 2L from their last 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Viking are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Rosenborg (all games): 3W 2D 5L across their last 10 — 1.10 points per game. Last five: W W L L W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 2.20. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
On the road, Rosenborg have gone 4W 0D 6L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.30 PPG for Viking against 1.10 for Rosenborg. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Viking's last 10 home games and Rosenborg's last 10 away games) — Viking have seen both teams score in 80% of their games, Rosenborg in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
Across the 4 H2H matches in our data, Rosenborg have the stronger record — 3 wins to Viking's 0, with 1 draw.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.5 per game across the 4 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 3 Dec 2023, ended Viking 1–5 Rosenborg — a Rosenborg win.
The H2H data backs the away side. Rosenborg have won 3 of 4 H2H matches, and at 3.5 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
Trading
Viking half-time and goal-timing data (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 95% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 65% of those occasions; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 42%; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 37%; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Rosenborg half-time and goal-timing data (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 90% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; of the 24 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Viking 68% and Rosenborg 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Viking 63% | Rosenborg 73%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Viking surrender their half-time lead 42% of the time, while Rosenborg have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 38% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Viking 1.88 xG and Rosenborg 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Viking attack 1.135 / defence 0.970 | Rosenborg attack 1.040 / defence 1.255. League average goals — home 1.317 / away 1.484. Rosenborg's defence rating of 1.255 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Viking's projected output up. Data: built from Viking's last 41 games and Rosenborg's last 41.
Result probabilities: Viking 47% | Draw 22% | Rosenborg 31%. Fair-value odds: Viking 2.14 | Draw 4.47 | Rosenborg 3.23. Viking hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS Yes probability 66% | Total xG 3.37. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.37 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% — both xG figures (1.88 / 1.50) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Viking at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Viking if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.37 combined xG gives a 65% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Viking's last 10 home games and Rosenborg's last 10 away games) averaging 3.9 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.5 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 66%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Viking 80% (last 10 home games) | Rosenborg 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Viking vs Rosenborg | Competition: Eliteserien, matchday 12 | Venue: SR-Bank Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 30 June 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Viking 47% | Draw 22% | Rosenborg 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% (Under 35%) | BTTS Yes 66% (No 34%) | xG Viking 1.88 / Rosenborg 1.50 • Poisson strength factors: Viking attack 1.135 / def 0.970 | Rosenborg attack 1.040 / def 1.255 | league avg home 1.317 / away 1.484 • Poisson stance: Viking (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.88
Viking xG
Expected Goals
1.50
Rosenborg xG
66%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Viking vs Rosenborg FAQs
What time does Viking vs Rosenborg kick off?
Viking vs Rosenborg kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Sunday 30 June 2024 at SR-Bank Arena.
What was the final score in Viking vs Rosenborg?
Viking 4 - 2 Rosenborg.
Where is Viking vs Rosenborg being played?
The match is being played at SR-Bank Arena.
What competition is Viking vs Rosenborg part of?
Viking vs Rosenborg is a Eliteserien fixture (matchday 12) (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Viking vs Rosenborg?
Our statistical model gives Viking a 47% chance of winning, Rosenborg a 31% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Viking the favourite.
Will both teams score in Viking vs Rosenborg?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Viking and Rosenborg will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Viking vs Rosenborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Viking's attacking strength (1.14x league average) is weighed against Rosenborg's defensive record (1.25x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.88. Flip it around — Rosenborg's attack (1.04x) against Viking's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 1.50.
These ratings are built from Viking's last 41 games and Rosenborg's last 41 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Viking Win
47%
2.14
22%
4.47
31%
3.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
1 – 2
7.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.88
Viking xG
Total xG
3.37
1.50
Rosenborg xG
2.14
47%
Home win
4.47
22%
Draw
3.23
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.52
34%
BTTS No
2.92
Clean Sheet
22%
4.47
15%
6.52
Win to Nil
10%
9.57
5%
21.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 5.1 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 9.6 | 7.2 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 9.0 | 6.8 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 5.6 | 4.2 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.6 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Viking vs Rosenborg Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Viking vs Rosenborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are Viking and Rosenborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.88 expected goals for Viking and 1.50 for Rosenborg, a combined total of 3.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Viking vs Rosenborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Viking's recent record stands at 27W 12D 21L from 60 games, a 1.55 PPG return, with L-L-W-W-L in the last five.
Rosenborg, meanwhile, have gone 27W 14D 19L across 60 games — 1.58 PPG, with W-W-L-L-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.55 PPG for Viking against 1.58 for Rosenborg. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Viking have managed 15W 7D 8L from their last 30 home games — 1.73 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Rosenborg's away record stands at 8W 9D 13L across their last 30 away games, a 1.10 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.58 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Rosenborg's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Viking come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Viking are averaging 1.82 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game recently; Rosenborg are on 1.92 scored and 1.57 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Viking have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games; Rosenborg in 67%.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Viking
Current Season
Rosenborg
Current Season
Viking (Home) vs Rosenborg (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Viking
Current Season
Rosenborg
Current Season
❓ Viking vs Rosenborg Form FAQs
What form are Viking and Rosenborg in coming into this match?
Viking have gone 27W 12D 21L in their last 60 games (1.55 PPG), while Rosenborg have gone 27W 14D 19L in their last 60 (1.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Viking at home or Rosenborg away?
Viking's home record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Viking at home: 1.73 PPG; Rosenborg away: 1.10 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to July 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Eliteserien. The most recent was as recently as 14 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Rosenborg won Viking 1-5 Rosenborg on 3 Dec 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Viking have gone 3W 1D 1L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Rosenborg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Viking
2
Draws
5
Rosenborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Viking vs Rosenborg H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Viking and Rosenborg?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Viking have won 3, Rosenborg have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Viking and Rosenborg last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 14 August 2026: Rosenborg 2-1 Viking.
Who has won more matches between Viking and Rosenborg?
Rosenborg have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Viking are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Rosenborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 44% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 70% for Viking, 73% for Rosenborg — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Viking and 73% for Rosenborg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 53% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Viking home games / Rosenborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Viking vs Rosenborg Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Viking and Rosenborg matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Viking's games and 73% of Rosenborg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Viking and Rosenborg matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Viking's matches and 73% of Rosenborg's.
Do Viking and Rosenborg matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Viking's recent matches and 90% of Rosenborg's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Viking cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Rosenborg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Viking beat Rosenborg 4-2 at SR-Bank Arena, Regular Season - 12, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Viking 1.88 xG and Rosenborg 1.50 xG, a combined 3.37. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Viking beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Viking attack 1.14 / defence 0.97 against Rosenborg attack 1.04 / defence 1.25, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Viking 47% | Draw 22% | Rosenborg 31%, with Viking to win its most likely call at 47%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Viking 63%, Rosenborg 73%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Viking's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Rosenborg's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Viking 1.55 PPG, Rosenborg 1.58 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Viking win broke the near-deadlock. Viking (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm. Rosenborg (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.97 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.